| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | 56.9k | 62.7¢ | 70.5¢ | $40.1k | +$4,410 | −$891 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 32.3k | 22.7¢ | 17.5¢ | $5,659 | −$1,678 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | Yes | 40.5k | 13.6¢ | 7.5¢ | $3,036 | −$2,476 | $0 | |
| Deel IPO before 2027? | No | 855 | 67¢ | 99.4¢ | $850 | +$277 | $0 | |
| Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? | No | 883 | 14¢ | 95.5¢ | $843 | +$719 | +$147 | |
| Anthropic IPO before 2027? | Yes | 660 | 66.5¢ | 77.5¢ | $512 | +$73 | −$104 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | 251 | 51.8¢ | 96.7¢ | $243 | +$113 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | Yes | 367 | 5.9¢ | 56.8¢ | $208 | +$187 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,633 | 74.3¢ | 4.6¢ | $75 | −$1,139 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 43 | 5¢ | 72.3¢ | $31 | +$29 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | Yes | 476 | 71.1¢ | 4.3¢ | $20 | −$318 | $0 | |
| Discord IPO before 2027? | No | 15 | 23.6¢ | 90.9¢ | $13 | +$9.85 | +$5,949 | |
| Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 17.8k | 0.2¢ | 0.1¢ | $8.88 | −$29 | $0 | |
| Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 762k | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3,917 | −$294 | |
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 413k | 1.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5,362 | +$12.2k | |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 399k | 6.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$25.1k | −$704 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 232k | 30.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$70.2k | +$58.9k | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | Yes | 222k | 28.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$62.6k | −$2,474 | |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? | Yes | 186k | 2.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$4,917 | −$76 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | Yes | 179k | 4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$7,151 | +$4,071 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? | Yes | 176k | 4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$7,075 | −$122 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | Yes | 154k | 9.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$14.8k | +$24 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 85.6k | 1.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,508 | −$9.59 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | Yes | 79.1k | 7.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5,827 | −$2,017 | |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 78.8k | 5.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$4,670 | −$4,989 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | No | 77.7k | 7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5,437 | −$176 | |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | No | 77.1k | 45¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$34.7k | −$954 | |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 21? | Yes | 68.4k | 14.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$9,899 | −$1,938 | |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026? | No | 61.5k | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$61 | −$2.46 | |
| Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 59.1k | 0¢ | 0¢ | $0 | $0 | $0 | |
| Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 59.1k | 0¢ | 0¢ | $0 | $0 | $0 | |
| Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 59.1k | 0¢ | 0¢ | $0 | $0 | $0 | |
| Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 59.1k | 0¢ | 0¢ | $0 | $0 | $0 | |
| Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 59.1k | 0¢ | 0¢ | $0 | $0 | $0 | |
| Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 59.1k | 0¢ | 0¢ | $0 | $0 | $0 | |
| Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 59.1k | 0¢ | 0¢ | $0 | $0 | $0 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? | Yes | 51.1k | 10¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5,084 | $0 | |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | No | 50.0k | 10¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5,000 | $0 | |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 45.8k | 15.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$6,895 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? | No | 43.9k | 7.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3,439 | +$963 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? | Yes | 38.3k | 14.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5,562 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 32.6k | 1.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$419 | +$18.6k | |
| Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 30.8k | 1.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$443 | −$0.72 | |
| Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? | No | 30.0k | 70.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$21.2k | $0 | |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 27.9k | 30.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$8,534 | $0 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 26.8k | 30.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$8,076 | −$224 | |
| Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 25.2k | 1.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$449 | −$0.95 | |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | No | 24.5k | 11.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,771 | +$682 | |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 24.0k | 44.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$10.6k | −$722 | |
| Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? | Yes | 23.7k | 7.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,717 | $0 | |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | Yes | 23.0k | 22.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5,089 | +$67 | |
| Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 23.0k | 1.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$436 | −$0.40 | |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? | No | 21.2k | 7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,485 | −$730 | |
| Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? | No | 21.0k | 24.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5,080 | −$16 | |
| Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 20.9k | 18¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3,754 | +$400 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | Yes | 20.8k | 11.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,398 | $0 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | No | 19.8k | 15.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3,002 | +$9,590 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | No | 19.1k | 0.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$165 | +$16.8k | |
| Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? | No | 17.7k | 32¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5,656 | −$2,224 | |
| Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 16.6k | 30.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5,003 | −$412 | |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? | No | 16.4k | 5.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$970 | −$27 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | No | 15.0k | 12.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,846 | $0 | |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 14.6k | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$45 | −$0.27 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | No | 14.3k | 18.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,650 | +$1,133 | |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | Yes | 14.2k | 7.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,049 | $0 | |
| Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | Yes | 13.8k | 2.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$295 | −$83 | |
| Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 13.6k | 3.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$426 | −$0.01 | |
| Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 13.6k | 3.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$426 | −$0.01 | |
| Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 13.6k | 3.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$426 | −$0.01 | |
| Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 13.6k | 3.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$426 | −$0.01 | |
| Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 13.6k | 3.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$426 | −$0.01 | |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 13.6k | 3.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$426 | −$0.01 | |
| Will StepFun have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 13.6k | 3.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$426 | −$0.01 | |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 13.6k | 3.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$426 | −$0.01 | |
| Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 13.6k | 3.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$426 | −$0.01 | |
| Will MiniMax have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 13.6k | 3.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$426 | −$0.01 | |
| Will Thinky have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 13.6k | 3.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$426 | −$0.01 | |
| Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 13.6k | 3.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$426 | −$0.01 | |
| Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 13.6k | 3.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$426 | −$0.01 | |
| Will Nvidia have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 13.6k | 3.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$426 | −$0.01 | |
| Will Tencent have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 13.6k | 3.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$426 | −$0.01 | |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? | No | 12.5k | 21.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,726 | −$14 | |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 11.9k | 9.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,165 | +$359 | |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 11.2k | 40.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$4,557 | $0 | |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 22, 2026? | Yes | 10.7k | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$54 | $0 | |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 10.7k | 13.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,478 | −$38 | |
| Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 10.6k | 1.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$198 | $0 | |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 10.6k | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$32 | −$1.26 | |
| Gemini 3.5 released by June 30? | No | 10.2k | 2.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$300 | $0 | |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026? | Yes | 10.1k | 7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$707 | $0 | |
| US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? | Yes | 10.0k | 10¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,005 | $0 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April? | Yes | 9,799 | 3.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$310 | −$22 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | Yes | 9,134 | 6.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$578 | $0 | |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 9,083 | 9.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$892 | +$704 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between September 28 and October 4, 2026? | Yes | 8,848 | 9.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$832 | −$30 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | Yes | 7,508 | 27.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,057 | −$230 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 7,431 | 3.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$258 | +$114 | |
| Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? | No | 7,069 | 25.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,793 | +$894 | |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 7,062 | 12.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$902 | $0 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Yes | 6,774 | 30¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,032 | −$901 | |