sharpside
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Traders/Rank #3,182

CastleRock

0xfb6…eb56
WR 80+WR 70+WR 60+1y+CryptoPolitics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$7,069vol $494k
PnL 30d+$642gains $485 · losses $0
PnL 7d+$4,477win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate88.5%adj 85.4% · 30d 100.0%
Open value$23.0kcash n/a
Positions10 / 241open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age1.9ylast trade 1d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$7,403below peak −$22Oct 10

SharpScore inputs

59/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale55
Adjusted win rateraw 88.5% · shrunk toward 50%100
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable79
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d96
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? · Noclosed+$1,962Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by January 31, 2025? · Noclosed+$1,272Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by February 28, 2025? · Noclosed+$998Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by January 31, 2025? · Noclosed+$904Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? · Noclosed+$553

Worst markets

Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 by February 28, 2025? · Noclosed−$3,634Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? · Noclosed−$1,328Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November? · Noclosed−$585Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? · Noclosed−$567Will XRP reach $4.0 in July? · Noclosed−$494

Open positions · 10

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No10.0k96¢95.5¢$9,550−$50−$20
Xi Jinping out before 2027?No7,50093¢97.2¢$7,286+$311−$205
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?No2,00097.9¢97.5¢$1,949−$9.00$0
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?No1,62697¢96.9¢$1,576−$1.85$0
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027?No1,04597.7¢97.5¢$1,018−$2.41$0
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes1,00095.6¢95.6¢$956−$0.50$0
Trump out as President before 2027?No50095.7¢95.9¢$479+$0.75$0
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027?No14196.6¢93.4¢$132−$4.54$0
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027?No7997.6¢96.9¢$77−$0.59$0
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027?No2897.7¢97.8¢$27+$0.02$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoXi Jinping out before 2027?97¢1,500$1,45589%59
BUY NoWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?96¢2,000$1,92089%59
BUY No9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?97.2¢111$10889%59
BUY NoWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?97.9¢2,000$1,95889%59
BUY NoWill the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027?97.9¢513$50289%59
BUY NoWill the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027?97.7¢108$10689%59
BUY NoWill the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027?97.8¢20$2089%59
BUY NoWill the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027?97.6¢79$7789%59
BUY NoWill the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027?97.5¢8$7.6089%59
BUY NoWill the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027?97.5¢154$15189%59
BUY NoWill the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027?97.4¢169$16589%59
BUY NoWill the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027?97.3¢100$9789%59
BUY NoWill the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027?96.6¢141$13689%59
BUY YesWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?95.6¢1,000$95689%59
BUY NoXi Jinping out before 2027?97¢1,000$97089%59
BUY NoWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?96¢5,000$4,80089%59
BUY NoTrump out as President before 2027?95.7¢500$47989%59
BUY No9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?97¢1,515$1,47089%59
BUY NoWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?96¢3,000$2,88089%59
SELL NoWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?96.2¢200$19289%59