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Polymarket
PnL all-time+$226vol $49.2k
PnL 30d+$995gains $1,975 · losses $1,823
PnL 7d+$765win rate 7d 37.3%
Win rate51.9%adj 51.8% · 30d 43.8%
Open value$13.1kcash n/a
Positions346 / 712open / all-time
Max drawdown−28.7%of equity peak
Account age3molast trade 29m ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$697below peak $0Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

58/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale34
Adjusted win rateraw 51.9% · shrunk toward 50%29
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable95
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity71

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?No44995.3¢95.1¢$427−$1.25−$23
Ventuals FDV above $800M one day after launch?No35097.9¢98¢$343+$0.29$0
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $172.5B by October 31?No50062.8¢68¢$340+$26$0
Gemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026?Yes50160.9¢62¢$311+$5.52$0
StandX FDV above $5B one day after launch?No29897.2¢97.2¢$289−$0.14$0
Will NuScale announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?No29279¢89.5¢$261+$31$0
Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?No50048.6¢50.5¢$253+$9.50$0
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?No30076.7¢81.5¢$245+$15$0
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $45B by October 31?No50081.8¢47.5¢$238−$171$0
Consensys IPO closing market cap above $3B?No22994¢92.5¢$212−$3.43$0
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?No21696.6¢96.7¢$209+$0.16$0
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes20681.9¢97.9¢$201+$33$0
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?No21195.2¢95¢$200−$0.51$0
Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $4M before 2027?No25082.4¢79.8¢$200−$6.40$0
Abstract FDV above $1B one day after launch?No20097.8¢99¢$198+$2.40$0
Will XRP reach $2.80 in October?No19696.6¢99¢$194+$4.67$0
Abstract FDV above $600M one day after launch?No20091.9¢97¢$194+$10$0
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $26B?No18394.8¢95.6¢$175+$1.53$0
Ink FDV above $3B one day after launch?No15794.2¢96.9¢$152+$4.10$0
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.76% in October?No21657.9¢68¢$147+$22$0
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $1.2T by October 31?No17694.8¢81.9¢$144−$23−$56
Will Trump issue an AI Safety Executive Order by November 30?No15081.7¢94¢$141+$19$0
Ostium FDV above $700M one day after launch?No14297.7¢98.1¢$139+$0.62$0
Printr FDV above $200M one day after launch?No15090.9¢90.8¢$136−$0.15$0
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $950B by October 31?No15086.7¢88.5¢$133+$2.75$0
Pacifica FDV above $500M one day after launch?No13094.9¢94.7¢$123−$0.31$0
Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 Innovative Medicine revenue be above $17B?No20259.9¢58.5¢$118−$2.92$0
Hyperbeat FDV above $400M one day after launch?No11697.8¢97.8¢$114+$0.01$0
Hotstuff FDV above $50M one day after launch?No14078.3¢75.5¢$106−$3.90$0
Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch?No11293.7¢93.5¢$105−$0.28$0
Pacifica FDV above $800M one day after launch?No10795.3¢95.1¢$102−$0.22$0
Will Aaron Rodgers have 15.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?Yes11288¢90.5¢$101+$2.80$0
Will Hyperliquid reach $104 in October?No12338.2¢82¢$101+$54+$8.65
Will "The Social Reckoning" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Yes10095¢99.9¢$100+$4.85$0
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026?No10098.8¢99¢$99+$0.15$0
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $157.5B by October 31?Yes55922.1¢17.5¢$98−$25$0
Will Drake release a new album by October 31?No10065¢97.6¢$98+$33$0
Ventuals FDV above $1B one day after launch?No9898.5¢98.9¢$97+$0.34$0
Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2027?Yes10095.2¢96.3¢$96+$1.05$0
Will Solana reach $280 by December 31, 2026?No10095.3¢96.2¢$96+$0.90$0
Bills vs. Rams: O/U 32.5Over10090¢95.5¢$95+$5.45$0
Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 Innovative Medicine revenue be above $16.8B?Yes20037.5¢46.5¢$93+$18$0
StandX FDV above $7B one day after launch?No9097.4¢98¢$88+$0.49$0
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in October?No10081¢87¢$87+$6.00$0
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?No10087¢87¢$87$0$0
Will DeepSeek IPO by December 31, 2027?Yes11264¢77.1¢$86+$15$0
Printr FDV above $1B one day after launch?No8693.9¢97.4¢$84+$2.98$0
Will a 6.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?Yes8258¢99.5¢$82+$34$0
Will USD/JPY hit 110 (Low) in 2026?No8298.2¢96.2¢$79−$1.64$0
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $28B by October 31?No10049¢78¢$78+$29$0
Will Papertrade launch a token by June 30, 2027?Yes10071¢77.1¢$77+$6.05$0
Ventuals FDV above $300M one day after launch?No7997.6¢97.4¢$77−$0.16$0
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.73% in October?Yes24636.7¢31¢$76−$14$0
Will Bank of America (BAC) Q3 provision for credit losses be above $1.6B?No10075¢75.5¢$76+$0.50$0
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by October 31?No12485.2¢59.5¢$74−$32$0
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% before 2027?No7882.7¢92¢$72+$7.27−$39
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 32M tonnes at end of October 2026?Yes7687¢86.5¢$66−$0.38−$1.09
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?Yes30022.3¢21.5¢$65−$2.50$0
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 in October?Yes19859.6¢32.5¢$64−$53$0
Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch?Yes10060.5¢63.5¢$63+$2.99$0
Will California have more than 4.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?Yes10018¢62¢$62+$44$0
Perena FDV above $600M one day after launch?No6891¢91.1¢$61+$0.06$0
Will Hyperliquid reach $108 in October?No7490¢81¢$60−$6.62$0
Abstract FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?No6097.1¢98.7¢$59+$0.93$0
Will Jayden Reed have 1,049.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?No6489¢93¢$59+$2.54$0
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2027?Yes6096¢97.7¢$59+$0.99$0
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% before 2027?No6189¢95.5¢$58+$3.94$0
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.30% in October?No6569.6¢88.5¢$58+$12−$0.31
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.43% in October?No10070¢57.5¢$58−$13$0
Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026?Yes10050¢57¢$57+$7.00$0
Will NuScale announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?Yes29220¢19.5¢$57−$1.46$0
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.00% before 2027?No5989¢95¢$56+$3.56−$23
Will there be at least 4300 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?Yes5695¢97¢$54+$1.08$0
Will over 64 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?No5692.3¢95¢$54+$1.49−$14
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $13.5B by October 31?Yes10048¢51¢$51+$3.00$0
Will Papertrade launch a token by December 31, 2026?No10027¢50¢$50+$23$0
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?No5096¢98¢$49+$0.97$0
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.45% in October?No6065.3¢81.5¢$49+$9.70$0
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $14B by October 31?No10048¢48.5¢$49+$0.50$0
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?No5688.2¢85.9¢$48−$1.32$0
Hotstuff FDV above $20M one day after launch?Yes14019.7¢33.5¢$47+$19$0
Will Rho Labs launch a token by June 30, 2027?No9042¢52¢$47+$9.00$0
Gemini Argon released by October 14, 2026?No10049¢46.5¢$47−$2.50$0
Will Slingshot launch a token by September 30, 2027?Yes7960¢57.5¢$46−$1.97−$0.90
Will Kenneth Walker III have 724.5+ rushing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?Yes4893.5¢94.6¢$45+$0.52$0
Will Rho Labs launch a token by December 31, 2027?Yes9056¢50¢$45−$5.40$0
Cambria FDV above $30M one day after launch?No10037.5¢44¢$44+$6.49$0
Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $5M before 2027?No4989.9¢88.9¢$44−$0.51$0
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $26B by October 31?Yes11633.7¢37.5¢$43+$4.40$0
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.46% in October?Yes10227.1¢42¢$43+$15$0
Will Abstract launch a token by June 30, 2027?No4688¢92.5¢$43+$2.05−$13
Will Bijan Robinson have 1,374.5+ rushing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?Yes6251¢67.5¢$42+$10$0
Will Slingshot launch a token by June 30, 2027?No8937.9¢46.5¢$41+$7.61$0
Will XRP reach $3.00 by December 31, 2026?No4389.7¢96¢$41+$2.67$0
Hurupay FDV above $10M one day after launch?No4095¢94.5¢$38−$0.20$0
Amazon 2026 capex above $180B?Yes4094.2¢94.8¢$38+$0.22$0
Will Jaxson Dart have 19.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?No3896.2¢96.9¢$37+$0.26$0
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 34M tonnes at end of October 2026?Yes5030¢73.5¢$37+$22$0
Manchester City punishment announced by November 6?No4090¢91.5¢$37+$0.60$0
Will Cameron Ward have 15.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?Yes6937.9¢52.5¢$36+$10$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $900B by October 31?9¢100$9.0052%58
BUY NoRussia lifts diesel export ban by October 15?3¢91$2.7352%58
SELL NoRussia lifts diesel export ban by October 15?2¢2$0.0552%58
BUY YesGemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026?64¢100$6452%58
BUY YesWill Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $5.5B by October 31?42¢50$2152%58
BUY YesWill Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $157.5B by October 31?25¢20$5.0052%58
BUY YesWill Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $157.5B by October 31?25¢25$6.2552%58
BUY YesWill Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $157.5B by October 31?25¢24$6.0052%58
BUY NoGemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?48¢100$4852%58
SELL NoRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027?52¢5$2.6052%58
BUY YesWill Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $95 in October?2.6¢50$1.3052%58
BUY NoGemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?45¢100$4552%58
BUY YesGemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026?63¢100$6352%58
BUY YesGemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026?63¢100$6352%58
BUY YesGemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026?62.5¢101$6352%58
BUY YesWill Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $37.5B by October 31?4¢100$4.0052%58
SELL YesWill there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?7.6¢6$0.4452%58
BUY NoWill Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by October 31?83¢94$7852%58
BUY YesWill Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $37.5B by October 31?4¢100$4.0052%58
BUY YesWill Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $157.5B by October 31?25¢40$1052%58