sharpside
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Traders/Rank #16,006

OsvaldoMarianao27

0xf93…43e1
WR 70+WR 60+SportPoliticsCrypto
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$1,973vol $132k
PnL 30d−$2,630gains $3,048 · losses $2,573
PnL 7d−$2,056win rate 7d 86.0%
Win rate76.4%adj 75.4% · 30d 88.3%
Open value$918cash n/a
Positions344 / 1,152open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age2molast trade 12h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$2,503below peak −$3,496Oct 13

SharpScore inputs

44/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 76.4% · shrunk toward 50%89
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d98
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?Yes1,04170¢72.5¢$755+$26−$239
Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-09-05?No8162¢72¢$58+$8.06$0
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?Yes2507.7¢6.8¢$17−$2.25$0
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-10-10?Yes5537¢24.5¢$14−$6.92$0
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in October 2026?Yes1608.4¢6.7¢$11−$2.68$0
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-10-10?No1466¢57¢$8.05−$1.27$0
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?Yes1545¢4.4¢$6.78−$0.92$0
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?Yes2,7003.7¢0.2¢$5.40−$95$0
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over977¢53¢$4.97−$2.25$0
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?No667¢71.5¢$4.29+$0.27$0
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?Yes1184.2¢3.4¢$3.94−$1.06$0
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from October 13 to October 20, 2026?Yes4025¢9¢$3.60−$6.40$0
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in October 2026?Yes8411.9¢3.9¢$3.27−$6.73$0
No one announced as next James Bond?No479.7¢66.3¢$2.96−$0.60$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Yes681¢44.3¢$2.65−$2.21$0
Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026?Yes502¢4.5¢$2.25+$1.25$0
Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?No451¢47.5¢$1.92−$0.14$0
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?Yes3,7702.6¢0.1¢$1.89−$98$0
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026?Yes1610.9¢10.5¢$1.68−$0.06+$12
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?Yes3,0661.7¢0.1¢$1.53−$50$0
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?Yes502.2¢2.3¢$1.15+$0.05$0
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?Yes452.4¢2.6¢$1.15+$0.07$0
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in October 2026?Yes1009¢1.1¢$1.05−$7.95$0
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?Yes502.1¢1.3¢$0.63−$0.42$0
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets in October 2026?Yes1,1140.4¢0.1¢$0.56−$4.44$0
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in October 2026?Yes1,0000.1¢0.1¢$0.50−$0.50$0
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?Yes1450.7¢0.3¢$0.43−$0.58$0
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Elon Musk by October 31, 2026?Yes147¢3¢$0.43−$0.57$0
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?Yes1700.6¢0.3¢$0.42−$0.59$0
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in October 2026?Yes2310¢1.8¢$0.39−$1.86$0
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?Yes1001.4¢0.4¢$0.35−$1.05$0
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?Yes6001.6¢0.1¢$0.30−$9.60$0
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in October 2026?Yes2322¢1¢$0.23−$4.77$0
Will Elon Musk post 740-759 tweets in October 2026?Yes1152.6¢0.2¢$0.17−$2.83$0
Will Elon Musk post 700-719 tweets in October 2026?Yes1003¢0.2¢$0.15−$2.85$0
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets in October 2026?Yes2791.8¢0.1¢$0.14−$4.86$0
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets in October 2026?Yes2611.9¢0.1¢$0.13−$4.87$0
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026?Yes2025¢0.6¢$0.12−$4.88$0
Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in October 2026?Yes205¢0.5¢$0.11−$0.89$0
Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets in October 2026?Yes791.3¢0.1¢$0.04−$0.96$0
Will Elon Musk post 760-779 tweets in October 2026?Yes54.2¢0.3¢$0.01−$0.20$0
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?Yes7,6209.6¢0¢$0−$734−$39
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets in October 2026?Yes2,3290.4¢0¢$0−$10.00−$0.50
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets in October 2026?Yes1,9120.1¢0¢$0−$2.00−$0.10
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets in October 2026?Yes1,8170.2¢0¢$0−$3.00−$0.15
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets in October 2026?Yes1,7680.2¢0¢$0−$3.00−$0.15
Will White House post 200+ posts from September 15 to September 22, 2026?No1,72526.2¢0¢$0−$452−$13
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets in October 2026?Yes1,6120.2¢0¢$0−$3.00−$0.15
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets in October 2026?Yes1,4870.3¢0¢$0−$5.00−$0.25
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?Yes1,0510.5¢0¢$0−$5.05−$0.25
Will Bolton Wanderers FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw?Yes1,0471¢0¢$0−$10−$0.57
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets in October 2026?Yes1,0000.1¢0¢$0−$1.00−$0.05
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets in October 2026?Yes1,0000.1¢0¢$0−$1.00−$0.05
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets in October 2026?Yes1,0000.1¢0¢$0−$1.00−$0.05
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets in October 2026?Yes1,0000.1¢0¢$0−$1.00−$0.05
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets in October 2026?Yes1,0000.1¢0¢$0−$1.00−$0.05
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets in October 2026?Yes1,0000.1¢0¢$0−$1.00−$0.05
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets in October 2026?Yes1,0000.1¢0¢$0−$1.00−$0.05
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?Yes1,0000.1¢0¢$0−$1.00$0
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?Yes8760.5¢0¢$0−$4.12−$0.15
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ETDown8431.8¢0¢$0−$15+$0.37
Will White House post 100-119 posts from September 4 to September 11, 2026?Yes6200.9¢0¢$0−$5.58−$0.01
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?Yes7,2601¢0¢$0−$71−$3.50
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from September 18 to September 25, 2026?Yes5507.2¢0¢$0−$40−$0.16
Will White House post 180-199 posts from September 15 to September 22, 2026?Yes53124.5¢0¢$0−$130−$3.49
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?Yes5300.9¢0¢$0−$5.00−$0.25
Spread: Kawkab AC (-1.5)Kawkab AC4481¢0¢$0−$4.48−$0.24
Liverpool FC leading at halftime?Yes4261¢0¢$0−$4.26−$0.23
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from September 11 to September 18, 2026?Yes39040.3¢0¢$0−$157$0
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from September 4 to September 11, 2026?Yes3561.5¢0¢$0−$5.33−$0.25
Will Elon tweet 920-959 times in September 2026?Yes3331.5¢0¢$0−$5.00−$0.20
Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026?Yes2674¢0¢$0−$11−$0.01
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?Yes2200.5¢0¢$0−$1.00−$0.05
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from September 4 to September 11, 2026?Yes2143.3¢0¢$0−$6.95−$0.24
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from September 15 to September 22, 2026?Yes19034¢0¢$0−$65−$1.11
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ETUp1566.4¢0¢$0−$10+$2.85
Chicago Fire FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo14335¢0¢$0−$50−$1.23
Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-09-13?Yes13810¢0¢$0−$14−$0.69
Will Amed Sportif vs. Trabzonspor end in a draw?Yes1351.8¢0¢$0−$2.47−$0.13
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from September 4 to September 11, 2026?Yes1355.2¢0¢$0−$6.98−$0.28
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ETDown1250.8¢0¢$0−$1.00−$0.39
Will Türkiye win on 2026-10-05?Yes12415¢0¢$0−$19−$0.88
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ETUp1222¢0¢$0−$2.43+$3.37
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ETDown1200¢0¢$0$0$0
Exact Score: COD Meknès 0 - 1 Kawkab AC?No1181¢0¢$0−$1.18−$0.06
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ETDown1188.5¢0¢$0−$10+$0.76
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on September 11?Yes11651.8¢0¢$0−$60−$1.76
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 9?Yes1140¢0¢$0$0$0
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from September 29 to October 6, 2026?Yes1120.9¢0¢$0−$1.01$0
Will Brusque FC SC win on 2026-10-03?Yes1115.2¢0¢$0−$5.81−$0.30
Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from September 11 to September 18, 2026?Yes1102¢0¢$0−$2.20$0
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from September 11 to September 18, 2026?No10972.1¢0¢$0−$79−$0.55
DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over10620¢0¢$0−$21−$0.95
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 11:35AM-11:40AM ETDown1022¢0¢$0−$2.00−$0.11
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 12?Yes1011¢0¢$0−$1.00−$0.05
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?Yes10010¢0¢$0−$10+$4.23
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from September 29 to October 6, 2026?Yes1001¢0¢$0−$1.00−$0.02
Will Bay FC win on 2026-09-04?Yes9726¢0¢$0−$25−$1.06
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ETUp9410.6¢0¢$0−$10.00−$0.26
Will Uganda win on 2026-09-29?No9320¢0¢$0−$19−$0.84

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?3.2¢277$9.0076%44
SELL YesWill Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?4.5¢73$3.2376%44
BUY YesWill Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?7.4¢6$0.4276%44
BUY YesWill Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?70.9¢364$25876%44
BUY YesWill Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?69.3¢188$13076%44
SELL YesWill Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?19.1¢68$1376%44
BUY YesWill Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?69.6¢489$34176%44
SELL YesWill Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?42.9¢126$5476%44
SELL YesWill Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?61.7¢480$29676%44
BUY YesWill Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?77.5¢10$7.7576%44
BUY YesWill Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?12.7¢955$12176%44
BUY OverLevante UD vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 2.595¢8$7.6176%44
BUY OverLevante UD vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 1.579¢9$7.4076%44
BUY OverCD Tenerife vs. Girona FC: O/U 3.548¢13$6.2476%44
BUY YesWill CD Tenerife win on 2026-10-12?30¢20$6.1276%44
SELL YesWill Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?16.6¢869$14476%44
BUY YesWill Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?8.3¢169$1476%44
SELL YesWill Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?17.4¢81$1476%44
BUY YesWill Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?12.2¢1,338$16476%44
SELL YesWill Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?18.9¢950$18076%44