Traders/Rank #3,718

blub.0

0x164…785b

WR 80+WR 70+WR 60+PoliticsOther

Polymarket

PnL all-time−$11.7kvol $339k

PnL 30d+$1,955gains $221 · losses $983

PnL 7d+$3,289win rate 7d 0.0%

Win rate84.9%adj 75.3% · 30d 25.0%

Open value$15.8kcash n/a

Positions44 / 102open / all-time

Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak

Account age6molast trade 5d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$5,309below peak −$5,689Oct 8

SharpScore inputs

32/ 100 SharpScore · v1

Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0

Adjusted win rateraw 84.9% · shrunk toward 50%88

Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable67

Recencylast trade; fades over 30d83

Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? · Yesopen+$6,560 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? · Noclosed+$208 Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in May? · Noclosed+$131 Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in May? · Noclosed+$77 US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? · Noclosed+$44

Worst markets

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yesopen−$3,021 Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yesopen−$1,710 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yesopen−$1,387 Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yesopen−$1,152 Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yesopen−$1,053

Open positions · 44

Market	Outcome		Avg entry	Now			Realized	Ends
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	18.3k	47.8¢	83.5¢	$15.2k	+$6,521	+$39	19d 22h
OpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31?	Google	200	70¢	78.5¢	$157	+$17	$0	3mo
No one announced as next James Bond?	No	158	75¢	80.6¢	$127	+$8.75	$0	3mo
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	500	29¢	22.5¢	$113	−$33	$0	3mo
Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 9?	Yes	100	47¢	63¢	$63	+$16	$0	22h 16m
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	1,000	16¢	4.9¢	$49	−$111	$0	3mo
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?	Yes	200	16¢	18.9¢	$38	+$5.80	$0	3mo
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	200	36¢	13.5¢	$27	−$45	$0	ended
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	200	20¢	8.5¢	$17	−$23	$0	22d 22h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	50	60¢	15.5¢	$7.75	−$22	$0	3mo
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	33.8k	3.4¢	0¢	$0	−$1,155	+$2.97	ended
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	33.6k	5.1¢	0¢	$0	−$1,710	$0	ended
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	20.4k	5.2¢	0¢	$0	−$1,053	$0	ended
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	16.0k	18.8¢	0¢	$0	−$3,021	$0	ended
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	6,600	11.8¢	0¢	$0	−$780	$0	ended
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6,600	19.3¢	0¢	$0	−$1,274	−$114	ended
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6,100	3¢	0¢	$0	−$185	$0	ended
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	5,000	1¢	0¢	$0	−$52	$0	ended
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	4,069	0.4¢	0¢	$0	−$18	$0	ended
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	3,000	0.2¢	0¢	$0	−$6.00	$0	ended
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	3,000	0.6¢	0¢	$0	−$17	−$0.11	ended
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1,500	38.7¢	0¢	$0	−$581	−$0.60	ended
Will the Bank of Israel cut by 50 bps or more at the August 2026 meeting?	Yes	1,000	0.1¢	0¢	$0	−$0.99	−$0.01	ended
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	0¢	$0	−$8.00	$0	ended
Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 15, 2026?	No	501	16.9¢	0¢	$0	−$85	$0	ended
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting?	No	500	0.2¢	0¢	$0	−$0.95	$0	ended
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	No	400	76.5¢	0¢	$0	−$306	$0	ended
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?	No	200	5¢	0¢	$0	−$10	$0	ended
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	195	43.7¢	0¢	$0	−$85	$0	ended
Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" in 2026?	No	190	6¢	0¢	$0	−$11	−$2.10	3mo
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?	Yes	150	26.7¢	0¢	$0	−$40	$0	ended
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of May 18 2026?	Yes	100	15¢	0¢	$0	−$15	$0	ended
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?	Yes	100	9¢	0¢	$0	−$9.00	$0	ended
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	100	32¢	0¢	$0	−$32	$0	3mo
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	100	62¢	0¢	$0	−$62	$0	ended
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	75	67¢	0¢	$0	−$50	$0	ended
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 18, 2026?	Yes	75	6¢	0¢	$0	−$4.50	$0	ended
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	75	15¢	0¢	$0	−$11	$0	ended
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?	Yes	70	2.3¢	0¢	$0	−$1.61	$0	ended
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in May?	Yes	50	23¢	0¢	$0	−$12	−$0.35	ended
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	45	30.1¢	0¢	$0	−$14	$0	ended
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	Yes	40	31¢	0¢	$0	−$12	$0	ended
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Yes	40	60¢	0¢	$0	−$24	$0	ended
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?	Yes	1	14.8¢	0¢	$0	−$0.17	$0	21d 22h

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s

Time	Side	Market	Price	Shares	Value	Trader WR	Sharp
5d ago	SELL Yes	Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?	32¢	500	$160	85%	32
8d ago	BUY Yes	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	63¢	6,000	$3,780	85%	32
18d ago	SELL No	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	39¢	5,719	$2,231	85%	32
25d ago	SELL Yes	Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in September?	26¢	652	$170	85%	32
29d ago	BUY Yes	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	16¢	1,000	$160	85%	32
30d ago	BUY No	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	0.5¢	270	$1.35	85%	32
32d ago	BUY Yes	Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?	0.6¢	233	$1.40	85%	32
33d ago	BUY No	No one announced as next James Bond?	75¢	158	$118	85%	32
33d ago	BUY Yes	Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in September?	33¢	495	$163	85%	32
38d ago	BUY Yes	Will the Bank of Israel cut by 50 bps or more at the August 2026 meeting?	0.1¢	164	$0.16	85%	32
1mo ago	BUY Yes	Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?	16¢	50	$8.00	85%	32
1mo ago	BUY Yes	Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?	16¢	150	$24	85%	32
1mo ago	BUY No	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting?	0.1¢	50	$0.05	85%	32
2mo ago	BUY Yes	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	1.4¢	5	$0.07	85%	32
2mo ago	BUY No	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	0.4¢	532	$2.13	85%	32
2mo ago	BUY Yes	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	0.4¢	9	$0.03	85%	32
2mo ago	BUY No	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	21.1¢	362	$76	85%	32
2mo ago	BUY Yes	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	39.2¢	50	$20	85%	32
3mo ago	SELL Yes	Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3.3¢	3,000	$99	85%	32
3mo ago	BUY Yes	Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3.2¢	17.6k	$563	85%	32