sharpside
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Traders/Unranked

0x124…a8a9

0x124…a8a9
WR 70+WR 60+1y+OtherPoliticsSport
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$3,990vol $122k
PnL 30d+$172gains $404 · losses $47
PnL 7d−$151win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate77.1%adj 75.0% · 30d 75.0%
Open value$17.5kcash n/a
Positions185 / 423open / all-time
Max drawdown−78.1%of equity peak
Account age2.1ylast trade 6h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$4,195below peak −$743Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

63/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale51
Adjusted win rateraw 77.1% · shrunk toward 50%88
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable88
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity22

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Xi Jinping out before 2027?No4,24495.5¢97.2¢$4,124+$70$0
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?Yes4,38090.8¢91.5¢$4,008+$31$0
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?No3,01592.7¢95.7¢$2,885+$90$0
Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026?No1,13990.7¢95.8¢$1,091+$58$0
Situational Awareness raises new capital by October 31?No1,04562.1¢90.5¢$945+$297+$17
Leopold Aschenbrenner charged in 2026?No60089.7¢94.9¢$569+$31$0
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth <10%?No39086.8¢96.4¢$376+$37$0
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes40084.2¢72¢$288−$49$0
Will RTX (RTX) Q3 Pratt & Whitney sales be above $8.5B?Yes33385.5¢85¢$283−$1.68$0
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q3 investment banking revenue be above $2.0B?Yes29889.7¢93.5¢$278+$11$0
Will Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026?No25492.5¢97.5¢$247+$13$0
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Yes45062¢54¢$243−$36$0
Will Prologis (PLD) Q3 core FFO per diluted share be above $1.55?Yes41465¢58¢$240−$29$0
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 67% to 68%?Yes45741.3¢41.5¢$190+$0.65$0
Will Citigroup (C) Q3 provision for credit losses be above $2.2B?Yes25079¢72.5¢$181−$16$0
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?Yes13486.2¢99.3¢$133+$18$0
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%?Yes30525.7¢39.5¢$120+$42$0
Japan recession in 2026?No11183.8¢95.5¢$106+$13$0
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q3 investment banking fees be above $3.05B?Yes15057.4¢70¢$105+$19$0
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 15% to 17.5%?Yes30526¢30.5¢$93+$14$0
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 68% to 69%?Yes36324.3¢25.5¢$93+$4.45$0
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH?Yes26443.7¢35¢$92−$23$0
Will Interactive Brokers (IBKR) Q3 net interest income be above $1.075B?Yes8677.6¢92.5¢$80+$13$0
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?Yes10048¢69.5¢$70+$22$0
Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 Innovative Medicine revenue be above $16.6B?Yes10263¢68¢$69+$5.11$0
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q3 investment banking fees be above $2.9B?Yes8681.9¢78¢$67−$3.38$0
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings?No10547.9¢58¢$61+$11$0
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 66% to 67%?Yes20727.3¢27.5¢$57+$0.34$0
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) beat quarterly earnings?No42118.7¢12.5¢$53−$26$0
Will Interactive Brokers (IBKR) Q3 net interest income be above $1.1B?Yes8065¢65¢$52$0$0
Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market close on IPO day?Yes1,08015.5¢4.8¢$51−$116$0
Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) beat quarterly earnings?No10043¢46¢$46+$3.00$0
Will Citigroup (C) beat quarterly earnings?No20013¢10.5¢$21−$5.00$0
Base iPhone 18 released by April 30, 2027?Yes2076¢74.5¢$15−$0.30$0
Will Prologis (PLD) Q3 core FFO per diluted share be above $1.60?Yes4032¢36.5¢$15+$1.80$0
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Yes10023¢14.5¢$15−$8.50$0
Will BlackRock (BLK) Q3 quarterly total net inflows be above $150B?Yes2065¢70¢$14+$1.00$0
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?Yes11053.2¢12.5¢$14−$45$0
Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1%?Yes17323¢7.8¢$13−$26$0
Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day?Yes5140¢2.6¢$13+$13$0
Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market close on IPO day?Yes6000¢1.6¢$9.60+$9.60$0
United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 84% to 85%?Yes2026¢33.5¢$6.70+$1.50$0
Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.3%?Yes7220.8¢8¢$5.73−$9.26$0
Will Oura's market cap be between $17.5B and $20B at market close on IPO day?Yes1,03614.5¢0.5¢$4.66−$145$0
Will Meta’s market capitalization be between $2.00T and $2.25T at the end of October 2026?Yes2035.6¢20.5¢$4.09−$3.03$0
Will Meta’s market capitalization be at least $2.25T at the end of October 2026?Yes8211.3¢4.7¢$3.86−$5.46$0
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Yes31059.4¢0.5¢$1.40−$183$0
Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?Yes31267.4¢0.1¢$0.16−$210$0
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026No3,10071.7¢0¢$0−$2,223−$2.61
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be below 1%?Yes1,60315¢0¢$0−$240+$19
Will Casey's General Stores (CASY) beat quarterly earnings?No1,22528.6¢0¢$0−$351−$22
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between -1.5% and 0%?Yes76032.9¢0¢$0−$250−$6.21
Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q2 2026Yes75315.5¢0¢$0−$117−$3.93
Will IonQ (IONQ) beat quarterly earnings?Yes6308¢0¢$0−$50−$2.32
Will Eli Lilly (LLY) beat quarterly earnings?No59622.1¢0¢$0−$132−$5.06
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026Yes55911.1¢0¢$0−$62−$2.18
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026Yes52941.8¢0¢$0−$221−$41
Will Warby Parker (WRBY) beat quarterly earnings?Yes51732.6¢0¢$0−$169−$4.00
Intel (INTC) Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) 38%-40%?Yes4874.2¢0¢$0−$20−$0.78
CVS Health (CVS) Q2 medical benefit ratio (MBR) <87.5%?No46942.2¢0¢$0−$198−$4.57
Will IMAX (IMAX) beat quarterly earnings?No40925.8¢0¢$0−$106−$3.89
Will no one dissent the September Fed decision?No40065.1¢0¢$0−$260$0
Will four or more people dissent the July Fed decision?Yes32312.2¢0¢$0−$39−$1.71
Coca-Cola (KO) Q2 organic revenue (non-GAAP) growth 3.5%-5%?Yes31928.7¢0¢$0−$91−$0.98
Will Roblox (RBLX) beat quarterly earnings?No31414.9¢0¢$0−$47−$1.97
Will Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) beat quarterly earnings?Yes30415.2¢0¢$0−$46−$1.89
Walmart (WMT) Q2 US eCommerce sales growth 25%-29%?Yes30054.8¢0¢$0−$164−$2.97
Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q3 2026No2985.4¢0¢$0−$16−$0.61
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16?Yes29042.8¢0¢$0−$124+$0.25
Microsoft (MSFT) Q4 Azure revenue growth (constant currency) 40%-42%?Yes28454.2¢0¢$0−$154−$2.82
Will Dollar Tree Q1 comparable store net sales growth be below 3%?Yes27411.5¢0¢$0−$32−$0.93
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes26024.5¢0¢$0−$64+$0.37
Will Palo Alto Networks Q3 Next-Generation Security ARR be above $8.5B?Yes2376.3¢0¢$0−$15−$4.87
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?Yes2308.6¢0¢$0−$20−$0.06
Procter & Gamble (PG) Q4 organic sales growth 1.5%-2.5%?Yes21659.9¢0¢$0−$130−$1.67
Procter & Gamble (PG) Q4 organic sales growth 0.5%-1.5%?Yes21618.9¢0¢$0−$41−$0.79
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $30B?No20752.3¢0¢$0−$108−$2.03
Walmart (WMT) Q2 US comp sales (ex-fuel) growth 3%-4.5%?Yes20077¢0¢$0−$154−$0.86
Will Time 2025 Person of the Year be leaked?No19866¢0¢$0−$131$0
Will Paramount Skydance (PSKY) beat quarterly earnings?Yes19434¢0¢$0−$66−$2.18
Will Walmart (WMT) beat quarterly earnings?No18014¢0¢$0−$25−$1.03
Ethereum Up or Down - September 29, 10AM ETDown17756.5¢0¢$0−$100$0
Grok 4.20 released by January 15?Yes15880.9¢0¢$0−$128$0
Danaher (DHR) Q2 non-GAAP core revenue growth 1.5%-3%?Yes15741.3¢0¢$0−$65−$1.52
Will three people dissent the September Fed decision?Yes15013¢0¢$0−$20$0
Will four or more people dissent the September Fed decision?Yes15027.7¢0¢$0−$41−$1.50
Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5Under15031¢0¢$0−$47−$0.96
Coca-Cola (KO) Q2 global unit case volume growth <3.5%?Yes14559.1¢0¢$0−$86−$0.42
Will Five Below Q1 comparable sales growth be between 17.5% and 20%?Yes14335.1¢0¢$0−$50−$1.29
CVS Health (CVS) Q2 medical benefit ratio (MBR) 89%-90.5%?Yes13811.8¢0¢$0−$16−$0.55
Will DoorDash (DASH) beat quarterly earnings?Yes13122.9¢0¢$0−$30−$1.15
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during September press conference?Yes13130.6¢0¢$0−$40$0
Will Akamai Techs (AKAM) beat quarterly earnings?No13020¢0¢$0−$26−$1.04
McDonald's (MCD) Q2 global comparable sales growth 1.5%-2.5%?Yes13035¢0¢$0−$46−$1.18
Will Expedia Group (EXPE) beat quarterly earnings?No12017¢0¢$0−$20−$0.85
Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026?Yes12021¢0¢$0−$25$0
Will Roku (ROKU) beat quarterly earnings?No12012¢0¢$0−$14−$0.63
Netflix (NFLX) Q2 operating margin 30%-32%?Yes11523.9¢0¢$0−$28−$0.84
Will Pinterest (PINS) beat quarterly earnings?No11333.4¢0¢$0−$38−$1.26
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.35B?No11282¢0¢$0−$92−$82

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill JP Morgan (JPM) Q3 investment banking fees be above $3.05B?56¢20$1177%63
BUY YesWill BlackRock (BLK) Q3 quarterly total net inflows be above $150B?65¢20$1377%63
BUY YesWill Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 Innovative Medicine revenue be above $16.6B?63¢100$6377%63
BUY YesTaiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 68% to 69%?25¢100$2577%63
BUY YesWill Prologis (PLD) Q3 core FFO per diluted share be above $1.55?55¢20$1177%63
BUY YesTaiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 68% to 69%?24¢62$1577%63
BUY YesTaiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 67% to 68%?40¢50$2077%63
BUY YesTaiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 68% to 69%?24¢200$4877%63
BUY YesTaiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 67% to 68%?40¢200$8077%63
BUY YesWill Prologis (PLD) Q3 core FFO per diluted share be above $1.55?45.9¢47$2177%63
BUY YesTaiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 67% to 68%?43¢57$2577%63
BUY YesTaiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 66% to 67%?30.8¢57$1877%63
BUY NoWill Citigroup (C) beat quarterly earnings?13¢200$2677%63
BUY YesWill Prologis (PLD) Q3 core FFO per diluted share be above $1.55?61.4¢138$8577%63
BUY YesWill JP Morgan (JPM) Q3 investment banking fees be above $3.05B?55.2¢100$5577%63
BUY NoWill Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings?48¢100$4877%63
BUY NoWill Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings?47¢5$2.3577%63
BUY YesTaiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 67% to 68%?43¢150$6577%63
BUY YesTaiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 66% to 67%?26¢150$3977%63
BUY YesIntuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%?30¢55$1777%63