PnL all-time+$11.5kvol $1.45M
PnL 30d+$1,551gains $1,905 · losses $0
PnL 7d−$163win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate93.6%adj 91.9% · 30d 100.0%
Open value$14.9kcash n/a
Positions10 / 1,253open / all-time
Max drawdown−34.3%of equity peak
Account age1.3ylast trade 3h ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$11.3kbelow peak −$337Oct 9
SharpScore inputs
77/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale58
Adjusted win rateraw 93.6% · shrunk toward 50%100
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity66
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? · Yesclosed+$3,133US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? · Noclosed+$1,604US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026? · Noclosed+$1,431Will Trump visit China by June 30? · Yesclosed+$959Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? · Yesclosed+$777
Worst markets
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? · Noclosed−$1,812US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Noclosed−$1,703US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? · Noclosed−$1,580Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on March 27? · Noclosed−$1,406Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C or higher on March 10? · Noclosed−$443
Open positions · 10
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | 13.9k | 93¢ | 91.5¢ | $12.8k | −$209 | −$87 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | No | 2,337 | 90¢ | 89.5¢ | $2,092 | −$13 | +$14 | |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | 7 | 84¢ | 88.5¢ | $6.22 | +$0.32 | $0 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 5 | 90.9¢ | 95.5¢ | $4.58 | +$0.22 | −$206 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | No | 3 | 89¢ | 92.5¢ | $2.70 | +$0.10 | +$20 | |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | No | 3 | 92¢ | 94.5¢ | $2.64 | +$0.07 | +$11 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 2 | 93.7¢ | 97.7¢ | $1.62 | +$0.07 | +$1.23 | |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 1 | 80.1¢ | 87.3¢ | $1.19 | +$0.10 | −$281 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 1 | 91¢ | 96.8¢ | $1.06 | +$0.06 | $0 | |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | 1 | 94.1¢ | 96.2¢ | $1.02 | +$0.02 | $0 |
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