| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026? | No | 1,307 | 72.8¢ | 91.5¢ | $1,196 | +$244 | $0 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | No | 2,111 | 42.8¢ | 42.5¢ | $897 | −$5.39 | $0 | |
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 2,551 | 21¢ | 21.5¢ | $548 | +$13 | $0 | |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? | No | 900 | 42.4¢ | 54.5¢ | $490 | +$109 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 1,453 | 29.8¢ | 23.5¢ | $341 | −$92 | +$1.28 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | No | 600 | 31.7¢ | 37.5¢ | $225 | +$35 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 640 | 16.2¢ | 19.5¢ | $125 | +$21 | $0 | |
| Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026? | No | 420 | 48¢ | 27¢ | $113 | −$88 | $0 | |
| Will Robert Barro win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? | No | 106 | 94¢ | 93.3¢ | $99 | −$0.74 | $0 | |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 100 | 83¢ | 82.5¢ | $83 | −$0.50 | −$1.00 | |
| Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,421 | 8¢ | 5.5¢ | $78 | −$36 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 200 | 28.1¢ | 30.5¢ | $61 | +$4.70 | $0 | |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? | No | 796 | 9¢ | 7.5¢ | $60 | −$12 | $0 | |
| Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)? | Yes | 92 | 64¢ | 63.5¢ | $58 | −$0.46 | $0 | |
| Iran full airspace closure by December 31? | Yes | 200 | 31¢ | 23.5¢ | $47 | −$15 | $0 | |
| Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Qatar by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 211 | 22.2¢ | 18.3¢ | $39 | −$8.24 | $0 | |
| Will "Whalefall" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 52 | 68¢ | 64¢ | $33 | −$2.08 | $0 | |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2027? | Yes | 200 | 7¢ | 15.5¢ | $31 | +$17 | $0 | |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.5% at the end of 2027? | Yes | 200 | 13¢ | 14.5¢ | $29 | +$3.00 | $0 | |
| Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in December? | Yes | 350 | 13.6¢ | 7.4¢ | $26 | −$22 | $0 | |
| Will Luigi Zingales win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? | No | 26 | 93¢ | 97.9¢ | $25 | +$1.26 | $0 | |
| Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%? | Yes | 53 | 80¢ | 43.5¢ | $23 | −$19 | $0 | |
| Will Andreu Mas-Colell win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? | No | 23 | 95¢ | 98.6¢ | $23 | +$0.82 | $0 | |
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 2,300 | 0.9¢ | 1¢ | $22 | +$1.15 | $0 | |
| Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 17.5 and 20 million views on day 1? | Yes | 60 | 30¢ | 32¢ | $19 | +$1.20 | $0 | |
| Will Matthew Rabin win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? | Yes | 532 | 7¢ | 3.6¢ | $19 | −$18 | $0 | |
| Will Partha Dasgupta win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? | No | 20 | 95¢ | 94.3¢ | $19 | −$0.15 | $0 | |
| Will any other model be the best AI model on October 12, 2026? | Yes | 19 | 92.6¢ | 98.5¢ | $18 | +$1.10 | $0 | |
| Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in November? | Yes | 360 | 14.4¢ | 5¢ | $18 | −$34 | −$3.59 | |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy) | Yes | 100 | 28¢ | 17.5¢ | $18 | −$11 | $0 | |
| Will Susan Athey win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? | No | 20 | 86¢ | 87¢ | $17 | +$0.20 | $0 | |
| Will "Wild Horse Nine" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 79 | 16¢ | 20¢ | $16 | +$3.18 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | Yes | 25 | 59.1¢ | 58¢ | $15 | −$0.28 | $0 | |
| Carles Puigdemont back in Spain by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 48 | 18.5¢ | 18.1¢ | $8.66 | −$0.22 | $0 | |
| Will The Odyssey win Best Casting at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 20 | 41¢ | 40.5¢ | $7.90 | −$0.10 | $0 | |
| Will Hal Varian win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? | Yes | 92 | 8¢ | 7¢ | $6.44 | −$0.92 | $0 | |
| Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by October 15? | Yes | 334 | 3¢ | 1.3¢ | $4.17 | −$5.84 | $0 | |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026? | No | 4 | 75¢ | 99.4¢ | $3.98 | +$0.98 | $0 | |
| Will "Street Fighter" score at least 30 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 71 | 6¢ | 5.5¢ | $3.85 | −$0.39 | $0 | |
| Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Turkey by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 100 | 5¢ | 2.7¢ | $2.65 | −$2.35 | $0 | |
| Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026? | No | 15 | 22¢ | 17¢ | $2.55 | −$0.75 | $0 | |
| Will Ernst Fehr win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? | Yes | 20 | 8¢ | 6.1¢ | $1.22 | −$0.38 | $0 | |
| Will Partha Dasgupta win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? | Yes | 20 | 8¢ | 5.8¢ | $1.15 | −$0.45 | $0 | |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 3 | 62¢ | 43.5¢ | $1.14 | −$0.49 | $0 | |
| Will Victor Chernozhukov win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? | Yes | 31 | 10¢ | 3.5¢ | $1.07 | −$2.03 | $0 | |
| Will Javier Milei win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? | Yes | 77 | 5¢ | 0.8¢ | $0.62 | −$3.24 | $0 | |
| Will "Wild Horse Nine" score at least 87 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 12 | 3¢ | 5.1¢ | $0.61 | +$0.25 | $0 | |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 140 and 150 million views on week 1? | Yes | 66 | 29.2¢ | 0.1¢ | $0.03 | −$19 | $0 | |
| Will MrBeast's next video get at least 150 million views on week 1? | No | 63 | 44¢ | 0.1¢ | $0.03 | −$28 | $0 | |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 4,152 | 35.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,462 | −$2,392 | |
| Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? | No | 1,275 | 64.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$819 | +$19 | |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 30? | Down | 800 | 23.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$188 | −$1.62 | |
| Will 200-224 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12? | Yes | 609 | 16.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$98 | −$3.90 | |
| Will 175-199 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12? | Yes | 601 | 28.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$174 | −$43 | |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | No | 400 | 70¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$280 | $0 | |
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? | Up | 400 | 63¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$252 | $0 | |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? | Down | 400 | 11¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$44 | $0 | |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase July 7-13? | Yes | 374 | 22.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$82 | −$3.63 | |
| Will Microstrategy announce selling any Bitcoin July 7-13? | Yes | 371 | 16.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$62 | −$3.60 | |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? | Yes | 300 | 73¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$219 | $0 | |
| Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of May 11 above $430? | Yes | 250 | 68.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$171 | $0 | |
| Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 14, 2026? | No | 200 | 69¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$138 | −$0.68 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | No | 200 | 49¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$98 | $0 | |
| Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 5? | Up | 200 | 12.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$25 | −$0.51 | |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 13? | Up | 200 | 12.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$25 | $0 | |
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 13? | Up | 200 | 12.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$25 | $0 | |
| S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 1? | No | 198 | 44.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$88 | −$1.92 | |
| NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 5? | Up | 153 | 49.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$75 | −$11 | |
| Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 14? | Up | 150 | 63.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$95 | $0 | |
| Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19? | Yes | 150 | 9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$13 | $0 | |
| Will 125-149 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19? | Yes | 150 | 7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$10 | $0 | |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 4? | Up | 129 | 49.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$64 | $0 | |
| Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of May 11 above $435? | Yes | 126 | 61.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$78 | +$5.12 | |
| Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? | Yes | 100 | 29¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$29 | $0 | |
| Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during their summit? | Yes | 100 | 36¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$36 | $0 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | No | 100 | 54¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$54 | $0 | |
| MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18? | No | 100 | 12¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$12 | $0 | |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? | Yes | 100 | 2.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2.40 | $0 | |
| Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during their summit? | Yes | 100 | 30¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$30 | $0 | |
| Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August 2026? | Yes | 100 | 11¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$11 | $0 | |
| Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 10? | No | 100 | 1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.00 | +$0.81 | |
| Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of May 11 above $425? | Yes | 100 | 68¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$68 | $0 | |
| Will Jynxzi, Ron, and Los have between 180 and 209 Minecraft deaths during the marathon? | Yes | 87 | 16¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$14 | $0 | |
| Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a spider? | No | 67 | 30¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$20 | $0 | |
| Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los be eliminated by lava in a 3rd timeframe? | No | 66 | 37.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$25 | $0 | |
| Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $410 on May 4? | No | 60 | 85¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$51 | $0 | |
| Will Los have the most in-game deaths during the Minecraft marathon? | No | 52 | 6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.13 | $0 | |
| Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $410 on April 29? | No | 41 | 80¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$33 | −$45 | |
| Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026? | Yes | 30 | 27¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$8.10 | −$3.13 | |
| Will the International Space Station win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 27 | 6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.62 | $0 | |
| Will US crude oil reserves fall to 270M by September 25, 2026? | Yes | 22 | 32.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$7.26 | $0 | |
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 4? | Up | 21 | 46¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$9.54 | $0 | |