PnL all-time+$193kvol $13.6M
PnL 30d+$71.8kgains $66.3k · losses $398
PnL 7d+$42win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate61.0%adj 59.8% · 30d 50.0%
Open value$1,371cash n/a
Positions12 / 166open / all-time
Max drawdown−60.9%of equity peak
Account age2.2ylast trade 38d ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$195kbelow peak −$81.4kOct 8
SharpScore inputs
52/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale76
Adjusted win rateraw 61.0% · shrunk toward 50%49
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable74
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity39
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will Biden finish his term? · Yesclosed+$202kUS x Iran ceasefire by April 30? · Yesclosed+$86.2kUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · Yesclosed+$72.2kWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Noclosed+$66.3kFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? · Yesclosed+$64.9k
Worst markets
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? · Yesclosed−$194kWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? · Yesclosed−$98.9kNo change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? · Yesclosed−$51.5kUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31? · Yesclosed−$50.7kFavorite to win on Polymarket on Friday? · Kamalaclosed−$31.9k
Open positions · 12
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTA 6 launch postponed again? | No | 1,403 | 65¢ | 96.2¢ | $1,349 | +$437 | $0 | |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 157 | 68.8¢ | 14¢ | $22 | −$86 | $0 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 197k | 14.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$28.2k | $0 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 187k | 2.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$4,994 | $0 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | Yes | 80.3k | 2.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,919 | +$4.75 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Yes | 50.9k | 58.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$29.8k | $0 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | 40.8k | 31.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$12.7k | $0 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 36.0k | 39.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$14.4k | $0 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Yes | 30.0k | 21.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$6,319 | $0 | |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | No | 22.0k | 24¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5,280 | $0 | |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | Yes | 11.2k | 23.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,627 | $0 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 9,584 | 56.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5,414 | $0 |
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