sharpside
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Traders/Rank #552

ScarletRot

0xf74…ac84
PnL 100k+PnL 50k+PnL 10k+WR 70+WR 60+1y+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$371kvol $20.9M
PnL 30d+$3,470gains $0 · losses $0
PnL 7d+$289win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate75.1%adj 72.7% · 30d 0.0%
Open value$18.8kcash n/a
Positions20 / 205open / all-time
Max drawdown−74.4%of equity peak
Account age1.6ylast trade 7mo ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$327kbelow peak −$1,156Oct 8

SharpScore inputs

54/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale80
Adjusted win rateraw 75.1% · shrunk toward 50%82
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable77
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity26

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 20

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes28.9k29¢63.5¢$18.4k+$9,974$0
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No44093¢99¢$435+$26$0
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No529¢64.5¢$3.51+$1.93$0
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?Yes22.3k13.1¢0¢$0−$2,920+$2,143
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?Yes20.4k31¢0¢$0−$6,319$0
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?Yes10.0k6¢0¢$0−$600$0
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?Yes6,42026¢0¢$0−$1,666$0
Will Eric Adams drop out first?No5,87531¢0¢$0−$1,821$0
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025?Yes5,72825.8¢0¢$0−$1,478$0
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?Yes4,30624¢0¢$0−$1,033$0
Will Hades II win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?Yes3,7112.3¢0¢$0−$85$0
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025?Yes3,37315.2¢0¢$0−$511$0
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30?Yes2,6131.8¢0¢$0−$47−$882
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?No2,46267.6¢0¢$0−$1,664$0
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025?Yes1,65932.9¢0¢$0−$545$0
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in July?Yes1,58013¢0¢$0−$205+$9.65
Trump x Xi Jinping talk before August?Yes9985¢0¢$0−$50$0
Will Stephen Miran be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025?Yes92572.5¢0¢$0−$671−$660
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025?Yes70914.7¢0¢$0−$104$0
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July?Yes27819¢0¢$0−$53$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?97.2¢5,196$5,05075%54
SELL NoWill Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?90¢15.2k$13.7k75%54Whale
BUY NoWill Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?98.5¢2,900$2,85775%54
BUY NoWill Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?98.4¢17.1k$16.8k75%54Whale
BUY YesFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?97.5¢25.8k$25.2k75%54Whale
BUY NoWill Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?94¢54.4k$51.1k75%54Whale
BUY YesFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?92¢52.1k$47.9k75%54Whale
BUY YesWill Hades II win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?2.9¢2,030$6075%54
BUY YesWill Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?87.9¢5,291$4,65375%54
BUY NoTrump out as President in 2025?97.5¢30.9k$30.1k75%54Whale
BUY NoWill China invade Taiwan in 2025?97.6¢26.3k$25.7k75%54Whale
BUY NoJerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?96.4¢7,587$7,31375%54
SELL NoXi Jinping out in 2025?97¢81.1k$78.7k75%54Whale
BUY YesFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?98.7¢20.0k$19.7k75%54Whale
BUY YesFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?98¢20.0k$19.6k75%54Whale
SELL NoXi Jinping out in 2025?96.3¢15.7k$15.2k75%54Whale
BUY YesFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?97.8¢41.5k$40.6k75%54Whale
BUY YesFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?97.7¢32.2k$31.5k75%54Whale
BUY YesWill Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?87.8¢14.5k$12.7k75%54Whale
BUY YesWill Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025?14.5¢1,389$20175%54