sharpside
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0xf2b…b26b
WR 80+WR 70+WR 60+1y+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$16.1kvol $1.04M
PnL 30d+$1,175gains $982 · losses $1.00
PnL 7d+$964win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate89.7%adj 86.3% · 30d 95.2%
Open value$34.9kcash n/a
Positions36 / 251open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age1.3ylast trade 4h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$14.2kbelow peak −$18.4kOct 10

SharpScore inputs

44/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 89.7% · shrunk toward 50%100
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable80
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 36

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No19.3k81.2¢83.5¢$16.1k+$441+$17
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?Yes4,90086.9¢91.5¢$4,483+$226$0
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?No3,67079.2¢95¢$3,486+$579+$5.97
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?Yes2,80093.3¢95.6¢$2,675+$64$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?No1,57090.7¢98.9¢$1,552+$128$0
Plague pandemic in 2026?No1,35094.6¢97.5¢$1,316+$38$0
Will the WHO declare a PHEIC for plague by November 30?No1,00094.3¢96.6¢$966+$23$0
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?No1,00086¢93.5¢$935+$75$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes60065.7¢77.5¢$465+$71$0
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes60071.1¢71.7¢$430+$3.30$0
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No41079¢95.5¢$391+$68+$2,970
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?No39792¢96.5¢$383+$18$0
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes40085.1¢87.9¢$352+$11$0
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?No32689¢94¢$306+$16$0
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No25094.7¢98.8¢$247+$10$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?No20093¢96.1¢$192+$6.10$0
Will the WHO declare a PHEIC for plague by December 31?No20091¢92.5¢$185+$3.00$0
Iran leadership change by October 31?No10095¢98.3¢$98+$3.30$0
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?No11791¢84¢$98−$8.19−$28
Microsoft announces a training pause by October 31?No10094¢97.4¢$97+$3.40$0
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?No10096.9¢96.3¢$96−$0.65$0
ByteDance announces a training pause by October 31?No6192¢98.2¢$60+$3.75$0
Meta announces a training pause by October 31?No2091¢83.8¢$17−$1.45$0
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?No15.7k92.4¢0¢$0−$14.5k−$1,164
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31?No3,80367.4¢0¢$0−$2,562$0
Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?Yes1,25762¢0¢$0−$779$0
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Yes1,12997.3¢0¢$0−$1,099−$0.89
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?No1,00098.5¢0¢$0−$985$0
Will the US next strike Iran on January 16, 2026 (ET)?Yes1,0002.8¢0¢$0−$28$0
Will Wildflower (Billie Eilish) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?No82896.8¢0¢$0−$802$0
Will Lương Tam Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?Yes6003¢0¢$0−$18$0
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to at least 20 years in prison?No50898.4¢0¢$0−$500$0
Trump renames AI by September 30?No41081.9¢0¢$0−$336−$2.43
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?No20068¢0¢$0−$136$0
Will Bill or Hillary Clinton be held in contempt of Congress by Feb 28?Yes10067¢0¢$0−$67$0
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 8?Yes2016¢0¢$0−$3.20$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoIran leadership change by October 31?98.4¢126$12490%44
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?95.5¢1,000$95590%44
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?90¢1,000$90090%44
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?93.5¢1,600$1,49690%44
BUY NoWill Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?96.9¢50$4890%44
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?94.4¢506$47890%44
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?99.1¢200$19890%44
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?96.3¢647$62390%44
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?96.2¢338$32690%44
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?96.1¢421$40590%44
SELL NoWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?57¢33$1990%44
BUY NoPlague pandemic in 2026?94.4¢20$1990%44
BUY NoPlague pandemic in 2026?93.6¢20$1990%44
BUY NoPlague pandemic in 2026?93.5¢30$2890%44
BUY NoPlague pandemic in 2026?94.9¢20$1990%44
BUY NoPlague pandemic in 2026?94.8¢146$13990%44
BUY NoPlague pandemic in 2026?93.9¢15$1490%44
BUY NoWill the WHO declare a PHEIC for plague by December 31?91¢200$18290%44
BUY NoWill the WHO declare a PHEIC for plague by November 30?94.5¢23$2290%44
BUY NoWill the WHO declare a PHEIC for plague by November 30?94.3¢100$9490%44