Traders/Rank #3,836

rocky42017

0xf16…b7f9

PnL 10k+1y+WeatherPoliticsSportOther

Polymarket

PnL all-time+$11.7kvol $8.10M

PnL 30d−$3,205gains $3,347 · losses $1,852

PnL 7d−$1,039win rate 7d 88.0%

Win rate49.6%adj 49.6% · 30d 59.3%

Open value$4,523cash n/a

Positions201 / 5,173open / all-time

Max drawdown−70.9%of equity peak

Account age1.3ylast trade 11h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$8,142below peak −$12.2kOct 13

SharpScore inputs

52/ 100 SharpScore · v1

Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale58

Adjusted win rateraw 49.6% · shrunk toward 50%24

Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100

Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99

Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity29

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in August? · Yesclosed+$763 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · Noclosed+$367 Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? · Noclosed+$341 Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30? · Noclosed+$334 Will Warsh say "Independent" or "Independence" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28? · Noclosed+$291

Worst markets

Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? · Noclosed−$579 Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 45 and 50 million views in week 1? · Noclosed−$281 Vanta IPO before 2027? · Yesopen−$260 Fannie Mae IPO before 2027? · Yesopen−$250 Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 1? · Noopen−$241

Open positions · 100

Market	Outcome		Avg entry	Now			Realized	Ends
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	No	462	52.8¢	68.5¢	$317	+$72	$0	20d 17h
Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?	No	274	89.9¢	93.8¢	$257	+$11	−$4.63	20d 17h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on October 8?	No	254	45.5¢	100¢	$254	+$138	+$5.41	ended
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on October 1?	No	240	80.3¢	100¢	$240	+$47	+$0.87	ended
Jonathan Majors as Kang?	No	229	92.9¢	89.1¢	$204	−$8.70	$0	9mo
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on October 3?	No	198	77.9¢	100¢	$198	+$44	+$2.56	ended
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	No	436	39¢	31.5¢	$137	−$33	−$0.63	20d 17h
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	No	360	28¢	31.5¢	$113	+$13	+$12	3mo
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be greater than 2.5%?	No	215	22.4¢	50.9¢	$110	+$61	+$209	3mo
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on October 3?	No	103	43.7¢	100¢	$103	+$58	+$0.14	ended
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on October 10?	No	101	61.8¢	100¢	$101	+$38	+$6.15	ended
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MN-03 House election by 30%-35%?	Yes	300	32¢	32.5¢	$98	+$1.50	$0	20d 17h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on October 5?	No	91	45.1¢	100¢	$91	+$50	−$0.54	ended
Brie Larson as Captain Marvel?	Yes	181	50.4¢	48.5¢	$88	−$3.54	−$27	9mo
Will Trump launch a coin by December 31?	Yes	1,250	21.7¢	7¢	$87	−$184	$0	3mo
Don Cheadle as James Rhodes / War Machine?	Yes	263	0¢	30.5¢	$80	+$80	$0	9mo
Hawks vs. Pacers	Hawks	80	44¢	100¢	$80	+$45	$0	ended
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on October 10?	Yes	76	57¢	100¢	$76	+$33	+$0.78	ended
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C or higher on October 1?	No	72	92.9¢	100¢	$72	+$5.11	−$0.12	ended
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on October 1?	No	63	75.8¢	100¢	$63	+$15	+$8.29	ended
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?	Yes	291	40.1¢	20.5¢	$60	−$57	−$3.76	9mo
Will USD be between 2.5M and 3.0M Iranian rials on December 31?	Yes	221	26.4¢	26.5¢	$59	+$0.25	$0	3mo
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5)	T1	53	63¢	100¢	$53	+$20	−$0.16	ended
Will Ronaldo post about Messi by October 7?	Yes	52	7¢	100¢	$52	+$48	$0	ended
Will USD be between 3.0M and 3.5M Iranian rials on December 31?	No	55	69.1¢	93.5¢	$51	+$13	−$0.01	3mo
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on October 5?	No	48	64¢	100¢	$48	+$17	+$8.02	ended
Freddie Mac IPO before 2027?	Yes	1,050	21¢	4.6¢	$48	−$173	+$68	3mo
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	51	84.8¢	92.3¢	$47	+$3.78	−$44	15mo
Rippling IPO before 2027?	Yes	1,250	22.2¢	3.7¢	$46	−$232	+$0.69	3mo
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on October 10?	No	43	90.2¢	100¢	$43	+$4.25	$0	ended
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	300	20.7¢	14.5¢	$43	−$18	−$43	3mo
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on October 9?	No	43	78.3¢	100¢	$43	+$9.40	−$0.99	ended
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on October 10?	No	43	65.3¢	100¢	$43	+$15	+$6.12	ended
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on October 5?	No	40	66¢	100¢	$40	+$14	−$0.98	ended
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	871	23.4¢	4.5¢	$39	−$164	+$44	3mo
Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?	Yes	433	31.3¢	8.6¢	$37	−$98	+$0.51	4mo
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 22°C on October 6?	No	37	75.6¢	100¢	$37	+$9.07	+$5.77	ended
Celonis IPO before 2027?	Yes	948	23.6¢	3.8¢	$36	−$187	−$1.24	3mo
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 8?	No	36	69.2¢	100¢	$36	+$11	+$1.64	ended
Will S8UL Esports Win the 2026 Esports Content Group of the Year Award?	No	122	35¢	28.5¢	$35	−$7.93	+$3.40	ended
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on October 5?	No	33	96¢	100¢	$33	+$1.30	+$0.96	ended
Jonathan Majors as Kang?	Yes	295	0¢	10.9¢	$32	+$32	$0	9mo
Ripple Labs IPO before 2027?	Yes	1,210	17.4¢	2.7¢	$32	−$179	−$2.94	3mo
Will Anton Danko win the 2026 Poprad mayoral election?	No	193	30.2¢	16.5¢	$32	−$26	$0	10d 17h
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	299	26.7¢	10.5¢	$31	−$48	+$34	3mo
Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027?	Yes	1,158	19.4¢	2.7¢	$31	−$194	−$2.20	3mo
Andrew Garfield as Spider-Man?	Yes	91	31.2¢	30.5¢	$28	−$0.61	$0	9mo
Will Eugenio Segura Vázquez win the 2027 Quintana Roo Governor Election?	No	142	38¢	19.5¢	$28	−$26	+$8.25	8mo
Will USD be less than 2.0M Iranian rials on December 31?	Yes	268	12.1¢	9¢	$24	−$8.45	$0	3mo
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 1?	No	24	48.4¢	100¢	$24	+$12	+$2.16	ended
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on October 3?	No	24	74¢	100¢	$24	+$6.18	$0	ended
US plague travel ban on Russia in 2026?	Yes	300	10¢	7.5¢	$23	−$7.50	$0	3mo
Anduril IPO before 2027?	Yes	869	26.7¢	2.4¢	$21	−$211	+$40	3mo
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 1?	No	20	73¢	100¢	$20	+$5.49	+$0.72	ended
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on October 5?	Yes	20	25.7¢	100¢	$20	+$15	+$161	ended
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 950m and 960m by September 30?	Yes	20	98.8¢	100¢	$20	+$0.24	+$0.15	ended
Fannie Mae IPO before 2027?	Yes	1,245	21.3¢	1.6¢	$19	−$246	−$3.91	3mo
Ramp IPO before 2027?	Yes	729	30.2¢	2.3¢	$16	−$204	−$17	3mo
Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	27	63.6¢	59.3¢	$16	−$1.17	+$122	3mo
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 1?	No	15	19.5¢	100¢	$15	+$12	−$17	ended
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $20B?	Yes	452	20.5¢	3.4¢	$15	−$77	+$2.87	3mo
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-14 House seat?	No	455	7¢	3.3¢	$15	−$17	$0	20d 17h
Benedict Cumberbatch as Doctor Strange?	No	133	17¢	11¢	$15	−$7.97	$0	9mo
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on October 5?	Yes	14	31.9¢	100¢	$14	+$9.55	−$0.53	ended
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?	No	182	17¢	7.5¢	$14	−$17	−$37	3mo
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	Yes	300	10¢	4.5¢	$14	−$17	+$19	3mo
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on October 12?	No	12	27.6¢	100¢	$12	+$9.01	+$1.66	ended
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	40	33¢	30¢	$12	−$1.20	−$57	3mo
Mistral AI IPO before 2027?	Yes	621	18.1¢	2¢	$12	−$100	−$47	3mo
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	265	15.9¢	4.6¢	$12	−$30	+$7.91	3mo
Remote IPO before 2027?	Yes	347	18.4¢	3.4¢	$12	−$52	+$41	3mo
Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	27	37.2¢	40.8¢	$11	+$0.97	−$87	3mo
Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	289	4.1¢	3.7¢	$11	−$1.22	−$5.26	3mo
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on October 9?	No	11	63¢	100¢	$11	+$3.89	+$9.96	ended
Vanta IPO before 2027?	Yes	998	22.4¢	1¢	$9.98	−$214	−$46	3mo
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	300	2.5¢	3.2¢	$9.45	+$1.95	+$4.23	3mo
Ledger IPO before 2027?	Yes	408	35.2¢	2.3¢	$9.18	−$135	−$2.42	3mo
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 5?	Yes	9	33.3¢	100¢	$9.07	+$6.05	+$37	ended
Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.5M Iranian rials on December 31?	No	13	80.7¢	68¢	$9.02	−$1.68	+$2.87	3mo
Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?	Yes	9	95¢	93.9¢	$8.53	−$0.10	−$0.84	20d 17h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on October 3?	No	7	59.4¢	100¢	$6.99	+$2.84	−$8.31	ended
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on October 9?	Yes	7	50.9¢	100¢	$6.70	+$3.29	+$6.29	ended
Will Las Vegas Raiders win the 2026 AFC West?	Yes	74	14¢	8.8¢	$6.46	−$3.87	+$3.76	3mo
Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?	Yes	54	39.6¢	11.4¢	$6.11	−$15	−$82	17d 17h
Canva IPO before 2027?	Yes	203	21.4¢	2.9¢	$5.98	−$37	+$2.01	3mo
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	74	21¢	7.5¢	$5.58	−$10	+$1.11	3mo
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $16B?	Yes	183	30.5¢	2.9¢	$5.30	−$51	−$70	3mo
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $28B?	Yes	146	19¢	3.5¢	$5.10	−$23	−$2.59	3mo
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on October 1?	Yes	5	28.3¢	100¢	$4.64	+$3.33	+$36	ended
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 5?	No	5	82.9¢	100¢	$4.61	+$0.79	+$1.10	ended
Will Bad Bunny be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?	No	5	83.3¢	98.5¢	$4.46	+$0.69	+$0.09	6mo
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	No	5	54¢	89.5¢	$4.45	+$1.76	$0	3mo
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on October 3?	Yes	4	47¢	100¢	$4.13	+$2.19	$0	ended
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 5?	No	4	48.2¢	100¢	$4.00	+$2.07	+$19	ended
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	50	27.6¢	7.8¢	$3.86	−$9.90	−$66	15mo
Bank of England rate hike in 2026?	Yes	4	29¢	98.6¢	$3.45	+$2.43	+$15	3mo
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	32	17.5¢	10.5¢	$3.39	−$2.26	−$0.02	20d 17h
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?	Yes	3	87.9¢	100¢	$3.12	+$0.38	+$0.75	3mo
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	3	94.8¢	96.2¢	$3.06	+$0.04	+$5.34	3mo
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on October 10?	No	3	68¢	100¢	$3.02	+$0.97	+$1.80	ended

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s

Time	Side	Market	Price	Shares	Value	Trader WR	Sharp
11h ago	SELL No	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on October 14?	58¢	6	$3.48	50%	52
1d ago	SELL No	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	38.6¢	72	$28	50%	52
2d ago	SELL Yes	Brie Larson as Captain Marvel?	53¢	20	$11	50%	52
4d ago	SELL Royal Foxes Esports	Counter-Strike: Elite Klan vs Royal Foxes Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Regular Group C	50¢	10	$5.00	50%	52
4d ago	SELL No	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on October 9?	56¢	12	$6.72	50%	52
4d ago	SELL Yes	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on October 10?	42¢	114	$48	50%	52
4d ago	SELL Yes	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	67.3¢	93	$63	50%	52
4d ago	SELL No	Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	90.9¢	82	$75	50%	52
4d ago	SELL Yes	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	4.1¢	277	$11	50%	52
6d ago	SELL No	Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	31.9¢	110	$35	50%	52
8d ago	SELL No	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on October 5?	59¢	6	$3.54	50%	52
8d ago	SELL No	Will US GDP growth in 2026 be greater than 2.5%?	52.7¢	40	$21	50%	52
10d ago	SELL No	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on October 3?	54¢	165	$89	50%	52
11d ago	SELL No	Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	85.8¢	19	$16	50%	52
12d ago	SELL Yes	Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	24.8¢	277	$69	50%	52
12d ago	SELL No	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?	75.1¢	107	$80	50%	52
14d ago	SELL Yes	Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	50¢	57	$29	50%	52
15d ago	SELL No	Will Bad Bunny be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?	84.8¢	73	$62	50%	52
15d ago	SELL Yes	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?	22.4¢	160	$36	50%	52
15d ago	SELL No	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on September 29?	49¢	102	$50	50%	52