sharpside
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Traders/Unranked

Simon4s

0xe8a…644b
PnL 10k+1y+SportPoliticsOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$27.8kvol $6.63M
PnL 30d+$793gains $3,044 · losses $2,205
PnL 7d+$272win rate 7d 50.0%
Win rate57.6%adj 57.3% · 30d 66.1%
Open value$55.6kcash n/a
Positions98 / 8,102open / all-time
Max drawdown−9.2%of equity peak
Account age1.1ylast trade 9h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$27.3kbelow peak −$716Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

70/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale63
Adjusted win rateraw 57.6% · shrunk toward 50%43
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity91

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 98

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No53.0k50¢80.2¢$42.5k+$16.0k$0
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes53.0k50¢19.9¢$10.5k−$16.0k$0
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?No37888.5¢93.4¢$353+$18+$40
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?No30892.1¢92¢$283−$0.34+$37
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on December 31, 2026?No30970.9¢83.5¢$258+$39+$1.62
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.50 on December 31, 2026?No19368.2¢82.4¢$159+$27+$17
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?No13594.2¢98.9¢$134+$6.33+$9.05
Canada's population Up or Down this year?Down19276.4¢54.5¢$105−$42−$21
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?Yes27537.8¢33¢$91−$13+$13
Over $140B wagered on US sports betting in 2026?Yes9085.3¢68.9¢$62−$15$0
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?Yes2009.7¢30¢$60+$40+$5.50
Dana White's Contender Series: Ilias Bulaid vs. Erick Visconde (Featherweight, Main Card)Erick Visconde13744.3¢43.5¢$60−$1.07+$0.47
Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?Yes30863.2¢17¢$52−$142+$114
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026?No22378.3¢22.5¢$50−$124+$6.84
Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?No5089.5¢90.6¢$45+$0.55$0
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?No4768¢96.8¢$45+$13+$5.47
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $1.50 and $2.00 on December 31, 2026?Yes20911.4¢21.2¢$44+$20+$28
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes1037.8¢42.5¢$44+$36+$5.14
Will Josh Hokit be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Yes14029¢29.5¢$41+$0.61$0
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on December 31, 2026?No4084.8¢96.8¢$39+$4.80$0
Will Islam Makhachev remain #1 in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings?Yes3957.6¢94¢$37+$14$0
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes506¢69.3¢$35+$32+$5.15
Over $160B wagered on US sports betting in 2026?Yes5479.3¢64¢$35−$8.29+$0.70
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2026?No4095.8¢82.9¢$33−$5.14$0
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Yes20053¢16¢$32−$74$0
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Yes20048¢13.5¢$27−$69$0
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?No7310.8¢29.5¢$22+$14+$1.59
Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by December 31?No2085.5¢92.5¢$19+$1.40+$1.00
Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?Yes3084¢57.5¢$17−$7.95$0
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on December 31, 2026?Yes1025.4¢16.4¢$17+$11+$4.88
Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $7.50 on December 31, 2026?Yes1290.8¢12.2¢$16+$15+$4.68
Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.50 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?Yes3090¢51.2¢$15−$12$0
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Yes10019¢14.5¢$15−$4.50$0
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseYes5047¢28.5¢$14−$9.25$0
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Yes12035.6¢11.5¢$14−$29−$142
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?Yes13822¢9.5¢$13−$17$0
US recession by end of 2026?Yes20031¢6.5¢$13−$49+$7.46
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on December 31, 2026?Yes1738.6¢6.6¢$11−$3.40+$18
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on December 31, 2026?Yes1952.7¢5.7¢$11+$5.82$0
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?Yes15824.8¢7¢$11−$28−$20
Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Yes1667¢67.5¢$10+$0.08−$15
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $2.50 and $3.00 on December 31, 2026?Yes2613.5¢4¢$10+$1.22+$22
Over $180B wagered on US sports betting in 2026?Yes1967.5¢55.5¢$10−$2.23+$1.10
Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $6B by December 31?Yes2026¢51¢$10+$5.00$0
Will Ilia Topuria fight Paddy Pimblett next?No2056¢50.5¢$10−$1.10$0
Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $4.50 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?Yes2960¢32.5¢$9.51−$8.04+$0.01
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes8502.8¢1.1¢$8.92−$15$0
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on December 31, 2026?Yes2389.5¢3.7¢$8.80−$14+$1.66
Will Arman Tsarukyan be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Yes1007.6¢8.6¢$8.65+$1.05+$9.30
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on December 31, 2026?Yes1575.5¢5.5¢$8.62−$0.05$0
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yes15445.1¢5.5¢$8.46−$61−$86
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on December 31, 2026?Yes616.4¢12.7¢$7.80+$3.87$0
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on December 31, 2026?Yes4013¢16.5¢$6.60+$1.40$0
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Yes20017¢3.3¢$6.50−$28+$2.20
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $7.00 and $7.50 on December 31, 2026?Yes1002¢6.4¢$6.40+$4.40$0
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Yes20025¢3.1¢$6.10−$44$0
Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026?Yes11082¢4.5¢$4.89−$85−$42
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $3.00 and $3.50 on December 31, 2026?Yes734.9¢6.7¢$4.88+$1.31$0
Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $4.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?Yes3028¢16¢$4.80−$3.60$0
Will Daylight Savings Time become permanent in the US in 2026?Yes5022.3¢9¢$4.50−$6.64+$4.14
Will Ana Brnabić win the next Serbia presidential election?Yes2020¢22.5¢$4.50+$0.50$0
Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $2.50 on December 31, 2026?Yes750.9¢5.8¢$4.35+$3.68$0
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on December 31, 2026?No584¢94.5¢$4.27+$0.47−$12
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2026?Yes235.7¢18.5¢$4.25+$2.93$0
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?Yes20015¢2.1¢$4.20−$26$0
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?Yes1006¢3.9¢$3.85−$2.15$0
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $3.50 and $4.00 on December 31, 2026?Yes3268.3¢1.1¢$3.59−$23+$9.69
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $3.50 and $4.00 on December 31, 2026?Yes397.7¢9¢$3.51+$0.49+$18
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $3.00 and $3.50 on December 31, 2026?Yes2296.4¢1.5¢$3.32−$11$0
Over $200B wagered on US sports betting in 2026?Yes1235¢23.5¢$2.93−$1.43$0
Will the Golden State Warriors be the 2027 NBA Western Conference Champion?Yes1003¢2.7¢$2.65−$0.35$0
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?No5082¢5¢$2.50−$39$0
Will Ilia Topuria fight Paddy Pimblett next?Yes512¢49.5¢$2.48+$1.88$0
Will Ilia Topuria be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Yes7000.4¢0.4¢$2.45−$0.05$0
Will Ivica Dačić win the next Serbia presidential election?Yes2015¢10.5¢$2.10−$0.90$0
Will Iran legalize gay marriage?Yes1003¢1.9¢$1.85−$1.15$0
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.00 and $3.50 on December 31, 2026?Yes115.9¢16.6¢$1.74+$1.12+$1.26
Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch?Yes5014¢3.4¢$1.68−$5.33+$4.68
Will Alexander Volkanovski be the next fighter to be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings in 2026?Yes2504.4¢0.7¢$1.62−$9.37$0
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2026?Yes207¢7.7¢$1.54+$0.14$0
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?Yes991.8¢1.6¢$1.53−$0.25$0
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on December 31, 2026?Yes6610.1¢2.3¢$1.49−$5.20+$16
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.50 and $4.00 on December 31, 2026?Yes106.4¢14.4¢$1.38+$0.76+$1.58
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes18012.9¢0.8¢$1.35−$22$0
Another critical Cloudflare incident by August 31, 2026?Yes10242.6¢1.3¢$1.27−$42+$0.61
Will Max Holloway be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Yes7070.2¢0.2¢$1.06−$0.65+$1.94
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes2002.5¢0.4¢$0.70−$4.30$0
Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $4.00 on December 31, 2026?Yes101.9¢6.8¢$0.68+$0.49+$1.48
Canada's population Up or Down this year?Up115¢45.5¢$0.48+$0.32+$27
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?Yes129¢3.5¢$0.42−$0.66$0
Will Paddy Pimblett be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Yes3950.2¢0.1¢$0.39−$0.39$0
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?No4727.1¢0.8¢$0.35−$12−$0.09
Will Zdravko Ponoš win the next Serbia presidential election?Yes2014¢1¢$0.19−$2.61$0
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes1006¢0.1¢$0.10−$5.90$0
Will the Ornn B200 Index be less than $3.00 on December 31, 2026?Yes101.1¢0.6¢$0.06−$0.05$0
Will Charles Oliveira be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Yes840.3¢0.1¢$0.04−$0.20+$23
Will Aljamain Sterling be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Yes404¢0.1¢$0.02−$1.58$0
49ers vs. SeahawksSeahawks10021¢0¢$0−$21−$0.50

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY Seahawks49ers vs. Seahawks21¢100$2158%70
BUY NoFight to Go the Distance?99¢40$4058%70
BUY Saga BalloonersAlvark Tokyo vs. Saga Ballooners10¢50$5.0058%70
BUY Saga BalloonersAlvark Tokyo vs. Saga Ballooners10¢50$5.0058%70
BUY Saga BalloonersAlvark Tokyo vs. Saga Ballooners10¢50$5.0058%70
BUY Saga BalloonersAlvark Tokyo vs. Saga Ballooners10¢50$5.0058%70
BUY OverO/U 0.5 Rounds98¢977$95858%70
BUY OverO/U 1.5 Rounds98¢1,074$1,05258%70
BUY NoWill the fight be won by decision?98¢3,333$3,26658%70
BUY YesWill Roman Kopylov win by KO or TKO?99¢100$9958%70
BUY YesWill Imanol Rodriguez win in Round 1?99¢100$9958%70
BUY YesWill the fight end before Round 2?99¢97$9658%70
BUY YesWill Imanol Rodriguez win by KO or TKO?99¢108$10758%70
BUY YesWill the fight be won by KO or TKO?98¢50$4958%70
BUY NoWill Marcus McGhee win in Round 2?99¢10$9.9058%70
BUY NoWill the fight be won by submission?99¢10$9.9058%70
BUY NoWill the fight be won by decision?99¢10$9.9058%70
BUY YesWill the fight end before Round 3?99¢110$10958%70
BUY YesWill the fight be won by KO or TKO?99¢110$10958%70
BUY NoFight to Go the Distance?99¢40$4058%70