sharpside
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Traders/Rank #3,261

Single-Challenge

0xf80…2af8
WR 60+1y+PoliticsOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$5,679vol $180k
PnL 30d+$1,935gains $2,312 · losses $160
PnL 7d−$471win rate 7d 71.4%
Win rate62.9%adj 61.1% · 30d 78.6%
Open value$43.3kcash n/a
Positions39 / 163open / all-time
Max drawdown−14.3%of equity peak
Account age2.3ylast trade 16h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$7,995below peak −$677Oct 10

SharpScore inputs

67/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale54
Adjusted win rateraw 62.9% · shrunk toward 50%53
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable74
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d98
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity86

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026? · Yesclosed+$1,126Will a Republican win the popular vote and the Presidency? · Yesclosed+$851Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027? · Yesclosed+$803What will be the next Fed rate change? · Hikeclosed+$746Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? · Yesclosed+$730

Worst markets

Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? · Noopen−$1,270Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? · Noclosed−$615Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August? · Yesclosed−$498US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? · Yesclosed−$444Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 3? · Downclosed−$300

Open positions · 39

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
US recession by end of 2026?No7,00093.4¢93.5¢$6,545+$5.00$0
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?No3,50080¢95.1¢$3,328+$529$0
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo3,35087.3¢91.5¢$3,065+$142$0
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No3,40881.8¢84.6¢$2,882+$94$0
Will GameStop acquire eBay?No3,00092.3¢94.5¢$2,835+$65$0
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?No3,01188.8¢90.5¢$2,725+$50$0
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes2,50088¢90.5¢$2,262+$62$0
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Yes5,00044¢43.5¢$2,175−$25$0
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes2,50050¢62.5¢$1,563+$313$0
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes2,50050¢62.5¢$1,563+$313$0
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes2,50049¢61.5¢$1,538+$313$0
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No1,50088¢90.5¢$1,357+$37$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No1,50043¢82.5¢$1,238+$593$0
Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by December 31?No1,24090.1¢92¢$1,141+$23−$2.71
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?No1,08298.9¢98.1¢$1,061−$9.19$0
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?No1,76881.3¢57.5¢$1,017−$420−$850
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes2,03761¢48.9¢$997−$246$0
Will Republicans lose House majority before the midterms?No88594.8¢98.2¢$868+$30$0
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?No73684.9¢96.5¢$710+$86$0
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?Yes93072.9¢69.5¢$646−$32$0
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes1,00070¢58.5¢$585−$115$0
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?No1,00069¢58.5¢$585−$105$0
Will Missouri use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?No36586¢98.3¢$359+$45$0
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?No38687¢90.5¢$349+$14$0
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No50049¢62.5¢$313+$68$0
OPEC dissolves in 2026?No28195¢97.7¢$275+$7.60$0
Nothing Ever Happens: ObamaNothing19294¢93.7¢$180−$0.61$0
Will over 50 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?No19065¢93.5¢$177+$54$0
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?No15289.1¢92¢$139+$4.31$0
Will Trump's first pick win the 2028 US presidential election?No18465.5¢69.5¢$128+$7.45$0
Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling?No13390¢90¢$119$0$0
Will Republicans win the Texas Governor election and Democrats win the Texas Senate election?Yes30638.5¢39¢$119+$1.66$0
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?No9991.7¢98.8¢$98+$7.01$0
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?Yes2437.5¢40.1¢$97+$79$0
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?No9350¢69.5¢$65+$18$0
Will the next elected US president be a woman?No8060.4¢79.5¢$64+$15$0
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?No6984.7¢86.8¢$60+$1.45$0
Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?Up2787.6¢89.5¢$24+$0.51$0
Will the U.S. national debt hit $42 trillion before 2027?No2090¢95.9¢$19+$1.17$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoUS recession by end of 2026?94¢5,000$4,70063%67
BUY YesWill the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?44¢5,000$2,20063%67
BUY YesWill Trump be impeached before his term ends?76¢10$7.6063%67
BUY YesWill Trump be impeached before his term ends?74¢414$30663%67
BUY NoWill the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?84.7¢69$5963%67
BUY NoWill the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?87¢386$33663%67
SELL YesWill Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?8¢1,300$10463%67
SELL YesWill Republicans sweep the Texas Senate and Governor elections?29¢206$6063%67
SELL YesWill the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?71.9¢11$8.2563%67
SELL NoWill FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?85¢13$1163%67
SELL NoWill US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?97.9¢1$0.5563%67
SELL NoWill US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?99.6¢1$0.8063%67
BUY YesWill Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?61.1¢266$16263%67
BUY YesWill Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?49¢2,270$1,11263%67
BUY NoWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?98.9¢1,077$1,06563%67
BUY NoWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?98.9¢5$4.9563%67
BUY Ohio StateOhio State vs. Texas54¢185$10063%67
SELL NoWill Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?68¢513$34963%67
BUY NoWill Missouri use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?84¢50$4263%67
BUY NoWill the next elected US president be a woman?60.4¢80$4863%67