| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 4,266 | 3.1¢ | 85.7¢ | $3,656 | +$3,522 | +$962 | |
| Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | No | 4,917 | 81.4¢ | 73¢ | $3,589 | −$414 | +$262 | |
| Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? | No | 4,628 | 74.7¢ | 73.5¢ | $3,401 | −$58 | +$2,135 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? | No | 4,063 | 79.2¢ | 74¢ | $3,007 | −$212 | +$362 | |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 2,898 | 3.6¢ | 95.5¢ | $2,768 | +$2,664 | +$580 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 3,615 | 3.1¢ | 69.5¢ | $2,513 | +$2,400 | +$308 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? | No | 2,780 | 88.9¢ | 86.5¢ | $2,405 | −$67 | +$18 | |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 3,980 | 1.1¢ | 53.7¢ | $2,135 | +$2,091 | +$3,081 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026? | No | 4,584 | 49.3¢ | 44.5¢ | $2,040 | −$222 | +$53 | |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 2,124 | 7.7¢ | 95.6¢ | $2,030 | +$1,866 | +$489 | |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting? | No | 2,262 | 89.7¢ | 89.5¢ | $2,024 | −$4.41 | −$354 | |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? | Yes | 2,169 | 0¢ | 93¢ | $2,017 | +$2,017 | $0 | |
| Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Yes | 1,882 | 3.1¢ | 96.2¢ | $1,810 | +$1,751 | +$251 | |
| Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? | No | 1,846 | 85.5¢ | 89¢ | $1,643 | +$65 | +$335 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? | No | 2,031 | 76.1¢ | 77.5¢ | $1,574 | +$28 | +$799 | |
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 1,392 | 2.2¢ | 96.1¢ | $1,337 | +$1,306 | +$2,827 | |
| Will Dune: Messiah have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | No | 1,313 | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | $1,312 | +$1.97 | −$766 | |
| Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | No | 2,589 | 55.7¢ | 47.5¢ | $1,230 | −$213 | +$3,868 | |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 8,114 | 3.6¢ | 15.1¢ | $1,225 | +$935 | +$1,329 | |
| Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | Yes | 1,441 | 1.7¢ | 77.5¢ | $1,117 | +$1,092 | +$241 | |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | No | 1,129 | 83.8¢ | 96.1¢ | $1,085 | +$138 | −$7.18 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 2,601 | 3.8¢ | 41.5¢ | $1,079 | +$979 | +$685 | |
| Will the Democratic Party win the MT-01 House seat? | No | 1,592 | 74.3¢ | 66.5¢ | $1,059 | −$124 | +$129 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | No | 2,438 | 32.1¢ | 42.5¢ | $1,036 | +$254 | +$9,944 | |
| No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1,073 | 20¢ | 95.7¢ | $1,026 | +$812 | +$72 | |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | Yes | 1,476 | 3.7¢ | 63.5¢ | $937 | +$883 | +$918 | |
| Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? | Yes | 2,461 | 16.7¢ | 38¢ | $935 | +$525 | +$378 | |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | No | 1,855 | 59.6¢ | 48.5¢ | $900 | −$206 | +$2,553 | |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections? | Yes | 945 | 2¢ | 91¢ | $860 | +$841 | +$161 | |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? | Yes | 3,724 | 20¢ | 22.5¢ | $838 | +$93 | +$314 | |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 1,886 | 3.6¢ | 43.4¢ | $818 | +$751 | +$135 | |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 1,979 | 1.1¢ | 39.8¢ | $787 | +$765 | +$2,562 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | No | 2,094 | 29.8¢ | 37.5¢ | $785 | +$162 | +$3,868 | |
| Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026? | No | 1,070 | 67.7¢ | 70¢ | $749 | +$25 | +$87 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026? | No | 820 | 65.3¢ | 90.5¢ | $742 | +$207 | +$30 | |
| Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026? | Yes | 1,073 | 25¢ | 67.5¢ | $724 | +$456 | +$24 | |
| Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat? | No | 847 | 76.7¢ | 81.5¢ | $691 | +$41 | +$145 | |
| Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026? | Yes | 972 | 14.3¢ | 69.4¢ | $674 | +$536 | +$119 | |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? | Yes | 849 | 6.7¢ | 79¢ | $671 | +$614 | +$321 | |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? | No | 677 | 95.2¢ | 95.4¢ | $646 | +$1.35 | −$532 | |
| Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? | Yes | 882 | 1.9¢ | 66.4¢ | $586 | +$569 | +$85 | |
| Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | No | 625 | 91.8¢ | 92.5¢ | $578 | +$4.27 | +$4.84 | |
| Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? | Yes | 619 | 0¢ | 91.1¢ | $564 | +$564 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026? | No | 631 | 80.9¢ | 87.5¢ | $552 | +$41 | +$430 | |
| Will Cadu de Lula win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election? | No | 635 | 81.2¢ | 86¢ | $546 | +$30 | +$130 | |
| Will Portugal win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League? | No | 615 | 86.1¢ | 88.1¢ | $542 | +$12 | −$17 | |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? | Yes | 963 | 0¢ | 56¢ | $539 | +$539 | $0 | |
| Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | Yes | 2,499 | 1.7¢ | 21.3¢ | $532 | +$489 | +$521 | |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | Yes | 521 | 8.3¢ | 99.1¢ | $516 | +$473 | +$408 | |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | No | 1,215 | 60.2¢ | 42.1¢ | $511 | −$221 | +$8,316 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Minnesota governor race in 2026? | No | 529 | 79.1¢ | 95.1¢ | $503 | +$85 | $0 | |
| Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? | Yes | 816 | 4.2¢ | 61.5¢ | $502 | +$468 | +$418 | |
| Will Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2026 AFC North? | No | 545 | 84.6¢ | 91.5¢ | $498 | +$38 | −$37 | |
| Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? | No | 1,318 | 32¢ | 37.5¢ | $494 | +$73 | +$3,669 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | Yes | 1,741 | 20¢ | 27.5¢ | $479 | +$131 | +$170 | |
| Will Susan Stevenson win the 2026 London mayoral election? | No | 568 | 85.3¢ | 83¢ | $472 | −$13 | +$32 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | No | 693 | 45.8¢ | 67.5¢ | $468 | +$150 | +$235 | |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | 1,099 | 6.7¢ | 42.5¢ | $467 | +$394 | +$1,695 | |
| Will Mikaela Waltersson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Halland? | No | 1,491 | 30¢ | 31¢ | $462 | +$15 | +$983 | |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 713 | 66.7¢ | 64.5¢ | $460 | −$16 | +$1,807 | |
| Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026? | Yes | 978 | 0¢ | 45¢ | $440 | +$440 | $0 | |
| Gavin Newsom Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31? | No | 505 | 89.4¢ | 82.5¢ | $416 | −$35 | −$1.26 | |
| Will Tim O'Hare win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election? | No | 759 | 69.5¢ | 54¢ | $410 | −$117 | +$68 | |
| Will the Republican Party win the FL-25 House seat? | No | 537 | 70.2¢ | 74.5¢ | $400 | +$23 | +$45 | |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 2,888 | 3.1¢ | 13.5¢ | $390 | +$300 | +$884 | |
| Will Chen Ying win the next Taitung County Magistrate election? | No | 471 | 84¢ | 80.7¢ | $380 | −$16 | $0 | |
| Will Trump and Putin not meet? | Yes | 1,999 | 6.7¢ | 18.5¢ | $370 | +$237 | +$518 | |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | No | 1,745 | 17.2¢ | 20.5¢ | $358 | +$58 | +$39.1k | |
| Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | Yes | 2,813 | 2.5¢ | 12.5¢ | $352 | +$281 | +$381 | |
| Will the Democratic Party win the FL-04 House seat? | No | 411 | 87.2¢ | 85.5¢ | $351 | −$7.01 | +$0.06 | |
| Will Nelly Dever win the 2026 Kamloops mayoral election? | No | 435 | 85.1¢ | 80.5¢ | $350 | −$20 | +$32 | |
| Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026? | No | 384 | 90.6¢ | 90.8¢ | $349 | +$0.91 | −$7.90 | |
| Will the Democratic Party win the NC-08 House seat? | No | 357 | 85¢ | 97.5¢ | $348 | +$45 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | No | 461 | 66¢ | 73.5¢ | $339 | +$34 | +$9,835 | |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | No | 2,000 | 20.4¢ | 16.5¢ | $330 | −$78 | +$24.6k | |
| Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts Senate race in 2026? | No | 333 | 94.3¢ | 98.2¢ | $327 | +$13 | −$10 | |
| Will Inter Milan win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship? | Yes | 564 | 4.2¢ | 57.5¢ | $324 | +$301 | +$22 | |
| Will Henrik Fritzon be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Skåne? | No | 329 | 74.3¢ | 98.5¢ | $324 | +$79 | +$4.31 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 2,006 | 20¢ | 15.5¢ | $311 | −$90 | +$1,189 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | No | 1,073 | 29.4¢ | 28.5¢ | $306 | −$9.85 | +$6,138 | |
| Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election? | No | 523 | 59.1¢ | 58¢ | $304 | −$5.64 | +$579 | |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of AUR? | No | 314 | 92.5¢ | 95.8¢ | $301 | +$10 | −$54 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | No | 422 | 70.7¢ | 71¢ | $299 | +$1.20 | +$4,151 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? | No | 611 | 48.5¢ | 49¢ | $299 | +$2.92 | +$610 | |
| Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 33m? | No | 370 | 65.4¢ | 80¢ | $296 | +$54 | +$40 | |
| Will Baltimore Ravens win the 2026 AFC North? | Yes | 512 | 20¢ | 57¢ | $292 | +$189 | +$60 | |
| Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)? | Yes | 408 | 5.9¢ | 69.7¢ | $284 | +$260 | +$156 | |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? | No | 278 | 99.7¢ | 99.6¢ | $277 | −$0.41 | −$5,624 | |
| Will the Democratic Party win the KY-06 House seat? | No | 385 | 80.5¢ | 71¢ | $273 | −$37 | +$17 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | Yes | 361 | 20¢ | 75.5¢ | $273 | +$200 | +$355 | |
| Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement? | Yes | 1,104 | 20¢ | 24.6¢ | $271 | +$50 | +$164 | |
| Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | Yes | 558 | 2.6¢ | 48.5¢ | $271 | +$256 | +$674 | |
| Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the December meeting? | No | 318 | 74.7¢ | 85¢ | $270 | +$33 | +$0.06 | |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | No | 268 | 90.3¢ | 97.2¢ | $260 | +$18 | +$0.16 | |
| Will Alexandru Rogobete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | No | 264 | 93.8¢ | 98.5¢ | $260 | +$12 | −$7.63 | |
| Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | Yes | 27.3k | 2.8¢ | 1¢ | $260 | −$500 | +$10 | |
| Will the Democratic Party win the LA-05 House seat? | No | 275 | 90¢ | 94.3¢ | $260 | +$12 | $0 | |
| Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 1,976 | 0.8¢ | 13¢ | $256 | +$240 | +$267 | |
| Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | No | 268 | 89¢ | 93.5¢ | $250 | +$12 | +$1.16 | |
| Will Leandro Grass win the 2026 Federal District gubernatorial election? | No | 252 | 89.3¢ | 98.7¢ | $249 | +$24 | +$7.77 | |