PnL all-time−$23.0kvol $9.68M
PnL 30d+$1,405gains $469 · losses $0
PnL 7d−$449win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate56.0%adj 55.5% · 30d 100.0%
Open value$37.3kcash n/a
Positions8 / 202open / all-time
Max drawdown−65.5%of equity peak
Account age2.7ylast trade 2mo ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL−$4,888below peak −$636Oct 8
SharpScore inputs
27/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 56.0% · shrunk toward 50%39
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable77
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity35
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104 · Yesclosed+$71.9kWill either Kamala or Trump win every swing state? · Yesclosed+$47.7k2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House · Yesclosed+$33.6kFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting? · Yesclosed+$25.4kTrump wins every swing state? · Yesclosed+$18.2k
Worst markets
Open positions · 8
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 37.3k | 47.7¢ | 95.6¢ | $35.7k | +$17.8k | $0 | |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | No | 1,500 | 83¢ | 99.3¢ | $1,489 | +$244 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? | No | 153 | 53.8¢ | 97.6¢ | $149 | +$67 | $0 | |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026? | Yes | 95 | 54.4¢ | 1¢ | $0.95 | −$51 | $0 | |
| Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? | No | 200 | 55¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$110 | $0 | |
| US recession in 2025? | Yes | 117 | 58¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$68 | $0 | |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | Argentina | 98 | 42¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$41 | −$1.20 | |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 32 | 45¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$14 | $0 |
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