sharpside
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Traders/Rank #13,684

jwd103103

0xfa7…f37e
1y+SportOtherPoliticsCulture
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$325vol $377k
PnL 30d+$246gains $979 · losses $719
PnL 7d−$77win rate 7d 38.7%
Win rate38.0%adj 38.4% · 30d 44.7%
Open value$6,610cash n/a
Positions144 / 1,404open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age1.5ylast trade 13m ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$1,030below peak −$2,979Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

31/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 38.0% · shrunk toward 50%0
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?Yes1,14064.7¢87.5¢$997+$260+$192
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Yes74966.5¢68.5¢$513+$15$0
Will the UK Budget include an increase to fuel duty?No52769.9¢76¢$400+$32+$0.06
Will Taylor Swift be the second most streamed artist for 2026?Yes2,00021.3¢18.5¢$370−$56−$33
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?Yes71544.9¢46.5¢$332+$12$0
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31?Yes41374.2¢76.5¢$316+$9.29−$3.83
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Yes35557.1¢75.5¢$268+$65+$28
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?Yes33763¢67.5¢$227+$15+$1.99
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes35721.7¢52.4¢$187+$109+$62
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.4T by October 31?Yes20072.1¢90.5¢$181+$37$0
Will you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love (Olivia Rodrigo) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?Yes37034.3¢44¢$163+$36$0
Will Drake be the third most streamed artist for 2026?Yes75019.8¢19¢$143−$6.07+$2.90
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?Yes17072.6¢82.5¢$140+$17$0
Will Bad Bunny rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People in the US of 2026?Yes17056.1¢64.5¢$110+$14$0
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?Yes40516.5¢26.8¢$108+$41$0
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?Yes50014.6¢21¢$105+$32$0
Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.00T and $1.10T at the end of October 2026?Yes27029.9¢38.5¢$104+$23$0
Will Erling Braut Haaland be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?Yes20041.8¢44.5¢$89+$5.31+$0.73
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?Yes13068.1¢66.5¢$87−$2.15$0
Will Dario Amodei be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Yes1,0968.3¢7.8¢$85−$5.49$0
Will the UK Budget include an increase to capital gains tax?Yes22544.1¢37¢$83−$16−$4.45
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.425T by October 31?Yes11069.8¢74.5¢$82+$5.15$0
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes11052.5¢64.6¢$71+$13+$0.17
Love Wins: 2026 EditionNo10561.1¢67¢$70+$6.20$0
Will The Art of Loving (Olivia Dean) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?Yes37323.6¢17.4¢$65−$23$0
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by October 31?No10076¢58.5¢$59−$18$0
Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.10T and $1.20T at the end of October 2026?Yes26015.9¢22.5¢$58+$17$0
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Yes22414.9¢25.5¢$57+$24$0
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?Yes6580¢74.5¢$48−$3.58$0
Will Kansas City Chiefs win the 2026 AFC West?Yes6950.8¢70¢$48+$13$0
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?Yes45011.2¢9.9¢$45−$5.80$0
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Yes5009¢8.6¢$43−$2.37$0
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?Yes11037.5¢37¢$41−$0.50$0
Will the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes15011.3¢21.9¢$33+$16$0
Will Elon Musk be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Yes5005.8¢6.5¢$33+$3.25$0
Will Erling Haaland (Man City) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Premier League season?Yes5059¢61.5¢$31+$1.25$0
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes10027¢30.5¢$31+$3.50$0
Will OpenAI's public ticker be $CGPT?Yes1036.6¢28.3¢$29+$22$0
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Yes5054.9¢58¢$29+$1.56$0
Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $900B and $1.00T at the end of October 2026?Yes13019¢19.5¢$25+$0.65$0
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH?Yes6453.6¢35.5¢$23−$12−$16
Will the Bayeux Tapestry be back in France by July 31, 2027?Yes7027.1¢32¢$22+$3.40$0
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?Yes3546.3¢59.5¢$21+$4.62$0
Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?Yes5020¢38.5¢$19+$9.25$0
Will Anthropic’s valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T at the end of October 2026?Yes503¢37.9¢$19+$17$0
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes5034¢35.5¢$18+$0.75−$0.50
Will the Republican Party hold between 210 and 214 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes1756.5¢10.2¢$18+$6.33$0
Will Jude Bellingham finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes5533.1¢32¢$18−$0.60$0
Will OpenAI's public ticker be $OPAI?Yes6016.2¢29¢$17+$7.70$0
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.05T by October 31?Yes2055¢86¢$17+$6.20$0
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.525T by October 31?No4355¢39.5¢$17−$6.65$0
Will Erling Haaland rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People in the US of 2026?Yes3038¢56¢$17+$5.40$0
Jon Ossoff Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?Yes2546¢66.5¢$17+$5.13$0
Will Ousmane Dembélé finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?No2066.5¢82.5¢$16+$3.15$0
Will Christopher Nolan win Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?Yes2550.4¢62.5¢$16+$3.02$0
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes10018¢15.4¢$15−$2.65$0
Will Republicans lose any "Safe Republican" Senate race?No2054¢71¢$14+$3.40$0
Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes13511.2¢10.4¢$14−$1.17$0
Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of November 2026?Yes3022¢45.5¢$14+$7.05$0
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?No2454.4¢53.5¢$13−$0.22$0
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.725T by October 31?No1381¢95¢$12+$1.82$0
Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet engaged in 2026?Yes11114.2¢10.5¢$12−$4.09$0
Will Miley Cyrus perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?No2513.9¢46¢$12+$8.03$0
Will the cure (Olivia Rodrigo) win Song of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?Yes3022.4¢37.8¢$11+$4.60$0
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Yes2546¢42.5¢$11−$0.88$0
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.2T by October 31?No2064¢51.5¢$10−$2.50$0
Will the Republican Party hold between 215 and 219 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes1507¢6.6¢$9.82−$0.68$0
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?No1371¢71.5¢$9.29+$0.07$0
Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.20T and $1.30T at the end of October 2026?Yes1136.1¢8.1¢$9.09+$2.20$0
Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.20T and $1.30T at the end of November 2026?Yes5016¢18¢$9.00+$1.00$0
Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?Yes2050¢44.5¢$8.90−$1.10$0
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?No3038.2¢29.5¢$8.85−$2.60$0
Will Chelsea be runner-up in the 2026-27 Premier League?Yes5317.6¢15.5¢$8.18−$1.13$0
Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.00T and $1.10T at the end of November 2026?Yes402.8¢20.3¢$8.14+$7.02$0
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes2334¢34.5¢$7.76+$0.11$0
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?Yes1050¢76.5¢$7.65+$2.65−$7.37
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes1254.5¢5.9¢$7.44+$1.86$0
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes1062¢72.5¢$7.25+$1.05$0
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes506.3¢13.6¢$6.78+$3.63$0
Bills vs. RamsBills1039¢63.5¢$6.51+$2.51$0
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yes1007¢5.5¢$5.50−$1.50$0
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No1045¢53.5¢$5.35+$0.85$0
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?Yes3053.8¢1.8¢$5.34−$6.35$0
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Yes1351¢40.5¢$5.26−$1.36$0
Will Chuck Norris rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Passings in the US of 2026?Yes1256¢43.5¢$5.22−$1.50$0
Will the Republican Party hold between 220 and 224 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes1403.2¢3.7¢$5.11+$0.66$0
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?Yes1016.4¢5¢$5.07−$1.41−$2.66
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes507.4¢10¢$4.97+$1.25$0
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?Yes2527¢19.5¢$4.88−$1.88$0
Will Taylor Swift perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?No679.8¢76.3¢$4.78−$0.22$0
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?No589¢90.5¢$4.53+$0.07$0
Will Choosin' Texas (Ella Langley) win Song of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?Yes1523.7¢30.1¢$4.51+$0.95$0
Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes1006¢4.5¢$4.50−$1.50$0
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes2001.4¢2.2¢$4.30+$1.50$0
Will Michael Olise finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?No767¢60.5¢$4.24−$0.45$0
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes1043¢41.5¢$4.15−$0.15$0
Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $2.00T and $2.25T at the end of October 2026?Yes2016.4¢20¢$4.00+$0.72$0
Will the Republican Party hold between 225 and 229 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes1751.5¢2.3¢$3.94+$1.35$0
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes764.2¢5.1¢$3.84+$0.61−$35
Will Lionel Messi be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?Yes756¢5¢$3.75−$0.75$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31?77¢30$2338%31
BUY YesWill Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31?77¢37$2838%31
SELL YesWill OpenAI’s valuation be between $900B and $1.00T at the end of October 2026?9.5¢130$1238%31
BUY NoWill the UK Budget include an increase to fuel duty?76¢10$7.6038%31
BUY NoWill the UK Budget include an increase to fuel duty?78¢18$1438%31
BUY YesWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?47¢35$1638%31
SELL YesWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?68¢149$10138%31
BUY NoWill the UK Budget include an increase to fuel duty?79¢5$3.8638%31
BUY YesWill OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.00T and $1.10T at the end of October 2026?31¢20$6.2038%31
BUY NoBank of England rate hike in 2026?1.8¢54$1.0038%31
BUY YesWill Elon Musk be TIME Person of the Year 2026?7¢18$1.2638%31
BUY YesWill Artificial Intelligence be TIME Person of the Year 2026?10.5¢30$3.1538%31
BUY YesWill Artificial Intelligence be TIME Person of the Year 2026?10.5¢55$5.7838%31
BUY YesWill Artificial Intelligence be TIME Person of the Year 2026?10.5¢20$2.1038%31
BUY YesWill Artificial Intelligence be TIME Person of the Year 2026?10.5¢31$3.2638%31
BUY YesWill Artificial Intelligence be TIME Person of the Year 2026?10.5¢50$5.2038%31
BUY YesWill Elon Musk be TIME Person of the Year 2026?5.8¢482$2838%31
SELL YesWill Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?87¢60$5238%31
BUY YesWill Artificial Intelligence be TIME Person of the Year 2026?8.5¢50$4.2538%31
BUY YesWill Artificial Intelligence be TIME Person of the Year 2026?8.1¢265$2138%31