sharpside
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Traders/Rank #19,262

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0xfbc…30be
1y+PoliticsOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$2,855vol $158k
PnL 30d+$12gains $0 · losses $0
PnL 7d+$2.31win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate56.1%adj 54.5% · 30d 0.0%
Open value$2,918cash n/a
Positions14 / 71open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age1.7ylast trade 6mo ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$3,378below peak −$5,043Oct 13

SharpScore inputs

18/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 56.1% · shrunk toward 50%36
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable62
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? · Noclosed+$1,768US forces enter Iran by April 30? · Yesclosed+$1,503Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025? · Noclosed+$956US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? · Yesclosed+$740Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yesclosed+$590

Worst markets

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yesclosed−$2,346US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? · Yesclosed−$1,663Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? · Yesopen−$1,200Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? · Yesopen−$1,000New pandemic before July? · Yesclosed−$977

Open positions · 14

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?Yes1,13887.9¢100¢$1,138+$138$0
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Yes97961.3¢100¢$979+$379$0
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?No62564¢100¢$625+$225$0
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Yes1,58031.7¢7.2¢$115−$386$0
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?Yes42723.4¢8.5¢$36−$64$0
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Yes46621.5¢5.3¢$25−$75$0
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?Yes5,96716.8¢0¢$0−$1,000$0
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?Yes1,97160.9¢0¢$0−$1,200$0
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?No1,78144.9¢0¢$0−$800$0
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025?Yes1,17217.1¢0¢$0−$200$0
US recession in 2025?Yes79038¢0¢$0−$300$0
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?Yes57135¢0¢$0−$200$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?Yes33878.8¢0¢$0−$266−$216
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?Yes31332¢0¢$0−$100$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL YesWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?29.3¢7,356$2,15456%18
SELL YesTrump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?92¢444$40956%18
BUY YesTrump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?45¢444$20056%18
SELL NoKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?69.6¢1,449$1,00856%18
BUY YesBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?32¢313$10056%18
BUY YesWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?61.7¢6,479$4,00056%18
SELL YesUS forces enter Iran by April 30?99.6¢4,320$4,30356%18
BUY NoWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?43.9¢1,740$76456%18
BUY YesWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?57¢877$50056%18
BUY YesUS forces enter Iran by April 30?68¢2,941$2,00056%18
BUY YesUS forces enter Iran by April 30?58¢1,379$80056%18
BUY NoWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?64¢625$40056%18
SELL YesWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?79.1¢1,439$1,13856%18
BUY YesWill Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?87.9¢1,138$1,00056%18
SELL YesUS x Iran ceasefire by April 30?48¢257$12356%18
SELL YesWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?99.8¢1,149$1,14756%18
BUY NoKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?69¢1,449$1,00056%18
SELL YesWill Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?81.2¢725$58856%18
BUY YesWill Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?69¢725$50056%18
BUY YesWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?35¢571$20056%18