PnL all-time+$103kvol $925k
PnL 30d−$1,736gains $250 · losses $779
PnL 7d+$678win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate76.2%adj 63.4% · 30d 50.0%
Open value$39.8kcash n/a
Positions4 / 25open / all-time
Max drawdown−24.2%of equity peak
Account age1.0ylast trade 43d ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$114kbelow peak −$9,256Oct 9
SharpScore inputs
40/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale72
Adjusted win rateraw 76.2% · shrunk toward 50%59
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable47
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity76
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? · Noclosed+$51.5kMegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? · Noclosed+$18.7kBased FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Noclosed+$11.3kExtended FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Noopen+$8,591Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Noclosed+$7,697
Worst markets
Will Lighter reach $4 before 2027? · Noopen−$4,351Will Backpack launch a token on March 15? · Yesclosed−$3,436Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Noclosed−$2,252Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? · Noclosed−$857Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Noclosed−$779
Open positions · 4
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 40.3k | 56.2¢ | 77.5¢ | $31.2k | +$8,598 | −$6.66 | |
| Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | 10.6k | 61¢ | 75.5¢ | $7,995 | +$1,536 | $0 | |
| Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? | No | 717 | 58¢ | 83¢ | $595 | +$179 | +$724 | |
| Will Lighter reach $4 before 2027? | No | 5,306 | 82¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$4,351 | $0 |
Recent trades
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