| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 35.4k | 66.4¢ | 63.5¢ | $22.5k | −$1,012 | +$36 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | 13.7k | 92¢ | 91.5¢ | $12.5k | −$64 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? | No | 12.2k | 91¢ | 90.5¢ | $11.1k | −$57 | +$0.34 | |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 9,526 | 90.8¢ | 90.5¢ | $8,621 | −$26 | +$63 | |
| US recession by end of 2026? | No | 8,537 | 87.1¢ | 93.5¢ | $7,983 | +$546 | +$708 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 9,379 | 74.8¢ | 81.5¢ | $7,644 | +$625 | +$200 | |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | 7,189 | 98.5¢ | 99.7¢ | $7,164 | +$82 | +$1,027 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 7,179 | 92.2¢ | 94.5¢ | $6,784 | +$168 | +$4,236 | |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | No | 11.4k | 51.7¢ | 56.5¢ | $6,434 | +$548 | +$1.85 | |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | Yes | 7,839 | 80¢ | 79.5¢ | $6,232 | −$39 | +$301 | |
| Will NuScale announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? | No | 5,921 | 90.2¢ | 89.5¢ | $5,300 | −$43 | −$12 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 6,096 | 83.9¢ | 84.5¢ | $5,151 | +$39 | +$7,022 | |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | No | 6,462 | 71.1¢ | 73¢ | $4,717 | +$121 | +$60 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | No | 7,259 | 59.8¢ | 63.5¢ | $4,610 | +$265 | +$317 | |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 4,808 | 92.4¢ | 95.6¢ | $4,594 | +$149 | +$0.95 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | No | 4,801 | 85.1¢ | 88.5¢ | $4,249 | +$164 | +$348 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | Yes | 6,305 | 63.6¢ | 62.5¢ | $3,941 | −$72 | $0 | |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 28.1k | 10.7¢ | 13.5¢ | $3,799 | +$785 | +$16 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher? | No | 4,000 | 88.4¢ | 95¢ | $3,798 | +$263 | $0 | |
| No one announced as next James Bond? | No | 4,495 | 76.8¢ | 80.6¢ | $3,620 | +$166 | +$63 | |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? | No | 3,657 | 92.8¢ | 94.5¢ | $3,456 | +$64 | +$214 | |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 3,529 | 83.6¢ | 87.5¢ | $3,086 | +$135 | +$1,139 | |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | No | 3,787 | 77.6¢ | 81¢ | $3,068 | +$128 | $0 | |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | 4,276 | 68.1¢ | 71¢ | $3,036 | +$123 | +$278 | |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 6,205 | 50.9¢ | 48.6¢ | $3,013 | −$145 | +$1,615 | |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 3,941 | 78.4¢ | 73.5¢ | $2,897 | −$195 | −$165 | |
| Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium? | No | 2,867 | 93.8¢ | 95.5¢ | $2,738 | +$50 | +$6.76 | |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? | Yes | 3,508 | 69¢ | 78¢ | $2,736 | +$315 | $0 | |
| Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | No | 3,000 | 86¢ | 86.5¢ | $2,595 | +$15 | $0 | |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 2,661 | 95.7¢ | 95.6¢ | $2,542 | −$4.70 | +$1,176 | |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 2,933 | 71¢ | 85.7¢ | $2,512 | +$431 | +$6,320 | |
| Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | Yes | 3,239 | 76.6¢ | 73¢ | $2,364 | −$115 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 11.3k | 27¢ | 20.5¢ | $2,310 | −$730 | −$1,349 | |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | 2,633 | 55.9¢ | 87.5¢ | $2,304 | +$832 | +$3,548 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | No | 2,802 | 66.1¢ | 81.5¢ | $2,283 | +$432 | +$7,159 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | Yes | 3,119 | 54.1¢ | 68.5¢ | $2,136 | +$448 | $0 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? | Yes | 2,282 | 90.8¢ | 92.6¢ | $2,113 | +$41 | $0 | |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 2,500 | 69¢ | 84.5¢ | $2,113 | +$388 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | No | 3,082 | 54.8¢ | 67.5¢ | $2,080 | +$391 | $0 | |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 26.5k | 7.8¢ | 7.5¢ | $1,975 | −$93 | +$1,013 | |
| Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2027? | No | 2,441 | 76.6¢ | 78.5¢ | $1,916 | +$47 | $0 | |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | No | 2,123 | 88.5¢ | 90¢ | $1,911 | +$31 | +$68 | |
| Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | No | 2,500 | 78¢ | 72¢ | $1,800 | −$150 | $0 | |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | No | 2,024 | 65.7¢ | 85.5¢ | $1,730 | +$400 | +$1,165 | |
| Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | No | 1,809 | 84.6¢ | 91.5¢ | $1,655 | +$125 | +$40 | |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | No | 1,740 | 84.4¢ | 90¢ | $1,566 | +$98 | −$46 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7? | Yes | 1,522 | 93¢ | 100¢ | $1,522 | +$107 | $0 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 2,350 | 55¢ | 61.5¢ | $1,445 | +$154 | $0 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 2,000 | 73¢ | 71.5¢ | $1,430 | −$30 | $0 | |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026? | No | 2,058 | 61.6¢ | 63.5¢ | $1,307 | +$40 | +$16 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | No | 1,990 | 66.1¢ | 65.5¢ | $1,303 | −$12 | −$88 | |
| UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? | Yes | 12.4k | 29.8¢ | 10.5¢ | $1,303 | −$2,400 | −$110 | |
| Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31? | No | 1,270 | 97¢ | 97.6¢ | $1,239 | +$7.25 | +$342 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | No | 2,000 | 55¢ | 61.5¢ | $1,230 | +$130 | $0 | |
| Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? | Yes | 1,249 | 96¢ | 98.4¢ | $1,228 | +$29 | +$133 | |
| Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? | Yes | 1,960 | 17.8¢ | 62.5¢ | $1,225 | +$876 | +$43 | |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? | No | 1,329 | 89.3¢ | 91.5¢ | $1,216 | +$29 | +$35 | |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 7,836 | 33.9¢ | 15.2¢ | $1,187 | −$1,471 | +$3,889 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 1,692 | 64.1¢ | 69¢ | $1,167 | +$84 | $0 | |
| Will Warsh be out as Fed Chair by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,181 | 96.2¢ | 97.4¢ | $1,149 | +$14 | +$4.12 | |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 1,777 | 51¢ | 62.5¢ | $1,111 | +$204 | +$185 | |
| Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? | No | 1,111 | 92¢ | 97.2¢ | $1,080 | +$57 | +$54 | |
| Anthropic IPO before 2027? | No | 6,169 | 17¢ | 17.5¢ | $1,080 | +$31 | $0 | |
| Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 10.8k | 11.3¢ | 9¢ | $975 | −$245 | $0 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | No | 2,213 | 43.3¢ | 43¢ | $951 | −$7.28 | $0 | |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30? | No | 1,278 | 74.7¢ | 73.5¢ | $940 | −$16 | $0 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | No | 3,986 | 34.4¢ | 23.5¢ | $937 | −$435 | +$20 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 903 | 92.2¢ | 96.8¢ | $873 | +$41 | +$207 | |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | 1,500 | 42¢ | 57.8¢ | $866 | +$236 | $0 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | No | 846 | 85.1¢ | 98¢ | $829 | +$109 | +$67 | |
| Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? | No | 1,267 | 47.2¢ | 62.7¢ | $795 | +$196 | +$54 | |
| Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? | Yes | 1,980 | 20.6¢ | 38¢ | $752 | +$345 | +$29 | |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | No | 827 | 68.3¢ | 87¢ | $720 | +$155 | −$93 | |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 3,164 | 39.9¢ | 22.5¢ | $712 | −$550 | −$1,123 | |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | No | 944 | 70.9¢ | 74¢ | $699 | +$30 | +$284 | |
| Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | Yes | 1,500 | 44¢ | 43.5¢ | $653 | −$7.50 | $0 | |
| Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) be in the next Swedish government? | No | 706 | 89.8¢ | 92.5¢ | $652 | +$19 | −$44 | |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 978 | 54.5¢ | 64.5¢ | $631 | +$98 | +$5.77 | |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 21.4k | 2.5¢ | 2.9¢ | $609 | +$80 | +$242 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | No | 7,166 | 13.3¢ | 8.5¢ | $609 | −$343 | $0 | |
| Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? | No | 677 | 80.7¢ | 89.5¢ | $606 | +$60 | +$123 | |
| Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 3,000 | 28.2¢ | 19.5¢ | $585 | −$260 | $0 | |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? | Yes | 3,000 | 23.5¢ | 19.5¢ | $585 | −$120 | $0 | |
| Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 3,465 | 23.6¢ | 16.5¢ | $572 | −$245 | +$376 | |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 5,000 | 0.5¢ | 10.3¢ | $515 | +$488 | $0 | |
| Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime? | No | 719 | 57.1¢ | 71.5¢ | $514 | +$104 | +$817 | |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | 482 | 70.7¢ | 88.5¢ | $427 | +$86 | +$137 | |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | 1,000 | 60¢ | 42.5¢ | $425 | −$175 | $0 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | No | 393 | 93.4¢ | 97¢ | $381 | +$14 | −$677 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 2,491 | 25.9¢ | 14.5¢ | $361 | −$284 | +$161 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 470 | 69.3¢ | 69.7¢ | $328 | +$1.67 | $0 | |
| Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? | No | 400 | 83¢ | 81.5¢ | $326 | −$6.00 | $0 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | Yes | 2,101 | 19¢ | 15.5¢ | $326 | −$74 | −$38 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 2,071 | 31¢ | 15.5¢ | $321 | −$321 | $0 | |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 1,766 | 16.1¢ | 17.8¢ | $315 | +$32 | −$593 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 494 | 50¢ | 63.5¢ | $314 | +$67 | $0 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | No | 1,793 | 20.3¢ | 17.5¢ | $314 | −$51 | −$106 | |
| Will Democrats win the Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire Senate seats? | Yes | 425 | 65.4¢ | 73¢ | $310 | +$32 | $0 | |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy) | Yes | 1,522 | 20¢ | 19.5¢ | $297 | −$7.14 | $0 | |
| Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 11.2k | 1.2¢ | 2.5¢ | $274 | +$140 | +$3.00 | |
