PnL all-time+$390kvol $47.7M
PnL 30d+$8,011gains $28.4k · losses $0
PnL 7d−$1,253win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate79.8%adj 77.9% · 30d 100.0%
Open value$451kcash n/a
Positions7 / 306open / all-time
Max drawdown−24.0%of equity peak
Account age2.2ylast trade 10d ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$397kbelow peak −$80.7kOct 8
SharpScore inputs
77/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale80
Adjusted win rateraw 79.8% · shrunk toward 50%95
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable83
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d64
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity76
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? · Noclosed+$88.5kFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? · Yesclosed+$73.0kWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Noopen+$68.0kNo change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? · Yesclosed+$67.5kFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? · Yesclosed+$40.6k
Worst markets
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? · Yesclosed−$130kWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? · Yesclosed−$75.2kWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yesopen−$68.0kMarcin Tybura vs. Mick Parkin · Parkinclosed−$45.7kWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? · Noclosed−$25.4k
Open positions · 7
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 225k | 50¢ | 80.2¢ | $181k | +$68.0k | $0 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 186k | 85¢ | 84.5¢ | $157k | −$930 | +$3,760 | |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 225k | 50¢ | 19.9¢ | $44.7k | −$68.0k | $0 | |
| GTA 6 launch postponed again? | No | 36.9k | 89.1¢ | 96.2¢ | $35.4k | +$2,600 | −$178 | |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? | No | 19.0k | 92¢ | 97.4¢ | $18.5k | +$1,026 | +$40 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 10.2k | 96.3¢ | 97.2¢ | $9,862 | +$86 | $0 | |
| Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? | Yes | 4,256 | 97.5¢ | 98.5¢ | $4,190 | +$40 | $0 |
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