PnL all-time+$4,356vol $1.84M
PnL 30d+$234gains $252 · losses $25
PnL 7d+$79win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate64.1%adj 63.5% · 30d 97.7%
Open value$1,386cash n/a
Positions2 / 586open / all-time
Max drawdown−22.7%of equity peak
Account age1.7ylast trade 10h ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$4,389below peak −$57Oct 10
SharpScore inputs
69/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale52
Adjusted win rateraw 64.1% · shrunk toward 50%59
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable92
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity77
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 11–18? · Yesclosed+$4,730Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 4–11? · Yesclosed+$4,069Will Elon tweet 165–179 times June 27–July 4? · Yesclosed+$3,483Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 20–27? · Yesclosed+$3,400Will Elon tweet 145–159 times June 13–20? · Yesclosed+$3,311
Worst markets
Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 18–25? · Yesclosed−$2,500Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 11–18? · Yesclosed−$2,226Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 4–11? · Yesclosed−$2,099Will Elon tweet less than 90 times June 27–July 4? · Yesclosed−$1,795Will Elon tweet 295 or more times June 20–27? · Yesclosed−$1,723
Open positions · 2
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | No | 1,041 | 99.6¢ | 99.8¢ | $1,038 | +$1.56 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | No | 348 | 99.3¢ | 99.7¢ | $347 | +$1.09 | $0 |
Recent trades
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