sharpside
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Traders/Unranked

thebetter1234

0xf50…8852
WR 60+1y+PoliticsOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$6,359vol $524k
PnL 30d+$889gains $85 · losses $0
PnL 7d−$322win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate67.0%adj 64.1% · 30d 100.0%
Open value$41.6kcash n/a
Positions23 / 120open / all-time
Max drawdown−76.2%of equity peak
Account age1.7ylast trade 20d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$7,155below peak −$11.5kOct 12

SharpScore inputs

48/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale54
Adjusted win rateraw 67.0% · shrunk toward 50%60
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable69
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d31
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity24

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? · Yesclosed+$7,114Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? · Yesclosed+$6,220Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025? · Noclosed+$2,408Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? · Noclosed+$2,175Will JD Vance say "Million", "Billion", and/or "Trillion" 5+ times during Bitcoin 2025 appearance on May 28? · Yesclosed+$1,411

Worst markets

Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025? · Yesclosed−$4,859Will the EU impose new tariffs on US goods in 2025? · Noclosed−$4,046Will Eric Adams drop out? · Noclosed−$4,045Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? · Noclosed−$3,235Trump negative approval before April? · Noclosed−$1,318

Open positions · 23

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?Anthropic6,72894¢95.5¢$6,425+$98$0
US recession by end of 2026?No6,64090.3¢92.5¢$6,142+$146$0
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?No4,29693.2¢96.1¢$4,127+$121$0
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?No3,96090.9¢92.5¢$3,661+$60$0
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No3,50097.5¢98.5¢$3,446+$33$0
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes4,00080¢74.5¢$2,980−$220$0
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?No2,77495.5¢96.9¢$2,686+$38$0
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December?No2,64197.4¢98.4¢$2,599+$26$0
Will the U.S. national debt hit $42 trillion before 2027?No2,08090.1¢96.1¢$1,999+$125$0
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0% or lower before 2027?No1,86797.9¢97.8¢$1,826−$1.73$0
OpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31?Google1,36072.3¢78.5¢$1,068+$84$0
Will the US federal government take a stake in Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.?No97892.6¢96.1¢$940+$34$0
Will the US federal government take a stake in TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC or Bytedance?No84689.5¢95.5¢$808+$51$0
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027?No73197.9¢98.5¢$720+$4.45$0
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?No49693.4¢96.5¢$479+$15$0
Will Frontier Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?No44982.7¢93¢$417+$46$0
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?No41198.3¢98.2¢$404−$0.33$0
OpenAI vs Meta — higher valuation on December 31?Meta39280¢93¢$365+$51$0
Anduril vs Lockheed Martin - higher valuation on December 31?Lockheed Martin28260¢72.5¢$204+$35$0
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027?No19997.9¢97.6¢$195−$0.66$0
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.0% or lower before 2027?No11498¢97.7¢$112−$0.39$0
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?No2090¢90¢$18$0$0
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes4,50015.7¢0¢$0−$708−$18

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?98.3¢411$40467%48
BUY AnthropicWill Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?94.3¢1,604$1,51267%48
BUY AnthropicWill Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?94¢4,924$4,62767%48
BUY NoWill Frontier Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?82¢100$8267%48
BUY NoWill Frontier Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?82.9¢349$28967%48
BUY NoWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in September?98.7¢85$8467%48
BUY YesWill summer 2026 be France's hottest summer on record?98.2¢247$24367%48
BUY No9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?95.5¢2,774$2,64867%48
BUY NoHantavirus pandemic in 2026?97.5¢3,500$3,41367%48
BUY NoWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.0% or lower before 2027?98¢114$11267%48
BUY NoWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027?97.9¢199$19567%48
BUY NoWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027?97.9¢731$71667%48
BUY NoWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 0% or lower before 2027?98¢3$3.2367%48
BUY NoWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 0% or lower before 2027?98¢435$42667%48
BUY NoWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 0% or lower before 2027?97.9¢1,429$1,39867%48
BUY NoUS recession by end of 2026?91¢2,040$1,85667%48
BUY NoWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December?97.4¢2,641$2,57267%48
BUY NoFed emergency rate cut before 2027?92.8¢131$12267%48
BUY NoFed emergency rate cut before 2027?93.5¢308$28867%48
BUY NoWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?93.9¢672$63167%48