sharpside
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Traders/Rank #1,592

Quarrelsome-Branch

0x0cb…a76c
SharpPnL 100k+PnL 50k+PnL 10k+WR 70+WR 60+1y+PoliticsSport
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$105kvol $3.65M
PnL 30d+$5,385gains $15.5k · losses $2,079
PnL 7d+$3,731win rate 7d 81.7%
Win rate73.5%adj 72.6% · 30d 76.9%
Open value$94.4kcash n/a
Positions735 / 4,474open / all-time
Max drawdown−1.3%of equity peak
Account age2.0ylast trade 30m ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$109kbelow peak $0Oct 9

SharpScore inputs

84/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale72
Adjusted win rateraw 73.5% · shrunk toward 50%81
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity99

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes89.0k50¢64.5¢$57.4k+$12.9k$0
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No89.0k50¢35.5¢$31.6k−$12.9k$0
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?No43579¢94.5¢$411+$67$0
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?Yes1,01916.5¢22.5¢$229+$61−$34
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Yes50043¢44.5¢$223+$7.50$0
Will Donald Trump visit New Mexico in 2026?Yes48010¢41.5¢$199+$151+$4.00
Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by October 15?No19846¢98.7¢$195+$104$0
Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?Yes65421.3¢29.5¢$193+$54+$33
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Hillary Clinton by October 31, 2026?Yes34040.9¢53¢$180+$41$0
Will Trump say "BMW" in October?Yes36746.2¢49¢$180+$10$0
Will Trump say "Caterpillar" in October?Yes31924.6¢55.5¢$177+$98+$17
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No1,00015.6¢14.4¢$144−$13+$141
Will Trump say "Cake" in October?Yes29525.7¢46.5¢$137+$61+$8.69
Will Trump say "Visa" in October?Yes23946.1¢55¢$132+$21+$0.46
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes2,0005¢5.1¢$101+$1.00$0
Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary?No10050.6¢93.6¢$93+$43$0
Will Trump say "AOC" during his Midterm Rally in New York?Yes15045.7¢61¢$92+$23$0
Will Donald Trump publicly praise Volodymyr Zelenskyy by October 31, 2026?Yes21913.4¢38.5¢$84+$55$0
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?Yes1,04816¢8¢$84−$84$0
Will Donald Trump publicly praise Warren Buffett by October 31, 2026?Yes40720.3¢20.5¢$83+$0.82+$6.00
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes3,0002.3¢2.8¢$83+$14$0
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Yes50026¢15.5¢$78−$53$0
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Yes71311¢10.5¢$75−$3.57$0
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Elizabeth Warren by October 31, 2026?Yes10048.8¢73¢$73+$24+$4.36
Will Trump say "Chicken" in October?Yes10026¢72.5¢$73+$47+$9.62
Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?Yes2,2284.7¢3.2¢$70−$34+$22
Will Trump say "Crime" or "Criminal" 10+ times during his Midterm Rally in New York?Yes10067¢67.5¢$67+$0.50$0
Will Donald Trump publicly praise Benjamin Netanyahu by October 31, 2026?Yes10044.2¢62.5¢$63+$18$0
Will Trump say "Cucumber" in October?Yes11517.7¢53¢$61+$40$0
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?Yes720¢80.5¢$58+$58$0
Will Trump say "Airbus" in October?Yes21016.8¢27¢$57+$21−$0.46
Will Donald Trump publicly praise Javier Milei by October 31, 2026?Yes17717.7¢29¢$51+$20$0
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes19217.3¢25.3¢$48+$15−$7.41
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?Yes37620.7¢12.7¢$48−$30+$274
Will Trump say "Neurotic" in October?Yes9031.7¢52.5¢$47+$19$0
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?Yes23938¢19.5¢$47−$44$0
Will Trump say "Caddie" in October?Yes6726.8¢63¢$42+$24$0
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kathy Hochul by October 31, 2026?Yes4360.7¢93.8¢$40+$14$0
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Zohran Mamdani by October 31, 2026?Yes10710.9¢37¢$40+$28$0
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kaitlan Collins by October 31, 2026?Yes4155.5¢96.5¢$40+$17$0
Will Donald Trump visit Nevada before the midterms?Yes4034¢97.2¢$39+$25$0
Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" 5+ times during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?No5050¢75.5¢$38+$13$0
Will Trump say "Dancing in the Street" in October?No6013¢61¢$37+$29$0
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States?Yes1,4602.5¢2.5¢$36−$1.44+$0.10
Will Trump say "Hell" 10+ times during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?Yes5050¢71¢$36+$11$0
Will Taylor Rogers be the next White House Press Secretary?Yes3,4850.2¢1¢$35+$27$0
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026?Yes27657¢12.5¢$34−$123−$54
Will there be exactly 4 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?Yes12027.2¢27.7¢$33+$0.56+$43
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes5004.8¢6.3¢$31+$7.25$0
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes3,8370.7¢0.8¢$31+$1.92−$0.46
Will Donald Trump publicly praise Delcy Rodriguez by October 31, 2026?Yes4039¢74¢$30+$14$0
Will Trump say "NFL" this week?Yes8050¢36¢$29−$11$0
Will "Prize" be in the headlines this week?Yes7914.7¢35.5¢$28+$16$0
Will Trump say "Buffalo" during his Midterm Rally in New York?Yes5148¢53¢$27+$2.55$0
Will Trump say "Clay" during his Midterm Rally in New York?Yes5248¢51¢$27+$1.56$0
Will Trump say "Six Seven" in October?Yes5556¢47¢$26−$4.97$0
Will Mykola Kuleba win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes1787.8¢14.5¢$26+$12$0
Will Trump say "Beef" in October?Yes3052¢84¢$25+$9.60$0
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?Yes20016¢12¢$24−$8.00$0
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 10+ times during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?Yes5048¢48¢$24$0$0
Will Donald Trump publicly praise Karoline Leavitt by October 31, 2026?Yes4050.5¢57¢$23+$2.61$0
Will Trump say "Weave" in October?Yes4028.2¢57¢$23+$12$0
Will anyone insult Donald Trump during the 2026 Emmy Awards?Yes29343.9¢7.6¢$22−$107−$13
Will Trump say "FedEx" in October?Yes9013¢24.5¢$22+$10+$10
Will Lauren Bis be the next White House Press Secretary?Yes3,5310.6¢0.6¢$21−$1.17$0
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes2,00011.5¢1.1¢$21−$209$0
Will Donald Trump visit Iowa before the midterms?Yes2048¢97.5¢$19+$9.89$0
Will Trump say "Pipeline" during his Midterm Rally in New York?No3445¢56.5¢$19+$3.93$0
Will Trump praise Javier Milei in September?Yes8144¢23¢$19−$17$0
Will Kari Lake be the next White House Press Secretary?Yes3,0310.1¢0.6¢$18+$15$0
Will Trump say "Slob" in October?Yes3050¢60.5¢$18+$3.15$0
Will Donald Trump publicly praise Mark Rutte by October 31, 2026?Yes4823.3¢35¢$17+$5.60$0
Will Donald Trump publicly praise Flávio Bolsonaro by October 31, 2026?Yes2118¢79.5¢$17+$13+$4.21
Will Pat Adams be the next White House Press Secretary?Yes3,6610.1¢0.5¢$16+$12$0
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Thomas Massie by October 31, 2026?Yes4021.5¢38.5¢$15+$6.80$0
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Hakeem Jeffries by October 31, 2026?Yes2050¢75.5¢$15+$5.10$0
Will Trump say "Kim Jong Un" this week?Yes3025¢50¢$15+$7.50$0
Will Trump say "Blowing it away" this week?Yes3051¢50¢$15−$0.30$0
Will Trump say "Oracle" in October?Yes6123¢24.5¢$15+$0.94+$8.50
Will Committee to Protect Journalists win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes5633¢2.5¢$14−$2.81$0
Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?Yes16222.5¢8.5¢$14−$23−$9.93
Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?No4055¢34¢$14−$8.40$0
Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026?Yes33962¢4¢$14−$197$0
Will "Pepas" by Farruko be on the radio in GTA VI at launch?Yes6018.7¢22.5¢$14+$2.30$0
Will Donald Trump publicly praise Dario Amodei by October 31, 2026?Yes3115.7¢42.5¢$13+$8.30$0
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by October 31, 2026?Yes4022¢32.5¢$13+$4.20$0
Will Trump say "Illness" in October?Yes2550¢51¢$13+$0.25−$0.10
Will Trump say "Qualcomm" in October?Yes4014¢30.5¢$12+$6.60+$15
Will "Look at Me!" by XXXTENTACION be on the radio in GTA VI at launch?Yes5414.5¢20¢$11+$2.97$0
Will "Star" be in the headlines this week?Yes3025¢36¢$11+$3.30$0
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Chuck Schumer by October 31, 2026?Yes2037.7¢53.6¢$11+$3.17$0
Will Trump say "Boeing" in October?Yes2026¢53.5¢$11+$5.50+$4.75
Will Matthew Boyle be the next White House Press Secretary?Yes3,0000.3¢0.4¢$11$0$0
Will Trump say "Gay" this week?Yes6037¢16.5¢$9.90−$12$0
Will Kaelan Dorr be the next White House Press Secretary?Yes3,9580.1¢0.3¢$9.89+$5.94$0
Will Donald Trump visit Maine before the midterms?Yes2838.3¢35.5¢$9.87−$0.77$0
Will Kush Desai be the next White House Press Secretary?Yes3,8600.1¢0.2¢$7.72+$3.86$0
Will Katie Pavlich be the next White House Press Secretary?Yes3,0190.2¢0.3¢$7.55+$1.46$0
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?Yes17715¢4.3¢$7.53−$19$0
Will the International Space Station win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes1,0002.6¢0.6¢$6.00−$20$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?4.9¢105$5.1574%84Sharp
SELL YesWill World Central Kitchen win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?3.5¢70$2.4574%84Sharp
BUY YesWill Hussam Abu Safiya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?0.6¢500$3.0074%84Sharp
BUY YesWill Jimmy Lai win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?0.4¢671$2.6874%84Sharp
BUY YesWill Reporters Without Borders win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?0.4¢500$2.0074%84Sharp
SELL YesWill the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?5¢80$3.9974%84Sharp
BUY YesWill ICRC win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?0.3¢540$1.6274%84Sharp
SELL YesWill Mykola Kuleba win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?15¢33$4.9274%84Sharp
BUY YesWill the Parents Circle – Families Forum win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?0.3¢462$1.3874%84Sharp
BUY YesWill António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?0.1¢5,000$5.0074%84Sharp
BUY YesWill Yad Vashem win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?0.1¢1,000$1.0074%84Sharp
BUY YesWill Ilham Tohti win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?0.4¢1,000$4.0074%84Sharp
BUY YesWill UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?1.2¢289$3.3874%84Sharp
BUY YesWill Doctors Without Borders win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?0.7¢451$3.1674%84Sharp
BUY YesWill World Central Kitchen win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?3.6¢91$3.2874%84Sharp
SELL YesWill Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?49.7¢192$9574%84Sharp
BUY YesWill there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?18.5¢227$4274%84Sharp
SELL YesWill the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?6.1¢200$1274%84Sharp
SELL YesWill Committee to Protect Journalists win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?1.5¢200$2.9374%84Sharp
BUY YesWill World Central Kitchen win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?3.1¢440$1474%84Sharp