sharpside
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Traders/Rank #3,764

richsmith

0xf20…5eef
WR 80+WR 70+WR 60+1y+PoliticsCultureOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$4,375vol $814k
PnL 30d+$1,122gains $4,006 · losses $1,080
PnL 7d−$23win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate82.3%adj 79.9% · 30d 40.0%
Open value$4,656cash n/a
Positions55 / 304open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age1.4ylast trade 11h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$3,872below peak −$7,659Oct 9

SharpScore inputs

46/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 82.3% · shrunk toward 50%100
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable83
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d98
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 55

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes5,00091¢90.5¢$4,525−$25$0
Anthropic IPO before 2027?Yes14075.3¢77¢$108+$2.35+$15
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?Yes2487¢95.6¢$23+$2.09$0
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes281k0.8¢0¢$0−$2,208−$110
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes24.8k17.2¢0¢$0−$4,254−$150
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes5,00913.9¢0¢$0−$696−$105
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12?Yes50039.9¢0¢$0−$199−$161
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?Yes50044¢0¢$0−$220$0
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Yes5000.7¢0¢$0−$3.50$0
Will EA say "Jared / Kushner" during earnings call?Yes35016.6¢0¢$0−$58$0
Colts vs. SteelersColts32362¢0¢$0−$200$0
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?No29914¢0¢$0−$42−$965
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025?Yes27731.4¢0¢$0−$87$0
Will Zohran Mamdani praise Donald Trump on Friday?Yes2600.4¢0¢$0−$1.04$0
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?Yes25017.3¢0¢$0−$43+$289
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025?Yes23512.6¢0¢$0−$30$0
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025?Yes2357.1¢0¢$0−$17$0
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?Yes2005.1¢0¢$0−$10$0
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?Yes15426.7¢0¢$0−$41$0
Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31?Yes15463.1¢0¢$0−$97−$0.65
Broncos vs. CommandersCommanders15011¢0¢$0−$17+$4.17
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?Yes1145.2¢0¢$0−$5.92−$0.22
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?Yes11188.8¢0¢$0−$98$0
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?No10031.5¢0¢$0−$32$0
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 8?No4859.5¢0¢$0−$29−$34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Yes4533¢0¢$0−$15$0
Will Trump say "Pilgrim" at the Turkey Pardon on Tuesday?Yes3010.7¢0¢$0−$3.20$0
Ethereum above $2,500 on May 16?No2862¢0¢$0−$17$0
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes2575.7¢0¢$0−$19$0
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?Yes2564¢0¢$0−$16$0
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (October 27 - November 2)No2032¢0¢$0−$6.40$0
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?Yes1855.4¢0¢$0−$10.00$0
Will Trump pardon both turkeys?Yes187¢0¢$0−$1.26+$1.00
Will Starbucks say "Canada" during earnings call?No1558¢0¢$0−$8.70$0
Will Trump say "Farmer" at the Turkey Pardon on Tuesday?No1121¢0¢$0−$2.31$0
Will Roku say "Tariff" during earnings call?Yes1064¢0¢$0−$6.40$0
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?Yes1050¢0¢$0−$5.00$0
Will Shayne say "Airdrop" during 60 Minutes?Yes1014¢0¢$0−$1.40$0
Will Donald Trump say "ISIS" during Syria President events on November 10?Yes1040¢0¢$0−$4.00$0
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes1027¢0¢$0−$2.70−$0.08
Will Starbucks say "Peppermint" during earnings call?No593¢0¢$0−$4.65$0
Will Palantir say "Shutdown / Shut Down" during earnings call?Yes586¢0¢$0−$4.30$0
Will Shayne say "Mention" during 60 Minutes?Yes546¢0¢$0−$2.30$0
Will Meta say "Cloud" during earnings call?No563¢0¢$0−$3.15$0
Will Amazon say "Shutdown / Shut Down" during earnings call?Yes583¢0¢$0−$4.15$0
Will Google say "Profitability" during earnings call?No545¢0¢$0−$2.25$0
Will Starbucks say "Pumpkin Spice" during earnings call?Yes590¢0¢$0−$4.50$0
Will Jensen Huang say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times during NVIDIA keynote?Yes572.3¢0¢$0−$3.61$0
Will DraftKings say "CFTC" during earnings call?Yes592¢0¢$0−$4.60$0
Will Shayne say "Ukraine" or "Gaza" during 60 Minutes?Yes565¢0¢$0−$3.25$0
Will Shayne say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during 60 Minutes?Yes563¢0¢$0−$3.15$0
Will Shayne say "Bet on your Beliefs" during 60 Minutes?Yes537¢0¢$0−$1.85$0
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?Yes250¢0¢$0−$1.00$0
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Yes172.7¢0¢$0−$0.84−$459
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?Yes111¢0¢$0−$0.11−$8.22

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?91¢5,000$4,55082%46
SELL NoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?68¢1,086$73982%46
BUY NoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?39¢1,000$39082%46
BUY NoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?39¢4,000$1,56082%46
SELL YesWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?0.8¢2,080$1782%46
SELL YesWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?70¢739$51782%46
SELL YesWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?67¢1,042$69882%46
BUY YesWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?68¢739$50382%46
BUY YesWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?0.9¢2,080$1982%46
BUY YesWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?49¢1,042$51182%46
BUY YesWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?1¢2,000$2082%46
BUY YesWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?1¢18.0k$18082%46
BUY YesWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?1¢40.0k$40082%46
BUY YesWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?0.8¢716$5.7382%46
BUY YesWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?0.8¢40.0k$32082%46
SELL NoWill the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?86¢400$34482%46
BUY YesWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?0.8¢1,561$1282%46
SELL YesStripe IPO before 2027?3.2¢6$0.1982%46
SELL YesWill Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?22¢20$4.4082%46
SELL YesAnduril IPO before 2027?4.5¢202$9.1682%46