sharpside
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Traders/Rank #20,770

RogerFed

0xe95…66b7
WR 70+WR 60+1y+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$15.1kvol $914k
PnL 30d−$10.6kgains $6,399 · losses $12.4k
PnL 7d−$555win rate 7d 68.2%
Win rate71.0%adj 69.8% · 30d 70.2%
Open value$14.7kcash n/a
Positions29 / 362open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age2.2ylast trade 20h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$13.0kbelow peak −$21.4kOct 13

SharpScore inputs

40/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 71.0% · shrunk toward 50%75
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable85
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d97
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 29

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?No2,25073.2¢74.5¢$1,676+$29$0
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes1,90083.2¢85.5¢$1,624+$44+$249
Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?Yes1,69167.3¢83.5¢$1,412+$274$0
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)No1,50079.7¢87.5¢$1,313+$117−$235
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?No91787.8¢94.7¢$868+$63+$19
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?No80087.9¢97.1¢$777+$74$0
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?No1,00065.6¢70.5¢$705+$49$0
Will at least 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?No73685.6¢87¢$640+$10$0
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Yes98367.6¢63.5¢$624−$41$0
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?No76076.3¢80¢$608+$28+$219
Israel military action against Yemen by October 31?No62087.5¢89.6¢$555+$13$0
Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?No50088.6¢87¢$435−$8.00$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?No50079¢86.5¢$433+$38$0
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?No50082¢77.5¢$388−$23$0
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?No40087.2¢96.4¢$385+$36+$1.89
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes34074.3¢81.5¢$277+$25−$99
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?No40037.1¢63.5¢$254+$106+$230
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?No36460.2¢68.5¢$249+$30$0
Houthis enter Aden by November 30, 2026?No29074.3¢84.5¢$245+$30$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?Yes25088¢96.9¢$242+$22$0
Will Novak Djokovic announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?No25078.6¢93¢$232+$36$0
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes25084.5¢87.8¢$219+$8.13$0
Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?No25059¢65¢$163+$15$0
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No25553¢54.5¢$139+$3.78−$73
Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?No8092.4¢98.4¢$79+$4.83$0
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?No8371¢71.5¢$59+$0.41+$66
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026?No5083¢94.6¢$47+$5.80$0
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?No3688.8¢92.5¢$34+$1.35+$15
Will Trump say "BMW" in October?No16042.5¢2.4¢$3.84−$64$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?81¢73$5971%40
SELL NoWill Trump say "Ammunition" this week?99.2¢59$5971%40
BUY NoRussia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?81¢65$5371%40
SELL NoHouthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?94.4¢140$13271%40
BUY NoRussia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?80¢65$5271%40
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?79¢17$1371%40
BUY NoRussia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?80¢30$2471%40
SELL YesWill there be between 5 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?15¢250$3871%40
BUY YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?64¢63$4071%40
BUY NoHouthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?77¢150$11671%40
BUY YesWill there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?73.8¢133$9871%40
SELL YesWill there be between 5 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?13.3¢250$3371%40
SELL NoWill fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?88.4¢21$1871%40
SELL NoWill fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?88.5¢130$11571%40
BUY NoWill Trump say "Kim Jong Un" this week?97¢16$1571%40
BUY NoWill Trump say "Pig" or "Piggy" this week?97¢7$6.4671%40
BUY NoWill Trump say "Ammunition" this week?97¢59$5871%40
BUY NoWill Trump say "Gay" this week?97¢29$2971%40
BUY NoWill fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?87.3¢45$3971%40
SELL YesUS announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?40.9¢1,000$40971%40