sharpside
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Traders/Rank #2,723

Palmfrog

0xe6e…07ea
WhalePnL 10k+WR 80+WR 70+WR 60+1y+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$14.5kvol $359k
PnL 30d−$15.5kgains $0 · losses $0
PnL 7d−$15.8kwin rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate90.5%adj 77.4% · 30d 0.0%
Open value$24.3kcash n/a
Positions26 / 68open / all-time
Max drawdown−27.5%of equity peak
Account age1.2ylast trade 8h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$15.2kbelow peak −$357Oct 10

SharpScore inputs

59/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale59
Adjusted win rateraw 90.5% · shrunk toward 50%94
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable61
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity73

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Andy Byron out as Astronomer CEO by next Friday? · Yesclosed+$6,273Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? · Noclosed+$3,856Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Noopen+$1,607Xi Jinping out in 2025? · Noclosed+$1,423Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? · Noclosed+$1,201

Worst markets

Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? · Noopen−$2,693Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025? · Noopen−$2,465Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? · Yesopen−$1,871Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yesopen−$535Will Shinjirō Koizumi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? · Yesopen−$501

Open positions · 26

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No15.5k90.1¢100¢$15.5k+$1,543+$64
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes6,25382.4¢90.5¢$5,659+$504$0
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes22.1k6.6¢10.1¢$2,218+$762$0
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Yes2,07824¢17.5¢$364−$136$0
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes1,98833.9¢15.5¢$307−$366−$169
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes1,00018¢8.6¢$87−$94$0
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes7504¢5.5¢$41+$11$0
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes1,4793.3¢2.7¢$39−$10$0
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes1,0003.2¢3.1¢$31−$1.50$0
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes1,0000.7¢2.4¢$24+$17$0
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes1,2502¢1.3¢$16−$9.13$0
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes1,0000.6¢1¢$9.50+$3.50$0
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes5001.8¢1.8¢$8.75−$0.25$0
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes1,0000.6¢0.3¢$2.50−$3.50$0
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes2504.3¢0.7¢$1.63−$9.13$0
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes1,0000.7¢0.2¢$1.50−$5.50$0
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes5000.8¢0.3¢$1.25−$2.75$0
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?No3,05088.3¢0¢$0−$2,693$0
Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025?No2,69691.4¢0¢$0−$2,465$0
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes2,50074.8¢0¢$0−$1,871$0
Fed rate cut in 2025?No1,0007¢0¢$0−$70$0
Will Shinjirō Koizumi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?Yes62080.8¢0¢$0−$501$0
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026?Yes50013¢0¢$0−$65$0
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Yes50032¢0¢$0−$160−$100
Bills vs. DolphinsBills12282¢0¢$0−$100$0
Rams vs. BroncosRams7355¢0¢$0−$40$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?10.1¢3,098$31391%59
BUY RamsRams vs. Broncos55¢73$4091%59
BUY YesPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?22.6¢600$13591%59
BUY YesPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?26.7¢678$18191%59
BUY YesWill Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?9.4¢1,596$15091%59
BUY YesWill Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?8.9¢2,000$17891%59
BUY YesWill Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?7.9¢1,000$7991%59
BUY YesWill Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?7.9¢1,000$7991%59
SELL NoWill Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?94.6¢1,500$1,41991%59
BUY YesWill Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?4.4¢214$9.4291%59
BUY YesWill Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?4.4¢535$2491%59
SELL YesWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?26.2¢1,988$52091%59
BUY YesWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?83¢750$62391%59
BUY YesWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?83¢2,003$1,66291%59
BUY SeahawksSeahawks vs. Patriots69¢250$17391%59
BUY YesWill Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?3¢1,229$3691%59
BUY YesWill Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?72.5¢800$58091%59
BUY YesWill Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?88¢900$79291%59
BUY NoSupreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?70¢781$54691%59
BUY NoSupreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?70¢500$35091%59