PnL all-time+$4,530vol $193k
PnL 30d−$220gains $8.00 · losses $0
PnL 7d+$179win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate50.2%adj 50.2% · 30d 100.0%
Open value$8,002cash n/a
Positions12 / 216open / all-time
Max drawdown−14.6%of equity peak
Account age1.2ylast trade 11d ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$5,012below peak −$646Oct 11
SharpScore inputs
59/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale52
Adjusted win rateraw 50.2% · shrunk toward 50%26
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable78
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d63
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity85
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? · Noclosed+$5,584Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority? · Yesclosed+$691Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) finish with the third-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? · Yesclosed+$320Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? · Yesclosed+$240Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31? · Noopen+$219
Worst markets
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? · Yesclosed−$1,728Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting? · Yesclosed−$535Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? · Noclosed−$266Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? · Yesclosed−$247Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? · Yesclosed−$148
Open positions · 12
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31? | No | 5,441 | 85¢ | 89¢ | $4,842 | +$219 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? | Yes | 2,507 | 78.6¢ | 77.5¢ | $1,943 | −$28 | $0 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 1,000 | 79.8¢ | 97¢ | $969 | +$171 | +$29 | |
| Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? | Yes | 1,502 | 11.7¢ | 12.5¢ | $188 | +$12 | $0 | |
| Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? | Yes | 790 | 6.3¢ | 7.7¢ | $60 | +$11 | +$14 | |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 4,000 | 1.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$65 | −$0.59 | |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? | Yes | 500 | 0.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2.20 | +$23 | |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 400 | 25¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$100 | $0 | |
| France vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score | Yes | 200 | 52¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$104 | −$1.50 | |
| Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? | Yes | 200 | 24.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$49 | $0 | |
| Will voter turnout be 71–74% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 100 | 18¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$18 | −$6.47 | |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July? | No | 100 | 14¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$14 | $0 |
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