sharpside
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Traders/Rank #2,275

noib

0x187…5fee
WhalePnL 10k+WR 60+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$20.5kvol $1.58M
PnL 30d−$8,528gains $27.9k · losses $27.8k
PnL 7d−$5,728win rate 7d 54.2%
Win rate61.2%adj 60.0% · 30d 55.4%
Open value$44.5kcash n/a
Positions76 / 241open / all-time
Max drawdown−53.7%of equity peak
Account age4molast trade 1h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$12.0kbelow peak −$14.0kOct 8

SharpScore inputs

61/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale62
Adjusted win rateraw 61.2% · shrunk toward 50%50
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable79
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity46

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026? · Noclosed+$6,114Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? · Yesclosed+$4,853Will Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yesclosed+$4,351US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? · Yesclosed+$3,852Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15? · Noclosed+$3,777

Worst markets

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31? · Yesclosed−$4,815US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? · Yesclosed−$4,813Will Trump praise Xi Jinping in August? · Noclosed−$3,843Will Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Noclosed−$3,842US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? · Yesclosed−$3,813

Open positions · 76

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes16.9k83.4¢82.5¢$13.9k−$153−$1,012
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No8,03495.2¢94.1¢$7,560−$88−$3,516
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 15?No2,99485.5¢91.5¢$2,740+$178$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?No2,68375¢80.5¢$2,160+$147+$409
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes2,40080¢78.5¢$1,884−$36−$383
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?No6,82028.6¢27.5¢$1,876−$74$0
Nobel Peace Prize 2026 awarded to an individual?Yes3,44345.9¢53¢$1,825+$246+$11
Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes7,7111.3¢16.8¢$1,292+$1,189+$606
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?Yes2,13249.1¢57¢$1,215+$169+$260
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?Yes6,86960.3¢14¢$962−$3,182−$558
Will Mykola Kuleba win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes7,8302.8¢9.5¢$744+$529+$429
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?No1,04063.7¢67.5¢$702+$40+$29
Will Michael Woodford win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?No75685¢88¢$666+$23$0
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31?Yes2,7309.9¢13.5¢$369+$98$0
Will Hussam Abu Safiya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes11.8k1.3¢3¢$353+$196+$12
Courts block Trump's $100,000 Truth Social early access plan by October 31?No37393.6¢92.5¢$345−$4.11$0
Will the International Space Station win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes12.2k1.3¢2.3¢$280+$117$0
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes6,0052.5¢4.4¢$261+$111+$542
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?No5,7067¢4.4¢$251−$149$0
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?Yes2,3749.4¢10.5¢$249+$26−$17
Will Tito-Dante Marimpietri win the 2026 Oshawa mayoral election?No1,30536.5¢19¢$248−$229+$85
Will UNHCR win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes11.5k1.3¢2.2¢$247+$93+$72
Will Chow Hang-tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes18.5k1.5¢1.3¢$240−$30−$0.55
Will Ilham Tohti win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes12.2k1.3¢1.9¢$232+$68$0
Will Jimmy Lai win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes12.2k1.3¢1.8¢$213+$50$0
Will Doctors Without Borders win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes10.4k1.3¢2.1¢$213+$74+$17
Will the International Criminal Court win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes10.5k1.4¢1.9¢$199+$50+$4.15
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes9,1311.3¢2.1¢$192+$70+$37
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?No82135.6¢23¢$189−$103+$342
Will Anton Danko win the 2026 Poprad mayoral election?Yes21967.9¢84¢$184+$35+$82
GTA 6 launch postponed again?Yes4,18911.9¢3.9¢$161−$339$0
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?No30665.2¢51.5¢$158−$42$0
Will Committee to Protect Journalists win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes5,1641.3¢3¢$155+$86+$215
Will ICRC win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes9,9461.3¢1.5¢$144+$11+$12
Will Sara Al-Saqqa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes6,8501.3¢2¢$137+$46+$2,594
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?No39323.4¢31.5¢$124+$32$0
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Yes62413.3¢19.5¢$122+$38+$68
Will the International Peace Research Association win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes12.2k1.3¢1¢$116−$47$0
Will Reporters Without Borders win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes12.2k1.3¢1¢$116−$47$0
Will the Parents Circle – Families Forum win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes12.2k1.3¢0.9¢$110−$53$0
Will Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes12.2k1.3¢0.9¢$110−$53$0
Will World Central Kitchen win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes12.2k1.3¢0.9¢$104−$59$0
Will courts block Mamdani's grocery stores by October 31?No14464¢69¢$99+$7.19$0
Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?No9886.8¢92.5¢$91+$5.60+$259
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes12.2k1.3¢0.7¢$79−$84$0
Will Susan Athey win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?No8489¢89.5¢$76+$0.42$0
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in the United States by December 31, 2026?Yes2,67427.7¢2.7¢$71−$671+$119
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes12.2k1.3¢0.5¢$67−$96$0
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes12.2k1.3¢0.5¢$67−$96$0
Will Mark Carney win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes8,2901.3¢0.8¢$62−$49+$13
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes12.2k1.3¢0.5¢$61−$102$0
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?No38412.7¢14.5¢$56+$6.83+$1.13
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Yes9655.2¢57¢$55+$1.68$0
Will the International Association of Judges win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes12.2k1.3¢0.4¢$49−$114$0
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes12.2k1.3¢0.4¢$49−$114$0
Will Steven Del Duca win the 2026 Vaughan mayoral election?Yes4885.7¢97¢$47+$5.42+$9.48
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?No5260.1¢71¢$37+$5.64$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?No15.2k8.3¢0.2¢$30−$1,236$0
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes12.2k1.3¢0.3¢$30−$133$0
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes12.2k1.3¢0.3¢$30−$133$0
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?Yes10428¢23¢$24−$5.16+$61
Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by September 30, 2026?Yes36063.3¢4.4¢$16−$212$0
Will Yad Vashem win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes12.2k1.3¢0.1¢$6.09−$157$0
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes12.2k1.3¢0.1¢$6.09−$157$0
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes12.2k1.3¢0.1¢$6.09−$157$0
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes12.2k1.3¢0.1¢$6.09−$157$0
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes12.2k1.3¢0.1¢$6.09−$157$0
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes12.2k1.3¢0.1¢$6.09−$157$0
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes12.2k1.3¢0.1¢$6.09−$157$0
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes12.2k1.3¢0.1¢$6.09−$157$0
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes12.2k1.3¢0.1¢$6.09−$157$0
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes12.2k1.3¢0.1¢$6.09−$157$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?No2507¢1.5¢$3.62−$14$0
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?No371¢76.5¢$2.20+$0.16$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 5?No4,0003.1¢0.1¢$2.00−$122$0
Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 7, 2026?Yes1018.2¢0¢$0−$8.29+$9.23

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?8¢457$3761%61
BUY NoIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?28.6¢6,820$1,95061%61
BUY NoWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 15?85.5¢2,994$2,56161%61
SELL YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?86¢2,045$1,75861%61
SELL NoIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?66.7¢772$51561%61
SELL NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?5¢4,662$23461%61
BUY YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?84¢11.9k$10.0k61%61Whale
SELL YesWill UNHCR win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?2.5¢541$1461%61
BUY YesWill the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?3.4¢2,763$9561%61
SELL NoIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?48¢138$6661%61
BUY NoIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?61.4¢327$20161%61
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?55.2¢96$5361%61
BUY NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?7¢5,706$40061%61
SELL NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?29.9¢3,450$1,03361%61
BUY YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?83¢728$60461%61
BUY NoWill Michael Woodford win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?85¢723$61561%61
SELL NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?11.1¢14.0k$1,55361%61
BUY YesNobel Peace Prize 2026 awarded to an individual?45.9¢3,541$1,62461%61
SELL YesWill Hussam Abu Safiya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?3.8¢51$1.9361%61
BUY YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?82¢2,439$2,00061%61