sharpside
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Traders/Rank #2,384

HerlihyM92

0x197…398d
WhalePnL 10k+1y+PoliticsCultureSport
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$39.2kvol $1.22M
PnL 30d+$816gains $423 · losses $359
PnL 7d+$175win rate 7d 66.7%
Win rate56.5%adj 56.3% · 30d 66.7%
Open value$29.5kcash n/a
Positions49 / 550open / all-time
Max drawdown−21.6%of equity peak
Account age2.1ylast trade 4d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$40.0kbelow peak −$1,012Oct 13

SharpScore inputs

67/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale66
Adjusted win rateraw 56.5% · shrunk toward 50%41
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable91
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d86
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity78

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 49

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes11.7k92.5¢96.1¢$11.3k+$416$0
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes5,79966.4¢72.5¢$4,204+$351$0
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?No3,80031¢40.5¢$1,539+$360$0
Manchester City punishment announced by October 23?No1,33191.2¢99.5¢$1,324+$110$0
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?No1,07178.8¢97.7¢$1,046+$202$0
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes1,40021.9¢71.5¢$1,000+$693$0
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?Yes1,20079¢78.5¢$942−$6.00$0
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?No1,20066¢73¢$876+$84$0
Will Sligo Rovers be relegated from the 2026 League of Ireland Premier Division?Yes88095.2¢97.9¢$861+$23$0
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes2,0006¢41.9¢$837+$717$0
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?No1,00079¢79.5¢$795+$5.00$0
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?No80088¢95.5¢$764+$60$0
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes1,71037.6¢41.5¢$710+$67$0
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes1,40047.7¢48.4¢$678+$9.90$0
X banned in any European country by December 31?No58276.8¢86¢$501+$54$0
Will Shelbourne be relegated from the 2026 League of Ireland Premier Division?No23789.8¢97.8¢$232+$19$0
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseYes80040¢28.5¢$228−$92−$784
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes7,5001.9¢2.5¢$184+$45$0
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No20078¢90.5¢$181+$25$0
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes72754.8¢24.5¢$178−$221−$346
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?No15078¢97.1¢$146+$29$0
Manchester City punishment announced by December 18?No18047.3¢79.5¢$143+$58$0
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes23.2k8.2¢0.5¢$128−$1,777$0
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes22.0k0.8¢0.5¢$121−$55$0
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?No12082¢97.1¢$117+$18−$554
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes90035.8¢12.5¢$113−$209$0
Manchester City punishment announced by December 4?No10057¢86.5¢$87+$30$0
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes11.0k2.1¢0.7¢$71−$159$0
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes5,0003.3¢1.2¢$57−$108$0
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes3,1252¢1.4¢$42−$21$0
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes2,4003.1¢1.6¢$38−$37$0
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes22915¢12.5¢$29−$5.72$0
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?Yes40013¢6.5¢$26−$26$0
Will Waterford be relegated from the 2026 League of Ireland Premier Division?No2046¢78¢$16+$6.40$0
Will Spain participate in Eurovision 2027?No1120¢96.7¢$10+$8.21$0
Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026?Yes766¢94.2¢$7.06+$2.11$0
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes2,0001.4¢0.4¢$7.00−$21$0
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Yes45021¢1.2¢$5.40−$89$0
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota governor race in 2026?Yes574.8¢95.5¢$5.01+$1.08+$115
Will the Republicans win the Minnesota governor race in 2026?No375¢94.9¢$2.99+$0.63+$57
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No192.9¢97.8¢$1.05+$0.05+$759
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 AL West title?Yes1,43651.5¢0¢$0−$740−$120
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes60067¢0¢$0−$402$0
Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 30,000-40,000?No45027¢0¢$0−$122$0
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?No25068¢0¢$0−$170$0
Will “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding limited or anthology series?Yes2004.5¢0¢$0−$9.03−$0.43
Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 20,000-30,000?Yes15531.9¢0¢$0−$49−$1.35
Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Yes15017¢0¢$0−$26−$0.85
Will Paul W. Downs – “Hacks” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a comedy series?Yes907.3¢0¢$0−$6.57$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoManchester City punishment announced by October 23?91.8¢1,077$98857%67
BUY NoWill Shelbourne be relegated from the 2026 League of Ireland Premier Division?89.8¢237$21357%67
BUY NoWill Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?98.8¢14.8k$14.7k57%67Whale
BUY NoWill Waterford be relegated from the 2026 League of Ireland Premier Division?46¢20$9.2057%67
BUY YesWill Sligo Rovers be relegated from the 2026 League of Ireland Premier Division?99¢81$8057%67
BUY NoManchester City punishment announced by December 4?57¢100$5757%67
BUY NoManchester City punishment announced by October 23?88.5¢234$20757%67
BUY NoManchester City punishment announced by October 9?92.5¢219$20257%67
BUY NoManchester City punishment announced by December 18?47.3¢180$8557%67
BUY YesWill Sligo Rovers be relegated from the 2026 League of Ireland Premier Division?96.3¢307$29557%67
BUY YesWill Sligo Rovers be relegated from the 2026 League of Ireland Premier Division?97.6¢89$8757%67
BUY YesWill Sligo Rovers be relegated from the 2026 League of Ireland Premier Division?93.1¢404$37657%67
BUY YesWill “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding limited or anthology series?4.5¢200$9.0357%67
BUY NoNick Fuentes and Sophie Rain confirmed relationship by September 30?99.1¢93$9257%67
BUY YesWill the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 20,000-30,000?29¢5$1.4557%67
BUY YesWill the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 20,000-30,000?32¢150$4857%67
SELL YesWill Seattle Mariners win the 2026 AL West title?24¢200$4857%67
BUY NoWill James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?96.8¢39$3757%67
BUY YesWill Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?93.7¢35$3357%67
BUY YesWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?27¢70$1957%67