PnL all-time+$2,425vol $3.72M
PnL 30d−$285gains $104 · losses $0
PnL 7d+$86win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate98.6%adj 95.4% · 30d 100.0%
Open value$11.2kcash n/a
Positions8 / 293open / all-time
Max drawdown−82.1%of equity peak
Account age11molast trade 1h ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$2,132below peak −$5,262Oct 8
SharpScore inputs
63/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale48
Adjusted win rateraw 98.6% · shrunk toward 50%100
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable82
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity18
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025? · Noclosed+$980Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? · Noclosed+$727Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? · Noclosed+$436Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? · Noclosed+$404Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? · Yesclosed+$250
Worst markets
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? · Noopen−$5,989Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? · Yesopen−$310Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025? · Yesclosed−$220Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025? · Noclosed−$122Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025? · Yesclosed−$104
Open positions · 8
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | No | 4,000 | 99.8¢ | 99.9¢ | $3,994 | +$2.00 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | No | 3,000 | 99.8¢ | 99.9¢ | $2,996 | +$1.50 | $0 | |
| Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 6,000 | 39.7¢ | 34.5¢ | $2,070 | −$310 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | No | 1,272 | 99.8¢ | 99.9¢ | $1,271 | +$0.64 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | No | 649 | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | $649 | +$2.92 | $0 | |
| Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,000 | 19¢ | 15.5¢ | $155 | −$35 | $0 | |
| Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,000 | 14¢ | 11.5¢ | $115 | −$25 | $0 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | No | 6,355 | 94.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5,989 | $0 |
Recent trades
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