| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 9,510 | 67.4¢ | 70¢ | $6,652 | +$246 | $0 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026? | Yes | 3,762 | 77.5¢ | 76.5¢ | $2,878 | −$39 | $0 | |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026? | No | 3,000 | 91¢ | 94.2¢ | $2,824 | +$94 | $0 | |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 9,467 | 52.1¢ | 19¢ | $1,799 | −$3,130 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | No | 2,494 | 49.5¢ | 58.5¢ | $1,459 | +$224 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 9, 2026? | No | 1,129 | 78.4¢ | 100¢ | $1,129 | +$244 | −$7.38 | |
| Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,123 | 68.3¢ | 92¢ | $1,033 | +$266 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026? | No | 1,013 | 79.6¢ | 98.1¢ | $993 | +$188 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day? | No | 1,000 | 92.9¢ | 97.2¢ | $972 | +$43 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | No | 1,224 | 73.4¢ | 73.5¢ | $900 | +$1.22 | $0 | |
| Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $30 in 2026? | No | 931 | 75.7¢ | 81.5¢ | $759 | +$54 | +$20 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | Yes | 500 | 79¢ | 80.5¢ | $402 | +$7.50 | $0 | |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 488 | 49.9¢ | 79.9¢ | $390 | +$146 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 2,510 | 26.5¢ | 15.5¢ | $389 | −$277 | $0 | |
| Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | No | 1,566 | 32¢ | 19.5¢ | $305 | −$196 | $0 | |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? | No | 397 | 40.7¢ | 66.5¢ | $264 | +$102 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? | No | 444 | 26.5¢ | 57.5¢ | $255 | +$137 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026? | No | 249 | 51¢ | 96.1¢ | $239 | +$112 | $0 | |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026? | No | 2,049 | 19.3¢ | 11¢ | $225 | −$170 | $0 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? | No | 2,270 | 25.8¢ | 9.5¢ | $216 | −$371 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026? | No | 220 | 18¢ | 88.5¢ | $195 | +$155 | $0 | |
| Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $45 in 2026? | No | 307 | 55¢ | 46.5¢ | $143 | −$26 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 403 | 21.9¢ | 26.8¢ | $108 | +$20 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 161 | 84.5¢ | 54.5¢ | $88 | −$48 | $0 | |
| Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? | Yes | 256 | 37¢ | 30.5¢ | $78 | −$17 | $0 | |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | Yes | 400 | 33¢ | 14.5¢ | $58 | −$74 | $0 | |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? | Yes | 225 | 46¢ | 25.5¢ | $57 | −$46 | +$6.99 | |
| Will Claude Fable's output price be at or above $55 in 2026? | No | 65 | 45¢ | 74¢ | $48 | +$19 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 215 | 24¢ | 11.5¢ | $25 | −$27 | $0 | |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 100 | 30¢ | 19.5¢ | $20 | −$11 | $0 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026? | No | 198 | 7¢ | 2.7¢ | $5.24 | −$8.56 | $0 | |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? | No | 6 | 54¢ | 74.5¢ | $4.44 | +$1.22 | −$5.24 | |
| Anthropic acquired before 2027? | No | 3 | 60¢ | 97.2¢ | $2.46 | +$0.94 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? | No | 1 | 67¢ | 97.9¢ | $1.10 | +$0.35 | $0 | |
| Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on December 31? | Yes | 34.4k | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$34 | $0 | |
| GPT-5.3 released by February 14, 2026? | No | 9,231 | 44.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$4,072 | +$149 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | No | 8,221 | 92¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$7,565 | −$2,246 | |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 20 2025? | Yes | 4,486 | 3.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$154 | $0 | |
| Will Mistral have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025? | Yes | 3,938 | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$13 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? | Yes | 3,354 | 13¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$437 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 3,245 | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$9.73 | $0 | |
| GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026? | No | 3,072 | 10.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$314 | $0 | |
| Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? | Yes | 3,061 | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$9.18 | $0 | |
| Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026? | Yes | 2,445 | 84.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,057 | +$0.10 | |
| Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of December 2025? | Yes | 2,280 | 6.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$142 | $0 | |
| Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025? | Yes | 1,953 | 1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$20 | $0 | |
| Will GPT-5 be released by August 5? | Yes | 1,866 | 8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$149 | $0 | |
| Will Z.ai have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025? | Yes | 1,833 | 1.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$19 | $0 | |
| OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025? | No | 1,577 | 75.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,197 | −$118 | |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025? | Yes | 1,216 | 19.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$239 | −$61 | |
| Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? | Yes | 1,191 | 50¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$596 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? | No | 1,170 | 19¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$222 | $0 | |
| Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | Yes | 1,162 | 26.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$312 | $0 | |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? | Yes | 1,080 | 2.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$25 | −$6.46 | |
| Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026? | Yes | 1,066 | 13.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$143 | $0 | |
| Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21? | Yes | 1,000 | 4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$40 | $0 | |
| Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? | No | 1,000 | 30¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$300 | $0 | |
| Will xAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? | Yes | 1,000 | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5.00 | $0 | |
| Will another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | No | 880 | 2.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$19 | +$57 | |
| Will Claude 5 be released by February 6, 2026? | Yes | 749 | 35.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$268 | $0 | |
| Will xAI have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025? | Yes | 701 | 2.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$16 | $0 | |
| Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? | No | 700 | 34¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$238 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 696 | 59.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$415 | $0 | |
| Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026? | Yes | 598 | 70¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$419 | $0 | |
| Will Yann LeCun leave Meta this year? | No | 575 | 30.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$176 | $0 | |
| Will Grok 4.20 not be released by January 31, 2026? | No | 566 | 85.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$481 | $0 | |
| Will Mistral have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Yes | 540 | 0.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.24 | $0 | |
| Fact Check: Is Tyler Robinson queer? | No | 525 | 29.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$154 | $0 | |
| Will Z.ai be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026? | Yes | 428 | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2.14 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480? | Yes | 424 | 63.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$269 | −$3.93 | |
| Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16? | Yes | 417 | 89¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$371 | −$24 | |
| OpenAI social app in 2025? | No | 413 | 57¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$235 | $0 | |
| Will Moonshot have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025? | Yes | 405 | 1.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$4.86 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025? | Yes | 404 | 38.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$155 | −$289 | |
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31? | Yes | 361 | 34¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$123 | +$179 | |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 338 | 45¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$152 | +$9.80 | |
| Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by June 30? | No | 324 | 79¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$256 | +$0.50 | |
| Will xAI have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | 282 | 16¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$45 | $0 | |
| Will xAI have the second best AI model on September 30? | Yes | 260 | 17¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$44 | $0 | |
| Will Alibaba have the second best AI model on September 30? | No | 227 | 55¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$125 | $0 | |
| Will Mistral be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026? | Yes | 198 | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.60 | $0 | |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? | No | 190 | 33.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$64 | $0 | |
| Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | 179 | 8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$14 | $0 | |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 173 | 55¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$95 | −$1.71 | |
| Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | Yes | 134 | 10¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$13 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI have the second best AI model on September 30? | Yes | 132 | 14¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$18 | $0 | |
| X Money launch in 2025? | Yes | 112 | 23¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$26 | $0 | |
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 30% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31? | No | 100 | 3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.00 | $0 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026? | No | 100 | 1.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.10 | $0 | |
| OpenAI browser in 2025? | No | 100 | 19¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$19 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $340b and $350b on August 31? | Yes | 50 | 7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.50 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $340b and $350b on August 31? | No | 42 | 71¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$30 | $0 | |
| Will Grok have a MacOS desktop app live by December 31? | Yes | 41 | 13¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5.33 | $0 | |
| Will Alibaba be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026? | Yes | 38 | 0.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.15 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13? | No | 29 | 22¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$6.27 | −$18 | |
| Will OpenAI GPT score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | No | 14 | 57¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$7.98 | $0 | |
| Will the Las Vegas Aces win the 2025 WNBA Championship? | No | 9 | 87.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$7.46 | $0 | |
