sharpside
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Traders/Rank #3,829

0xf5e…471a

0xf5e…471a
SharpPnL 10k+WR 80+WR 70+WR 60+PoliticsCulture
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$10.4kvol $663k
PnL 30d+$3,407gains $5,915 · losses $634
PnL 7d+$2,350win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate97.8%adj 94.9% · 30d 97.7%
Open value$3,413cash n/a
Positions399 / 713open / all-time
Max drawdown−10.4%of equity peak
Account age10molast trade 9h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$10.7kbelow peak −$52Oct 13

SharpScore inputs

83/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale57
Adjusted win rateraw 97.8% · shrunk toward 50%100
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable95
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity90

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 30, 2026?No1,76014.4¢18.5¢$326+$72$0
Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?No1,53722.8¢15.5¢$238−$112$0
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?Yes6,4390.3¢3.2¢$203+$184$0
Will Nuevas Ideas (NI) gain the most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?No84319.4¢23.5¢$198+$35$0
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?Yes38636.2¢50.5¢$195+$55$0
Trump meets with Putin by November 30?No75821.4¢24.5¢$186+$23$0
Will United Serbia win the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election by 10% or more?Yes70325.4¢25¢$176−$2.97$0
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 15, 2026?No28644.7¢59.5¢$170+$42+$3.90
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?Yes48240.4¢32¢$154−$41$0
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster?Yes23148.3¢63.5¢$146+$35+$57
Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?Yes64025.8¢17.9¢$115−$51$0
Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Turkey by December 31, 2027?Yes53615¢21¢$112+$32$0
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?No32333.2¢32.5¢$105−$2.27$0
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?Yes20111.7¢52¢$105+$81+$0.23
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?No32231¢23¢$74−$26$0
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Pará?Yes34211.1¢19.5¢$67+$29$0
Will BRICS add a new member in 2026?No6522.7¢87.5¢$56+$42+$25
Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?No6959.8¢8¢$56−$13$0
Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 58-62%?Yes4263¢12.9¢$55+$42$0
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Pará?No28111.1¢19.5¢$55+$24$0
Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?No3439¢13.5¢$46+$15$0
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?No22517¢20.5¢$46+$7.87+$13
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?No3087¢14.6¢$45+$23$0
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?Yes1,22021.7¢3.7¢$45−$220$0
Will Labor win the most seats in the next Victorian Legislative Council election?Yes14423.4¢30.5¢$44+$10$0
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?Yes2901.1¢14.8¢$43+$40$0
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?Yes4798.4¢8.8¢$42+$1.96+$7.05
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?Yes77626.9¢5¢$39−$170+$4.27
X banned in any European country by December 31?Yes26719.8¢14¢$37−$16$0
Will One Nation win the third-most seats in the next New South Wales state election?Yes9527.6¢38¢$36+$9.85$0
Will Ukraine win Junior Eurovision 2026?Yes1367.9¢21.5¢$29+$19+$122
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026?Yes29816.2¢9.5¢$28−$20+$8.94
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?Yes2881¢8.5¢$24+$22$0
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?Yes3128¢6.5¢$20−$4.68$0
Will the Parti Québécois win by between 10 and 19 seats?Yes2037.1¢61.3¢$12+$4.83$0
Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?Yes22722¢5¢$11−$39$0
Will Pam Alexis win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?Yes20824¢5.4¢$11−$39$0
Will Celina Leão win the 2026 Federal District gubernatorial election?No7391.2¢1.3¢$9.61+$0.75$0
Will Cyprus win Junior Eurovision 2026?Yes660.6¢13.2¢$8.77+$8.39$0
Will SDA win the most seats in the 2026 Bosnian general election?No2044.8¢3.3¢$6.72−$3.01$0
Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial second round by at least 15%?Yes3110¢19.5¢$6.04+$2.94$0
Will Professora Dorinha win the 2026 Tocantins gubernatorial second round by at least 7%?Yes4013¢14¢$5.60+$0.40$0
Will Mailza Assis win the 2026 Acre gubernatorial second round by at least 20%?Yes1212¢41.5¢$5.10+$3.63$0
Will Croatia win Junior Eurovision 2026?No563.5¢98.5¢$5.10+$1.81$0
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?No729¢53.5¢$3.77+$1.73$0
Will United Torah Judaism win 8% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?Yes893.2¢3.7¢$3.25+$0.38$0
Will Michelle Bachelet be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?No326¢98.7¢$3.20+$2.36$0
Will North Macedonia win Junior Eurovision 2026?Yes400.8¢2.6¢$1.02+$0.69$0
Will Édouard Philippe advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?No128¢50.5¢$0.70+$0.31$0
Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine in 2026?Yes1011¢6.4¢$0.64−$0.46$0
Will National Party be part of the next Government of New Zealand?No121¢46¢$0.58+$0.32$0
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster?No136¢36.5¢$0.53+$0.01$0
Will Abdelilah Benkirane be the next Prime Minister of Morocco?Yes1903¢0.3¢$0.47−$5.22$0
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?Yes32¢10.5¢$0.32+$0.26$0
Will Netherlands win Junior Eurovision 2026?Yes71¢3.3¢$0.23+$0.16$0
Will Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri be the next Prime Minister of Morocco?No415.6¢5.7¢$0.21−$0.37+$25
Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?No650.5¢0.3¢$0.16−$0.17$0
Will Aziz Akhannouch be the next Prime Minister of Morocco?Yes371.3¢0.2¢$0.05−$0.42$0
Will Régis Gaudreault win the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election?Yes10.6k0.2¢0¢$0−$16+$1.74
Will Pheu Thai Party (PT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?Yes10.4k1.2¢0¢$0−$129+$443
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 15%?Yes10.2k0.1¢0¢$0−$10−$0.01
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?No10.1k2.2¢0¢$0−$221+$30
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 10%?Yes9,8610.2¢0¢$0−$21+$2.87
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?No9,4640.5¢0¢$0−$49+$20
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?Yes7,5420.5¢0¢$0−$38+$7.48
Will the Centrist Reform Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?Yes6,8730.8¢0¢$0−$52$0
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?Yes6,7540.4¢0¢$0−$26$0
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?No5,8791.2¢0¢$0−$68$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Yes5,6904.1¢0¢$0−$233+$442
Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30?No5,5351.1¢0¢$0−$60$0
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?No5,3460.7¢0¢$0−$39+$90
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Yes5,24814.2¢0¢$0−$743+$344
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%?Yes5,2320.2¢0¢$0−$13$0
Will Grüne win less than 3% of all valid second votes?Yes4,7730.1¢0¢$0−$4.77+$15
Will Artemis II launch by April 30?No4,7465.7¢0¢$0−$271+$0.69
Will Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen win UMK 2026?No4,5744¢0¢$0−$183+$0.73
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?Yes4,5394.8¢0¢$0−$216−$3.25
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?Yes4,3382.3¢0¢$0−$101−$3.48
Will Doly Begum win the by-election for the seat of Scarborough Southwest in the House of Commons of Canada?No4,1990.2¢0¢$0−$8.19$0
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?Yes4,0155.8¢0¢$0−$232−$3.57
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by 15–20%?Yes3,9740.7¢0¢$0−$27+$493
Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?No3,7622.7¢0¢$0−$100$0
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by 20%+?Yes3,4230.5¢0¢$0−$17$0
Will Social Democrats win the second most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?Yes3,3970.2¢0¢$0−$7.87$0
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?No3,3330.3¢0¢$0−$10.00$0
Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes3,3188.5¢0¢$0−$281−$0.52
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?No3,2792.6¢0¢$0−$85−$1.34
Will Venstre win the second most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?Yes3,1591.7¢0¢$0−$52$0
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?No3,15015¢0¢$0−$471$0
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?Yes3,0937¢0¢$0−$216−$0.83
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?Yes3,0382¢0¢$0−$60$0
Will Danielle Martin win the by-election for the seat of University—Rosedale in the House of Commons of Canada?No3,0100.1¢0¢$0−$3.65$0
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?Yes2,9564.2¢0¢$0−$124+$421
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?No2,8010.6¢0¢$0−$17+$20
Will Federação Brasil da Esperança (FE Brasil) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?Yes2,7580.2¢0¢$0−$6.10+$12
Will the South Australian Labor Party win the most seats in the next South Australian parliamentary election?No2,7570.8¢0¢$0−$21$0
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes2,7543.5¢0¢$0−$96−$0.44
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?No2,61514.8¢0¢$0−$386−$6.50
Will Croatia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?Yes2,5970.5¢0¢$0−$13+$0.09
Will Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) win the 2026 Aragon Regional Election?Yes2,5550.3¢0¢$0−$8.77+$5.49

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill One Nation win the third-most seats in the next New South Wales state election?29¢61$1898%83Sharp
BUY YesWill Labor win the most seats in the next Victorian Legislative Council election?22¢40$8.8098%83Sharp
SELL YesWill Liberal–National hold the most seats in the New South Wales Legislative Council after the next New South Wales state election?25¢7$1.6798%83Sharp
BUY YesWill the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster?48.3¢231$11198%83Sharp
BUY NoWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 30, 2026?14.5¢660$9698%83Sharp
BUY YesZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?6¢88$5.2898%83Sharp
BUY YesZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?6¢1,129$6898%83Sharp
BUY YesZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?6¢817$4998%83Sharp
BUY YesZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?6¢138$8.2898%83Sharp
BUY YesZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?6¢679$4198%83Sharp
SELL YesWill the chopsticks catch the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?30¢167$5098%83Sharp
SELL NoWill the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 achieve a successful splashdown?49.6¢116$5898%83Sharp
SELL NoWill the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 achieve a successful splashdown?63¢39$2598%83Sharp
SELL YesWill Zack Polanski finish third in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?0.8¢187$1.4998%83Sharp
SELL NoWill the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 achieve a successful splashdown?58¢76$4498%83Sharp
SELL NoWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 15, 2026?50¢119$5998%83Sharp
BUY NoWill Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?17¢80$1498%83Sharp
BUY NoWill the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 achieve a successful splashdown?27.5¢231$6498%83Sharp
BUY NoWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 15, 2026?44.7¢405$18198%83Sharp
BUY NoWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 30, 2026?10¢25$2.4998%83Sharp