sharpside
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Traders/Rank #1,210

XAE12Archangel

0xfbf…0029@polymarketbet
SharpWhalePnL 100k+PnL 50k+PnL 10k+WR 70+WR 60+1y+PoliticsOtherCrypto
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$164kvol $374M
PnL 30d−$268kgains $515k · losses $343k
PnL 7d−$841win rate 7d 71.4%
Win rate71.4%adj 70.6% · 30d 57.5%
Open value$106kcash n/a
Positions175 / 1,761open / all-time
Max drawdown−9.1%of equity peak
Account age2.5ylast trade 19h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$388kbelow peak $0Oct 9

SharpScore inputs

80/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale75
Adjusted win rateraw 71.4% · shrunk toward 50%76
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d97
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity91

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?No42.8k88.6¢89.5¢$38.3k+$390−$2,344
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?No35.0k84¢84.5¢$29.6k+$175+$1,297
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?No7,65486.7¢97.5¢$7,463+$823$0
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?No6,99678.9¢98.4¢$6,885+$1,362+$219
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?No35.0k16¢15.5¢$5,425−$174+$72.0k
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?No4,36674.7¢91.5¢$3,995+$735$0
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027?No3,49185.5¢75.9¢$2,651−$334+$23
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?No2,26192.2¢93.8¢$2,121+$36+$2.96
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December?No1,26776.8¢95.5¢$1,210+$237$0
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?No1,42990.4¢83.7¢$1,196−$95+$19
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027?No2,49088.1¢43¢$1,071−$1,123−$233
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?No90287.9¢91.6¢$825+$33$0
Will XRP reach $3.00 by December 31, 2026?No76784.5¢92.3¢$708+$59$0
Will Kanye West meet with Vladimir Putin by October 31?No49596.2¢99.5¢$492+$16$0
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026?No45175.4¢87.5¢$395+$55$0
Obama federally charged before 2027?No37188.8¢96.7¢$359+$29+$0.63
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.90% before 2027?No50282.7¢69.5¢$349−$66−$51
Republican House odds dip to 5% by October 31?No33876¢87.5¢$296+$39$0
Will XRP reach $2.80 by December 31, 2026?No28691.1¢93.3¢$267+$6.33$0
Will XRP reach $2.60 by December 31, 2026?No29185.2¢89¢$259+$11$0
Will Trump meet with Changpeng Zhao in 2026?No26391¢89.5¢$235−$3.94$0
Rubio flips Vance for GOP nomination by October 31?No20098¢98¢$196$0$0
Natural Disaster in 2026?No20174.4¢93.5¢$188+$38$0
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?No20089¢93.5¢$187+$9.00−$3.50
Republican Senate odds dip to 25% by October 31?No22067¢82.5¢$182+$34$0
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?No39747.7¢43.5¢$172−$17$0
Tim Walz in jail by December 31?No15094¢97.3¢$146+$4.88$0
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?No15088.7¢95.5¢$144+$10$0
XRP all time high by December 31, 2026?No15066¢94.2¢$141+$42$0
Will XRP reach $3.80 by December 31, 2026?No12192¢96.8¢$117+$5.72$0
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?No10989.6¢92.5¢$101+$3.15+$57
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?No10889.9¢89.9¢$97−$0.03$0
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?No11565.6¢77¢$89+$13$0
Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027?No8461.2¢92.6¢$78+$26+$341
Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2027?No8171.6¢85.5¢$69+$11−$0.20
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes14648¢43.5¢$64−$6.54$0
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% before 2027?No22186.5¢21¢$46−$145−$185
Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?No1774.3¢88.5¢$15+$2.42$0
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% before 2027?No2351.2¢62¢$14+$2.44+$64
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Yes2,62220¢0.5¢$12−$513−$23.8k
Will XRP dip to $0.40 by December 31, 2026?No1080¢98¢$9.76+$1.79$0
Will Hyperliquid dip to $50 by December 31, 2026?Yes10035¢9.5¢$9.50−$26$0
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Yes2,62220¢0.4¢$9.18−$515−$23.9k
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026?Yes26665.4¢2.2¢$5.85−$168$0
Will XRP reach $3.40 by December 31, 2026?No586¢95.3¢$4.76+$0.47$0
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0% or lower before 2027?No595¢98.4¢$4.64+$0.16$0
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Yes2,62218.5¢0.2¢$3.93−$482−$24.2k
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?Yes368.4¢1.6¢$0.04−$1.76−$6.33
Will Kanye West win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Yes15.5M3.3¢0¢$0−$511k+$95.9k
Will Chris Christie win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Yes15.5M3.3¢0¢$0−$511k+$95.9k
Will Elizabeth Warren win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Yes15.5M3.3¢0¢$0−$511k+$95.9k
Will AOC win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Yes15.5M3.3¢0¢$0−$511k+$95.9k
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Yes15.5M3.3¢0¢$0−$511k+$95.9k
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Yes15.5M3.3¢0¢$0−$511k+$95.9k
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Yes13.7M3.3¢0¢$0−$456k+$42.2k
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Yes10.5M3.4¢0¢$0−$356k−$54.0k
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Yes9.09M3.4¢0¢$0−$310k−$99.0k
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Yes7.71M3.5¢0¢$0−$268k−$139k
Will Nikki Haley win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Yes7.43M3.5¢0¢$0−$259k−$146k
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?Yes7.25M0.1¢0¢$0−$6,308−$152k
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Yes5.35M3.6¢0¢$0−$194k−$197k
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Yes5.29M3.6¢0¢$0−$192k−$208k
Will any other Democratic Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Yes5.29M3.6¢0¢$0−$192k−$205k
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?Yes4.40M0.1¢0¢$0−$4,614−$3,968
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?Yes1.62M0.1¢0¢$0−$1,346−$1,722
Will any other Republican Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Yes1.55M3.6¢0¢$0−$55.8k−$325k
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?Yes1.47M0.2¢0¢$0−$2,339−$131k
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?Yes1.45M14.3¢0¢$0−$207k−$210k
Will Elizabeth Warren win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?Yes319k3.2¢0¢$0−$10.2k−$10.9k
Will Kanye West win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?Yes313k3.2¢0¢$0−$9,999−$11.1k
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes243k16.4¢0¢$0−$39.7k−$117k
Will Bernie Sanders win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?Yes189k3.2¢0¢$0−$6,036−$14.9k
Will Chris Christie win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?Yes187k3.1¢0¢$0−$5,880−$15.1k
Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair?Yes142k2¢0¢$0−$2,849+$169
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair?Yes142k2¢0¢$0−$2,849+$169
Will Trump nominate Barron Trump as the next Fed chair?Yes142k2¢0¢$0−$2,849+$169
Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair?Yes142k2¢0¢$0−$2,849+$169
Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick as the next Fed chair?Yes142k2¢0¢$0−$2,849+$169
Will Trump nominate Larry Lindsey as the next Fed chair?Yes142k2¢0¢$0−$2,849+$169
Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair?Yes142k2¢0¢$0−$2,849+$169
Will Trump nominate Marc Sumerlin as the next Fed chair?Yes142k2¢0¢$0−$2,849+$169
Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair?Yes142k2¢0¢$0−$2,849+$169
Will Trump nominate Ron Paul as the next Fed chair?Yes142k2¢0¢$0−$2,849+$169
Will Trump nominate Bill Pulte as the next Fed chair?Yes142k2¢0¢$0−$2,849+$169
Will Trump nominate David Zervos as the next Fed chair?Yes142k2¢0¢$0−$2,849+$169
Will Trump nominate himself as the next Fed chair?Yes142k2¢0¢$0−$2,849+$169
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?Yes129k3.2¢0¢$0−$4,087−$16.8k
Will AOC win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?Yes129k3.2¢0¢$0−$4,154−$16.8k
Will Trump nominate Philip Jefferson as the next Fed chair?Yes116k1.8¢0¢$0−$2,139−$514
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair?Yes109k1.8¢0¢$0−$2,016−$630
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting?Yes45.7k32.6¢0¢$0−$14.9k−$197k
Will Gavin Newsom win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?Yes35.2k3.4¢0¢$0−$1,178−$19.6k
Biden wins the Popular Vote?Yes35.2k3.3¢0¢$0−$1,148−$19.7k
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes29.9k20¢0¢$0−$5,976−$282k
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in September?No10.0k0.9¢0¢$0−$90−$0.04
France wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?Yes4,93415.4¢0¢$0−$758$0
Great Britain wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?Yes4,93415.4¢0¢$0−$758$0
Another country wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?Yes4,93415.4¢0¢$0−$758$0
Japan wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?Yes4,93415.4¢0¢$0−$758$0
Will Michelle Obama win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?Yes4,8964.5¢0¢$0−$218−$16.6k

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027?68.9¢41$2871%80Sharp
BUY NoWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?16¢5,961$95471%80Sharp
BUY NoWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?18¢2,622$47271%80Sharp
BUY NoWill XRP reach $3.00 by December 31, 2026?94.4¢191$18071%80Sharp
BUY NoWill the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?35¢631$22171%80Sharp
BUY NoWill the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?36¢552$19971%80Sharp
BUY NoRepublican House odds dip to 5% by October 31?76¢288$21971%80Sharp
SELL YesWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?0.2¢33.9k$6871%80Sharp
BUY NoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?82¢7,571$6,20871%80Sharp
SELL YesWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?0.2¢41.1k$8271%80Sharp
BUY NoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?82¢4,697$3,85171%80Sharp
SELL NoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?83¢104$8671%80Sharp
SELL YesWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?0.4¢49.2k$19771%80Sharp
BUY NoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?84¢4,363$3,66571%80Sharp
BUY NoWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?17¢17.9k$3,04771%80Sharp
BUY NoWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?92.9¢615$57171%80Sharp
BUY NoWill XRP reach $2.60 by December 31, 2026?85.1¢266$22671%80Sharp
BUY NoWill XRP reach $2.80 by December 31, 2026?89.7¢131$11871%80Sharp
SELL NoWill the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?92.9¢498$46371%80Sharp
BUY NoWill the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?89¢526$46871%80Sharp