sharpside
LIVE--:--:-- UTCdata as of —24h vol —trades —whale trades —markets —Polymarket flow, ranked — who’s sharp, who’s early, where size is moving.
Traders/Rank #7,652

limearbs

0xf33…7e96
PoliticsSportCulture
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$139vol $30.9k
PnL 30d+$191gains $190 · losses $60
PnL 7d−$24win rate 7d 28.6%
Win rate54.9%adj 53.9% · 30d 52.0%
Open value$2,640cash n/a
Positions61 / 144open / all-time
Max drawdown−12.9%of equity peak
Account age4molast trade 11h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$228below peak −$56Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

54/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale31
Adjusted win rateraw 54.9% · shrunk toward 50%35
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable72
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d98
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity87

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election? · Yesclosed+$67Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? · Yesclosed+$59Will Myles Garrett win the 2026 NFL Defensive Player of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season? · Noopen+$54Will you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love (Olivia Rodrigo) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards? · Yesopen+$45Will Dylan Cease win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? · Yesclosed+$37

Worst markets

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves · Noopen−$101Will Michael J. Fox – “Shrinking” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a comedy series? · Yesopen−$44Will Julianne Moore win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards? · Noopen−$38Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027? · Yesopen−$38Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? · Yesclosed−$30

Open positions · 61

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Myles Garrett win the 2026 NFL Defensive Player of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season?No31479¢96.4¢$302+$54$0
Will Stephen A. Smith be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?No24094.3¢99.4¢$239+$12$0
Will Marshall Thundering Herd Win the 2026 Sun Belt Championship?No24190¢90¢$217−$0.12$0
Will The Weeknd have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?No20080¢86¢$172+$12$0
Will over 60 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?No18073¢93.5¢$168+$37$0
Will Gretchen Whitmer be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?No12689.3¢92.7¢$117+$4.30$0
Will Norway win the UEFA EURO 2028?No12493.5¢93.1¢$116−$0.46$0
Will you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love (Olivia Rodrigo) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?Yes26127¢44¢$115+$45$0
Will Julianne Moore win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?No37037.8¢27.5¢$102−$38$0
Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat?Yes13579.5¢72.5¢$98−$9.42$0
Will Ella Langley win Best New Artist at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?Yes16151.6¢54¢$87+$3.89$0
Will Leon Draisaitl win the 2026-27 Ted Lindsay Award?No8293¢94.8¢$78+$1.43$0
Will Cole Caufield win the 2026-27 Ted Lindsay Award?No6782¢95.6¢$64+$9.11$0
Will Connor McDavid win the 2026-27 Hart Memorial Trophy?No7174.6¢87.4¢$62+$9.01$0
Will Nicki Minaj release a new song in 2026?Yes9080.1¢63¢$57−$15$0
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?Yes57313.8¢9¢$52−$28$0
Will Canada have an Ebola case in 2026?No5380¢90¢$47+$5.26$0
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?Yes62313.6¢7.5¢$46−$38+$0.55
Will SZA have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?No5384.8¢86¢$46+$0.65$0
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseNo10258¢38.5¢$39−$20$0
Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Yes23519¢16.5¢$39−$5.88$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MS-02 House election by 20%-25%?Yes13814.4¢26.5¢$36+$17$0
Will Miami (FL) make College Football Playoff Semifinals?Yes7233¢50.5¢$36+$13$0
Will Frank Ocean release a new song in 2026?No3865¢79.5¢$30+$5.46$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election by 20%-25%?No3588¢84.5¢$29−$1.21$0
Will Roma win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?Yes15717.4¢15.3¢$24−$3.39$0
Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?Yes430¢52.5¢$23+$23$0
Will Marc Marquez win the 2026 MotoGP World Championship?No7624.2¢28.5¢$22+$3.31$0
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?No1569¢11.5¢$18+$3.91$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AR-03 House election by 25%-30%?Yes8323¢20¢$17−$2.52−$1.55
Will Trump pardon Diddy before 2027?Yes31410¢4.7¢$15−$17$0
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?No10314¢13.5¢$14−$0.51$0
Will "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026?No1666.6¢87.5¢$14+$3.28+$25
Will Oregon make College Football Playoff Semifinals?Yes15711.4¢8.4¢$13−$4.67$0
Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 National League Championship Series?No1850¢70.5¢$13+$3.69$0
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?Yes13628.3¢8¢$11−$28$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-33 House election by 35%-40%?Yes589.4¢14.6¢$8.42+$2.98$0
Will Mark Warner vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?Yes16514.6¢4.7¢$7.66−$16$0
Will Connor McDavid record 100+ points?No767¢7.4¢$5.59+$0.28$0
Will Nathan MacKinnon record 100+ points?No767¢7.2¢$5.51+$0.19$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OR-04 House election by 10%-15%?Yes5910.3¢9¢$5.30−$0.79$0
Will Brian Armstrong appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?Yes682.4¢7¢$4.77+$3.17$0
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes1283.3¢3.5¢$4.43+$0.19$0
Will Zach Bryan have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?No487.3¢93¢$4.08+$0.25+$3.18
Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?Yes746¢5.3¢$3.87−$0.52$0
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026-27 NHL Presidents' Trophy?Yes577¢5.9¢$3.33−$0.66+$1.14
Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in Minnesota in the 2026 midterm elections?No942¢29.5¢$2.65−$1.12$0
Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027?Yes11514¢2.2¢$2.54−$14−$11
Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?Yes525¢4.4¢$2.25−$0.34$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election by 18% or more?Yes355.3¢3.5¢$1.22−$0.64$0
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson announce a Presidential run before 2027?Yes242.5¢2.9¢$0.70+$0.10−$0.93
Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?No6155¢1.1¢$0.64−$33+$3.31
Will there be between 110m and 115m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?Yes313¢18¢$0.62+$0.17+$2.98
Will the US economy be in stagflation at the end of 2026?Yes526.4¢0.5¢$0.26−$3.02$0
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?Yes118¢19.5¢$0.23+$0.02−$2.33
Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Yes31¢0.4¢$0.01−$0.01+$0.06
Will Ernest Harden Jr. – “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a drama series?No5380.6¢0¢$0−$3.02−$0.15
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta BravesNo21447¢0¢$0−$101−$0.25
Will Michael J. Fox – “Shrinking” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a comedy series?Yes9943.6¢0¢$0−$43−$1.21
Outstanding lead actress in a limited or anthology series or movie?Yes1341.2¢0¢$0−$5.31+$1.56
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?No1211¢0¢$0−$1.36+$11

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill Ella Langley win Best New Artist at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?51.6¢161$8355%54
BUY NoWill Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?14¢103$1455%54
BUY NoWill Nathan MacKinnon record 100+ points?7¢76$5.3255%54
BUY NoWill Connor McDavid record 100+ points?7¢76$5.3155%54
SELL YesWill Trump pardon Keonne Rodriguez before 2027?10¢14$1.4055%54
SELL YesWill Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?28¢10$2.8055%54
SELL YesWill the Florida Panthers win the 2026-27 NHL Presidents' Trophy?10¢51$5.1155%54
SELL YesWill Hillary Clinton be arrested before 2027?2.5¢206$5.2555%54
SELL YesWill Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?3.5¢31$1.0755%54
SELL YesWill Donald Trump Jr. announce a presidential run before 2027?1.5¢21$0.3255%54
BUY NoWill the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?9¢156$1455%54
BUY YesWill Roma win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?17.4¢157$2755%54
BUY YesWill the Florida Panthers win the 2026-27 NHL Presidents' Trophy?7¢108$7.5655%54
BUY NoWill Leon Draisaitl win the 2026-27 Ted Lindsay Award?93¢82$7655%54
SELL YesWill the San Jose Sharks be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?3.4¢416$1455%54
SELL NoWill Montreal Canadiens be the 2027 NHL Eastern Conference Champion?89.9¢64$5855%54
BUY NoWill Montreal Canadiens be the 2027 NHL Eastern Conference Champion?90.8¢65$5955%54
BUY NoWill Connor McDavid win the 2026-27 Hart Memorial Trophy?74.6¢71$5355%54
BUY NoWill Cole Caufield win the 2026-27 Ted Lindsay Award?82¢67$5555%54
SELL YesWill the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?41.9¢531$22355%54