Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

ends ended · Oct 5 03:59 UTCid 0xdf8e2dc5…Trade on Polymarket Live trades

Δ 24h−1.0¢−6.9%

Volume 24h$277k385 trades

Volume total$20.9M

Open interest$2.50M

Liquidity$1.17M

Spread1.0¢bid–ask

Traders 24h1061 sharp

Whales 24h1 / 2$17.2k / $123k

Price · Yes

Yes13.5¢−24.0¢ rangeOct 8 18:58

net $ by window

Winsell ◂ net ▸ buyNetB / S

30m−$6,0901/0

1h−$6,0901/0

6h−$6,0901/0

12h−$6,0901/0

24h−$6,0901/0

Net USD bought minus sold on Yes by wallets with SharpScore ≥ 70. B / S = distinct sharp buyers / sellers.

WhalesBuysSellsBuy $Sell $30m00——1h00——6h12$17.2k$123k12h12$17.2k$123k24h12$17.2k$123k

hourly · last 24h

Oct 8 19:00 UTC vol $0 traders 0trades 024h total $277k

Oct 7 20:0008:00now

No flags in this marketNo position here combines a new account, outsized size, low entry and late timing strongly enough to flag.

Whale	Side		Entry	Z
0xa5e…2966	No	$4.87M	0¢	31.5σ
RenanPresidente.	No	$331k	78.4¢	2.1σ
65765757	No	$194k	69.8¢	1.2σ
SuperavitFiscal	No	$124k	67¢	0.8σ
Abkhauae	Yes	$77.8k	43.6¢	0.5σ
TheReturnOfDarthMaul	Yes	$77.6k	60.2¢	0.5σ
LulaVaiPerder	No	$71.5k	70¢	0.4σ
ivantoney	No	$61.1k	56.9¢	0.3σ
WordleAddict	No	$53.7k	56.6¢	0.3σ
Jimmy-Carvalho-Opcoes	No	$51.9k	47.4¢	0.3σ
kylox	No	$41.4k	58.5¢	0.2σ
Melody626	No	$36.0k	71.1¢	0.2σ
NSNO	No	$35.9k	45.5¢	0.2σ
0x8b4…541b	Yes	$35.8k	17.2¢	0.2σ
eventalpha26	Yes	$33.1k	41.5¢	0.2σ

#	Trader	SharpScore	Outcome	Shares	Avg price	PnL
1	0xa5e…2966	16	No	5.63M	0¢	+$4.76M
2	0xC03cE4d8Af842Ca6251Ac57228B3Ffb166ed50A	58	Yes	10.0k	6.7¢	+$189k
3	timetowander	57	No	0	85¢	+$183k
4	timetowander	57	Yes	0	1.4¢	+$99.9k
5	0xCB3143ee858E14d0B3FE40fFeaEa78416e646B0	54	Yes	0	1.6¢	+$83.7k
6	kneelbeforetheking	58	Yes	0	3.1¢	+$79.2k
7	betterfasterstronger	47	Yes	0	3.1¢	+$63.0k
8	NyetRisk	39	Yes	716	5.6¢	+$54.3k
9	CoffeeLover	56	Yes	0	3.1¢	+$46.7k
10	Bigggggggg	57	No	0	82¢	+$39.6k