Traders/Rank #1,058

daroghi

0xf0b…8cab

SharpPnL 100k+PnL 50k+PnL 10k+WR 80+WR 70+WR 60+1y+PoliticsOther

Polymarket

PnL all-time+$192kvol $112M

PnL 30d+$417gains $1,280 · losses $1,062

PnL 7d+$359win rate 7d 84.2%

Win rate82.8%adj 81.5% · 30d 83.3%

Open value$4,306cash n/a

Positions2,000 / 65,589open / all-time

Max drawdown−1.2%of equity peak

Account age2.2ylast trade 4mo ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$194kbelow peak −$2,197Oct 8

SharpScore inputs

73/ 100 SharpScore · v1

Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale75

Adjusted win rateraw 82.8% · shrunk toward 50%100

Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100

Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0

Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity99

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? · Yesclosed+$431 Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? · Yesopen+$263 Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? · Yesopen+$249 Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? · Noopen+$240 Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yesopen+$213

Worst markets

Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Noclosed−$454 Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? · Noclosed−$227 Will Elon Musk / X (Twitter) acquire TikTok? · Noclosed−$142 Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? · Noopen−$142 Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? · Noclosed−$96

Open positions · 100

Market	Outcome		Avg entry	Now			Realized	Ends
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Yes	90	65.7¢	75¢	$68	+$8.40	+$7.32	3mo
Will the Republicans win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026?	No	60	98¢	98.4¢	$59	+$0.21	$0	26d 0h
Will the Democrats win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026?	Yes	60	95.9¢	97.4¢	$58	+$0.87	+$0.03	26d 0h
Will the Republican Party win the NY-20 House seat?	No	60	93.4¢	96.9¢	$58	+$2.07	$0	26d 0h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	60	32.1¢	96.5¢	$58	+$39	+$24	58d 0h
Will BNB reach $1600 by December 31, 2026?	No	60	92.5¢	95.4¢	$57	+$1.71	+$0.58	3mo
Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?	Yes	60	89¢	91.5¢	$55	+$1.50	−$9.44	26d 0h
Metamask FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	57	79¢	95.9¢	$55	+$9.63	$0	3mo
Will Trump end Department of Education before 2027?	No	55	96.5¢	96.4¢	$53	−$0.08	−$1.74	3mo
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 4,000 in 2026?	No	54	95.3¢	97.5¢	$53	+$1.17	−$27	3mo
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?	No	60	63¢	87¢	$52	+$14	+$3.04	3mo
Will J.D. Vance announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	54	92¢	95.1¢	$51	+$1.68	+$6.07	3mo
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	No	60	82¢	84.5¢	$51	+$1.48	−$5.52	26d 0h
Will Erika Kirk announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	51	93.8¢	96.5¢	$49	+$1.35	+$0.53	3mo
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	60	80¢	81.5¢	$49	+$0.90	+$7.85	3mo
Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	No	60	85¢	80.5¢	$48	−$2.70	+$0.30	26d 0h
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	60	95.6¢	79.9¢	$48	−$9.45	−$55	15mo
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	60	84¢	77.5¢	$47	−$3.88	−$7.30	3mo
Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?	No	60	65¢	74.5¢	$45	+$5.70	−$24	3mo
Felix Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	46	53.4¢	95.1¢	$44	+$19	+$2.86	ended
Negative GDP growth in 2026?	No	43	93.7¢	98¢	$42	+$1.84	−$17	4mo
Will the Republicans win the Colorado Senate race in 2026?	No	40	91.1¢	98.5¢	$39	+$2.89	+$0.18	26d 0h
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	100	80¢	36.5¢	$37	−$44	$0	26d 0h
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	60	32.3¢	59¢	$35	+$16	+$0.40	15mo
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	No	36	88¢	95¢	$34	+$2.49	−$5.81	6mo
Will the Republican Party win the CO-02 House seat?	No	32	95.6¢	97.9¢	$31	+$0.72	$0	26d 0h
Will Elon Musk get full custody of the St. Clair child?	No	30	91.1¢	96.8¢	$29	+$1.73	+$1.32	3mo
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	47	77.4¢	60.7¢	$29	−$7.92	−$8.92	3mo
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-22 House seat?	No	60	61¢	46.5¢	$28	−$8.70	$0	26d 0h
Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?	No	31	79.1¢	79¢	$24	−$0.03	+$0.26	25d 0h
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	70	37.7¢	28.7¢	$20	−$6.29	−$2.26	3mo
Will the Republican Party win the FL-27 House seat?	No	51	45¢	37¢	$19	−$4.08	+$1.44	26d 0h
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	39	95.7¢	44.7¢	$17	−$20	−$72	3mo
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-05 House seat?	Yes	51	38¢	25.5¢	$13	−$6.31	+$0.03	26d 0h
Base FDV above $6B one day after launch?	Yes	40	41.7¢	29.5¢	$12	−$4.95	+$1.14	15mo
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	60	56¢	17.5¢	$11	−$23	+$5.60	3mo
Will the Republican Party win the IN-05 House seat?	No	60	28¢	17¢	$10	−$6.60	+$0.55	26d 0h
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	60	16.9¢	16¢	$9.60	−$0.52	+$0.67	3mo
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	60	53¢	15.5¢	$9.30	−$23	+$1.40	15mo
X banned in any European country by December 31?	Yes	60	57¢	14.5¢	$8.70	−$26	+$3.44	3mo
Will the Republican Party win the NV-02 House seat?	No	33	30¢	26¢	$8.67	−$1.33	+$0.01	26d 0h
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	No	60	21¢	14.5¢	$8.63	−$3.87	+$9.28	26d 0h
Will the Republican Party win the NY-02 House seat?	No	60	42.5¢	13.5¢	$8.10	−$17	$0	26d 0h
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	60	69¢	12.5¢	$7.50	−$34	+$0.74	15mo
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?	Yes	60	35¢	12.5¢	$7.47	−$13	+$0.93	3mo
Will the Republican Party win the VA-06 House seat?	No	100	77.3¢	7¢	$7.00	−$70	+$17	26d 0h
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	60	43.9¢	11.5¢	$6.90	−$19	+$1.05	3mo
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	Yes	53	34.4¢	11¢	$5.80	−$12	+$1.20	3mo
Will the Republican Party win the TX-10 House seat?	No	59	20¢	9.5¢	$5.61	−$6.19	+$0.03	26d 0h
Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	41	10¢	13.5¢	$5.57	+$1.44	+$1.91	15mo
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?	Yes	60	25.2¢	8¢	$4.80	−$10	+$29	3mo
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	100	5¢	4.7¢	$4.70	−$0.30	+$0.94	6mo
Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?	Yes	49	24¢	9.5¢	$4.68	−$7.15	+$6.79	26d 0h
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	60	30.4¢	6.9¢	$4.11	−$14	+$3.56	3mo
US recession by end of 2026?	Yes	60	38¢	6.5¢	$3.90	−$19	+$4.42	4mo
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?	Yes	60	12.7¢	6.5¢	$3.90	−$3.73	+$2.17	6mo
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Yes	60	26.2¢	6.5¢	$3.90	−$12	+$1.57	3mo
Printr FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	45	41.2¢	8.2¢	$3.73	−$15	+$2.65	15mo
Will the Republicans win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026?	No	60	10.5¢	5.7¢	$3.39	−$2.91	+$0.20	26d 0h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	60	14¢	5.5¢	$3.30	−$5.10	+$0.01	6mo
Record crypto liquidation in 2026?	Yes	47	15¢	6.7¢	$3.13	−$3.88	+$13	3mo
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?	Yes	100	21¢	3¢	$3.00	−$18	+$0.02	3mo
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	Yes	60	38.7¢	5¢	$3.00	−$20	+$3.11	3mo
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Yes	104	12.9¢	2.8¢	$2.93	−$11	+$53	3mo
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?	Yes	60	29¢	4.5¢	$2.70	−$15	+$6.69	3mo
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	60	62¢	4.5¢	$2.70	−$34	+$0.61	3mo
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	No	60	31.5¢	4.5¢	$2.67	−$16	$0	15mo
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?	Yes	60	18.5¢	3.9¢	$2.34	−$8.76	+$2.93	3mo
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?	Yes	59	18.6¢	3.9¢	$2.27	−$8.71	+$2.11	3mo
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Brazil" before 2027?	Yes	39	13¢	5.8¢	$2.23	−$2.77	$0	3mo
Conservatives flip Liberals for Canada Seats Polls in 2026?	Yes	60	22¢	3.5¢	$2.10	−$11	+$0.71	3mo
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027?	Yes	60	9¢	3.3¢	$1.95	−$3.45	+$1.20	3mo
Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027?	Yes	59	21¢	3.3¢	$1.92	−$10	+$4.69	3mo
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?	Yes	42	20¢	4.5¢	$1.90	−$6.54	+$2.90	3mo
Will Trump pardon Martin Shkreli before 2027?	Yes	60	10¢	2.8¢	$1.68	−$4.32	+$3.07	3mo
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?	Yes	60	17¢	2.7¢	$1.59	−$8.61	+$5.26	3mo
Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027?	Yes	60	16.8¢	2.6¢	$1.56	−$8.50	$0	3mo
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	60	65.3¢	2.6¢	$1.53	−$38	−$1.52	3mo
Ripple Labs IPO before 2027?	Yes	58	11.5¢	2.7¢	$1.53	−$5.11	+$18	3mo
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026?	Yes	60	7.1¢	2.5¢	$1.47	−$2.79	+$26	3mo
Tabi FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	30	3.6¢	4.9¢	$1.46	+$0.38	+$0.36	3mo
Ledger IPO before 2027?	Yes	60	38.5¢	2.3¢	$1.35	−$22	+$1.20	3mo
Revolut IPO before 2027?	Yes	60	10.5¢	2.3¢	$1.35	−$4.95	+$0.60	3mo
Stripe IPO before 2027?	Yes	54	17¢	2.5¢	$1.32	−$7.86	+$1.30	3mo
Anduril IPO before 2027?	Yes	60	24¢	2.2¢	$1.29	−$13	+$7.89	3mo
Will Michelle Obama announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	40	10¢	3.2¢	$1.26	−$2.74	+$24	3mo
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?	Yes	35	15.1¢	3.5¢	$1.23	−$4.07	+$2.77	3mo
Anduril Industries IPO before 2027?	Yes	54	34.5¢	2.2¢	$1.16	−$17	$0	3mo
Will the Democrats win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026?	No	40	13.3¢	2.9¢	$1.16	−$4.15	+$0.28	26d 0h
Bank of England rate hike in 2026?	No	60	69¢	1.9¢	$1.14	−$40	+$18	3mo
Will Dogecoin reach $0.44 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	60	9¢	1.9¢	$1.14	−$4.26	$0	3mo
Will the Republicans win the Wyoming Senate race in 2026?	No	60	7.5¢	1.7¢	$0.99	−$3.51	$0	26d 0h
Hyperbeat FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	100	14¢	1¢	$0.95	−$13	$0	3mo
Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027?	Yes	37	33.5¢	2.5¢	$0.93	−$11	+$6.78	3mo
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	60	8.5¢	1.3¢	$0.75	−$4.37	+$218	25mo
Will Trump deport less than 200k people?	Yes	35	2.2¢	1.5¢	$0.53	−$0.26	+$0.28	5mo
Will the Republican Party win the FL-24 House seat?	Yes	35	9.9¢	1.5¢	$0.51	−$2.97	$0	26d 0h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	95	1.2¢	0.5¢	$0.43	−$0.71	+$0.01	25mo
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?	Yes	122	4.2¢	0.2¢	$0.18	−$4.95	+$2.47	3mo
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22?	Yes	60	16.1¢	0.2¢	$0.09	−$9.57	+$0.50	52d 0h

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s

Time	Side	Market	Price	Shares	Value	Trader WR	Sharp	Flags
4mo ago	SELL Yes	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 1?	6.6¢	4	$0.29	83%	73	Sharp
4mo ago	SELL No	Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?	10.6¢	4	$0.47	83%	73	Sharp
4mo ago	SELL No	Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?	71¢	3	$2.32	83%	73	Sharp
4mo ago	SELL No	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 1?	85¢	30	$26	83%	73	Sharp
4mo ago	SELL Yes	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 1?	14¢	2	$0.25	83%	73	Sharp
4mo ago	BUY No	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	9.5¢	6	$0.54	83%	73	Sharp
4mo ago	SELL No	Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Democratic Party?	75¢	30	$23	83%	73	Sharp
4mo ago	SELL Yes	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	17.5¢	15	$2.61	83%	73	Sharp
4mo ago	SELL No	Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week?	91¢	4	$3.78	83%	73	Sharp
4mo ago	SELL No	Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?	92¢	12	$11	83%	73	Sharp
4mo ago	SELL No	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	90.2¢	7	$6.31	83%	73	Sharp
4mo ago	SELL No	Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?	62¢	30	$19	83%	73	Sharp
4mo ago	SELL No	Blue wave in 2026?	25¢	2	$0.44	83%	73	Sharp
4mo ago	SELL No	Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	98.5¢	3	$2.71	83%	73	Sharp
4mo ago	SELL No	Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	98.4¢	27	$27	83%	73	Sharp
4mo ago	SELL No	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?	98.5¢	5	$4.93	83%	73	Sharp
4mo ago	SELL No	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?	98.5¢	20	$20	83%	73	Sharp
4mo ago	SELL No	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?	98.5¢	5	$4.93	83%	73	Sharp
4mo ago	SELL Yes	Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?	45¢	30	$14	83%	73	Sharp
4mo ago	SELL Yes	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 1?	5¢	30	$1.50	83%	73	Sharp