| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? | Yes | 1,988 | 79.8¢ | 80.5¢ | $1,601 | +$15 | −$28 | |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | Yes | 1,499 | 58.8¢ | 48¢ | $720 | −$161 | −$13 | |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,605 | 50¢ | 23.5¢ | $377 | −$426 | +$72 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? | Yes | 425 | 91.9¢ | 88.4¢ | $376 | −$15 | +$7.62 | |
| Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher? | Yes | 388 | 84.5¢ | 87.9¢ | $341 | +$14 | +$1.44 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher? | Yes | 360 | 89.2¢ | 89.4¢ | $322 | +$0.61 | +$1.79 | |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,500 | 24¢ | 20.5¢ | $308 | −$53 | $0 | |
| Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | No | 1,195 | 45.5¢ | 24.5¢ | $293 | −$251 | +$0.31 | |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 3,932 | 12¢ | 6.5¢ | $256 | −$215 | +$25 | |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 988 | 46.2¢ | 15.5¢ | $153 | −$303 | −$27 | |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? | Yes | 409 | 36.6¢ | 34¢ | $139 | −$11 | −$11 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? | Yes | 134 | 82.8¢ | 78.4¢ | $105 | −$6.04 | $0 | |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher? | Yes | 110 | 89.6¢ | 79¢ | $87 | −$12 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | Yes | 200 | 46¢ | 41.5¢ | $83 | −$9.00 | $0 | |
| Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher? | Yes | 80 | 94¢ | 88.5¢ | $71 | −$4.40 | $0 | |
| Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher? | Yes | 80 | 90¢ | 85.5¢ | $68 | −$3.60 | $0 | |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 250 | 41¢ | 23.5¢ | $59 | −$44 | $0 | |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 70 | 86.8¢ | 79.8¢ | $56 | −$4.95 | +$7.52 | |
| Will AI solve the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture in 2026? | Yes | 321 | 41.6¢ | 17¢ | $55 | −$79 | −$23 | |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher? | Yes | 70 | 75.9¢ | 71¢ | $50 | −$3.40 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher? | Yes | 547 | 10.2¢ | 7¢ | $38 | −$18 | −$4.91 | |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? | Yes | 100 | 71¢ | 38¢ | $38 | −$33 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 216 | 15¢ | 16¢ | $35 | +$2.16 | +$1.42 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? | Yes | 48 | 37.9¢ | 65¢ | $31 | +$13 | +$29 | |
| US plague travel ban on Russia in 2026? | Yes | 300 | 12¢ | 7.5¢ | $23 | −$14 | $0 | |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | Yes | 135 | 20.5¢ | 14.5¢ | $20 | −$8.09 | +$44 | |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 430 | 10.4¢ | 2.8¢ | $12 | −$33 | +$29 | |
| Will Google have the best Image Edit AI at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 151 | 4¢ | 7¢ | $11 | +$4.62 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? | Yes | 47 | 19¢ | 22¢ | $10 | +$1.40 | +$16 | |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher? | Yes | 50 | 16.7¢ | 20.5¢ | $10 | +$1.90 | −$0.40 | |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026? | Yes | 70 | 34¢ | 4.7¢ | $3.29 | −$21 | −$15 | |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on December 4? | No | 5,533 | 2.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$163 | −$1.86 | |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,000 and $3,100 on December 4? | Yes | 1,650 | 6.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$106 | −$8.43 | |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on December 3? | Yes | 1,500 | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.00 | $0 | |
| Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2,500 on December 3? | Yes | 1,500 | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2.00 | $0 | |
| US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? | No | 1,100 | 91.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,010 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 1,044 | 23.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$242 | −$396 | |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on December 3? | Yes | 994 | 17¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$169 | +$15 | |
| Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,500 on December 4? | Yes | 850 | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2.05 | $0 | |
| Does Ox Alpha belong to Safe Superintelligence? | Yes | 715 | 1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$7.15 | +$6.00 | |
| Will Google have the best Image Edit AI at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 657 | 6.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$43 | $0 | |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on December 4? | Yes | 650 | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.65 | $0 | |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on December 9? | No | 567 | 39.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$225 | +$2.26 | |
| Will OpenAI have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 7? | No | 518 | 68.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$354 | $0 | |
| US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? | Yes | 500 | 10¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$50 | +$7.50 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? | No | 487 | 18.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$90 | −$99 | |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026? | No | 454 | 54.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$246 | −$427 | |
| US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? | Yes | 411 | 32.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$133 | +$42 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025? | Yes | 400 | 1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$4.00 | $0 | |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on December 4? | Yes | 387 | 1.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5.42 | −$2.47 | |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on December 4? | Yes | 344 | 2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$6.88 | −$2.10 | |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 November 24-30? | Yes | 321 | 1.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$4.02 | −$5.61 | |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 November 24-30? | Yes | 321 | 4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$13 | −$3.01 | |
| Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,500 on December 10? | Yes | 309 | 3.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$12 | +$0.08 | |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,400 and $3,500 on December 10? | Yes | 309 | 14.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$44 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 3, 2026? | Yes | 300 | 82.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$246 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | No | 272 | 0.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.09 | +$0.80 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 November 24-30? | Yes | 270 | 13.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$37 | −$17 | |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? | Yes | 210 | 52¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$109 | −$18 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025? | Yes | 200 | 2.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5.75 | $0 | |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026? | Yes | 197 | 34.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$67 | −$2.12 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 November 24-30? | Yes | 197 | 1.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.05 | −$0.61 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in March 2026? | No | 193 | 88.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$170 | +$0.06 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025? | Yes | 170 | 6.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$12 | +$0.70 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? | No | 162 | 91.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$149 | −$105 | |
| OpenAI resets Codex weekly limit on September 27? | Yes | 150 | 22¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$33 | $0 | |
| US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? | Yes | 150 | 0.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.20 | $0 | |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 133 | 33.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$45 | −$300 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025? | Yes | 120 | 2.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.24 | −$1.20 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 November 24-30? | Yes | 100 | 1.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.60 | $0 | |
| Will the next GPT Sol model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 100 | 32¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$32 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025? | Yes | 100 | 1.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.90 | +$0.24 | |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 80 | 27¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$22 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025? | Yes | 73 | 1.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.15 | −$1.88 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026? | No | 72 | 65.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$47 | −$52 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025? | Yes | 70 | 5.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$4.00 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025? | Yes | 60 | 2.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.68 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025? | Yes | 54 | 3.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2.13 | +$46 | |
| Will xAI have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 7? | Yes | 50 | 5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2.50 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025? | Yes | 50 | 4.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2.10 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025? | Yes | 50 | 2.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.25 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025? | Yes | 50 | 2.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.42 | −$2.82 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025? | Yes | 40 | 3.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.25 | +$12 | |
| Will the next GPT Sol model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 40 | 41¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$16 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 39 | 14¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5.46 | −$1.97 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025? | Yes | 30 | 9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2.70 | +$1.80 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025? | Yes | 30 | 11¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.30 | +$1.50 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025? | Yes | 30 | 7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2.10 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025? | Yes | 30 | 3.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.11 | −$0.12 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025? | Yes | 29 | 2.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.65 | +$11 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025? | Yes | 25 | 10.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2.52 | −$1.40 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025? | Yes | 23 | 7.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.68 | +$0.67 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025? | Yes | 23 | 7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.61 | +$5.65 | |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 9, 2026? | Yes | 20 | 4.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.88 | +$35 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025? | Yes | 20 | 8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.60 | −$1.16 | |
| Will Tencent have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 7? | Yes | 20 | 8.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.78 | −$0.02 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025? | Yes | 20 | 3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.60 | −$0.10 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025? | Yes | 16 | 4.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.68 | +$8.30 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025? | Yes | 15 | 6.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.96 | $0 | |
| Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on or prior to October 1, 2026? | Yes | 14 | 2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.29 | $0 | |