PnL all-time+$2,045vol $1.58M
PnL 30d+$14gains $6,460 · losses $6,540
PnL 7d−$198win rate 7d 44.4%
Win rate38.6%adj 39.0% · 30d 35.4%
Open value$843cash n/a
Positions10 / 1,203open / all-time
Max drawdown−96.6%of equity peak
Account age10molast trade 8h ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$2,049below peak −$44.4kOct 13
SharpScore inputs
41/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale47
Adjusted win rateraw 38.6% · shrunk toward 50%0
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity3
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5? · Upclosed+$3,550GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? · Noclosed+$2,372Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? · Yesclosed+$1,757Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 24, 2026? · Yesclosed+$1,063Over $32.5M committed to the RipCars public sale? · Noclosed+$1,007
Worst markets
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5? · Downclosed−$3,469US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Noclosed−$2,578Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? · Yesclosed−$923Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? · Yesclosed−$646Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? · Noclosed−$550
Open positions · 10
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between thirteen and fifteen nominating elections in the 2026 cycle? | No | 317 | 95¢ | 95¢ | $301 | −$0.04 | $0 | |
| Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle? | Yes | 328 | 86.8¢ | 91¢ | $299 | +$14 | $0 | |
| Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31? | Yes | 700 | 15¢ | 17¢ | $119 | +$14 | $0 | |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 70 | 84¢ | 87.8¢ | $61 | +$2.66 | −$1.52 | |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 2,100 | 3.9¢ | 2.1¢ | $44 | −$37 | $0 | |
| Over $3B crypto hack value in 2026? | No | 30 | 22.3¢ | 25.1¢ | $7.49 | +$0.82 | $0 | |
| Will Leonardo Badea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | Yes | 1,457 | 8.7¢ | 0.4¢ | $5.83 | −$121 | +$3.46 | |
| Will Domino's Pizza (DPZ) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 10 | 63¢ | 37¢ | $3.70 | −$2.60 | $0 | |
| Over $2.5B crypto hack value in 2026? | No | 107 | 0.7¢ | 1.4¢ | $1.45 | +$0.70 | $0 | |
| James Talarico campaigns in-person this weekend? | No | 86 | 2.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.88 | −$0.07 |
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