sharpside
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DualDelta

0x154…baaf
PnL 10k+SportPoliticsOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$40.9kvol $2.27M
PnL 30d−$6,071gains $3,766 · losses $2,578
PnL 7d−$587win rate 7d 80.0%
Win rate45.5%adj 45.7% · 30d 66.7%
Open value$14.2kcash n/a
Positions46 / 355open / all-time
Max drawdown−32.4%of equity peak
Account age8molast trade 10h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$37.4kbelow peak −$11.7kOct 12

SharpScore inputs

59/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale66
Adjusted win rateraw 45.5% · shrunk toward 50%14
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable85
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity68

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 46

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes5,06859¢62.5¢$3,168+$177$0
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?No3,40241¢84¢$2,858+$1,462+$167
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?Yes11.3k42.6¢12.5¢$1,413−$3,403$0
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Yes15.4k20.1¢7¢$1,079−$2,015+$67
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?Yes4,47023.7¢14.5¢$648−$411$0
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Yes4,00020¢15.5¢$620−$180$0
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes33.8k2.4¢1.8¢$592−$220$0
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?Yes1,13233¢45¢$509+$136$0
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?Yes8,2489¢6.2¢$507−$237+$27
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Yes2,21418.4¢14.5¢$321−$86$0
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Yes1,97229.8¢15.5¢$306−$281+$95
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes10.0k1.4¢3.1¢$305+$165$0
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?Yes82635.4¢35.5¢$293+$1.16$0
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Yes9,00011¢3.3¢$293−$698$0
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?Yes4,73913.3¢5.1¢$242−$390+$156
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?Yes11.9k4.7¢1.8¢$209−$352$0
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?Yes3,40918.7¢4.5¢$153−$485$0
Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by December 31, 2026?Yes1,21611.5¢11¢$134−$6.65$0
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Yes22640¢56.5¢$128+$37$0
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?Yes3,2426¢3.9¢$126−$68$0
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes12.8k4.6¢0.6¢$77−$510$0
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?Yes2,4745¢2.9¢$71−$53$0
Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI?Yes37529.4¢13.5¢$51−$60$0
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Yes1,2082.2¢3.3¢$40+$13$0
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes6118¢6.4¢$39−$9.78$0
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?Yes6,09615.5¢0.3¢$18−$927$0
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes2,14114.6¢0.9¢$18−$294$0
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?Yes73917.6¢2.4¢$18−$112$0
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes9,5455¢0.1¢$9.54−$468$0
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes75.0k1.8¢0¢$0−$1,375−$40
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes50.0k1.7¢0¢$0−$850−$25
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?Yes15.1k8.8¢0¢$0−$1,325−$48
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes10,0005¢0¢$0−$496+$1.47
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?No5,00010¢0¢$0−$500−$14
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?Yes4,35316.2¢0¢$0−$706−$18
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of summit?Yes3,9452.2¢0¢$0−$86−$1.85
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?No3,79618.8¢0¢$0−$713−$23
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?Yes3,13626¢0¢$0−$815−$24
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes2,7623.8¢0¢$0−$105−$2.18
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Yes2,1086¢0¢$0−$127−$2.95
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?No1,8547¢0¢$0−$130−$4.83
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Yes1,0236¢0¢$0−$61−$1.89
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?No1,00012.9¢0¢$0−$129−$1.89
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 15, 2026?No1,00014.8¢0¢$0−$148−$1.83
Norway vs. England: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under90431.9¢0¢$0−$288−$5.86
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Norway?Yes7559.8¢0¢$0−$74−$0.69

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?88¢130$11446%59
SELL YesWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?63¢315$19846%59
SELL NoWill OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?74¢157$11646%59
SELL NoWill Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?22.2¢3,576$79546%59
SELL YesWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?2.2¢14.1k$30646%59
SELL NoWill OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?89¢117$10446%59
BUY YesWill OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?20¢4,000$80046%59
BUY YesWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?2.2¢1,208$2746%59
SELL YesWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?17.7¢5,318$94146%59
BUY YesTrump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of summit?2.4¢2,015$4746%59
BUY YesWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?27¢550$14946%59
BUY YesWill the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?59¢3,068$1,81046%59
BUY YesWill Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?8¢611$4946%59
BUY YesOpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?20¢698$14046%59
BUY YesU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?18.5¢1,552$28846%59
BUY YesU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?18.7¢659$12346%59
SELL YesWill OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?3¢3,570$10746%59
BUY NoWill Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?12¢1,186$14246%59
BUY YesWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?17.6¢154$2746%59
SELL YesWill OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?19¢9,642$1,83246%59