| Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | No | 24.2k | 79.5¢ | 81.8¢ | $19.8k | +$565 | +$689 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | No | 22.2k | 60.7¢ | 84.5¢ | $18.7k | +$5,288 | +$12.3k | |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | No | 24.8k | 21.3¢ | 20.5¢ | $5,093 | −$211 | −$376 | |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 4,825 | 68.5¢ | 86.5¢ | $4,173 | +$867 | +$1,753 | |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | No | 17.8k | 45.5¢ | 16.5¢ | $2,932 | −$5,159 | +$13.2k | |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 2,988 | 35.6¢ | 95.6¢ | $2,855 | +$1,790 | +$1,358 | |
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 2,969 | 73.3¢ | 96.1¢ | $2,853 | +$677 | +$99 | |
| Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? | No | 2,970 | 81.6¢ | 81.5¢ | $2,420 | −$4.16 | −$1.28 | |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 2,456 | 83.2¢ | 90.5¢ | $2,223 | +$179 | +$279 | |
| No one announced as next James Bond? | No | 2,730 | 77.8¢ | 80.6¢ | $2,199 | +$75 | −$26 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 2,130 | 91¢ | 96.7¢ | $2,060 | +$121 | −$37 | |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? | No | 2,653 | 54.1¢ | 77.5¢ | $2,056 | +$621 | +$3,489 | |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | No | 3,388 | 73.8¢ | 60.5¢ | $2,048 | −$452 | −$164 | |
| Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31? | No | 1,996 | 97.2¢ | 97.6¢ | $1,947 | +$6.99 | −$18 | |
| Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? | No | 2,320 | 85¢ | 81.5¢ | $1,891 | −$81 | $0 | |
| Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | No | 2,098 | 78.8¢ | 79.3¢ | $1,664 | +$10 | −$7.50 | |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 1,613 | 98.9¢ | 98.3¢ | $1,586 | −$9.09 | −$71 | |
| Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? | No | 1,848 | 85¢ | 84.5¢ | $1,562 | −$9.77 | −$2.06 | |
| Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? | No | 1,928 | 78.7¢ | 77.5¢ | $1,494 | −$24 | $0 | |
| Will NuScale announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? | No | 1,794 | 85.3¢ | 80.5¢ | $1,444 | −$87 | $0 | |
| Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? | No | 1,613 | 88¢ | 89.5¢ | $1,444 | +$25 | +$20 | |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? | No | 1,460 | 42¢ | 97.4¢ | $1,421 | +$808 | +$22 | |
| Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 9,307 | 39.7¢ | 14.5¢ | $1,349 | −$2,342 | −$62 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 2,000 | 66¢ | 66.5¢ | $1,330 | +$10 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | No | 2,210 | 60.9¢ | 56¢ | $1,238 | −$108 | −$57 | |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 6,191 | 20.8¢ | 19.9¢ | $1,229 | −$57 | +$953 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | No | 2,018 | 48.2¢ | 58.5¢ | $1,181 | +$208 | +$53 | |
| Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 7,070 | 31.3¢ | 16.5¢ | $1,167 | −$1,046 | −$149 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? | No | 5,904 | 19.1¢ | 18.5¢ | $1,092 | −$37 | −$0.12 | |
| Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? | No | 1,221 | 85¢ | 87.5¢ | $1,068 | +$31 | +$1.13 | |
| Will NuScale announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? | No | 1,366 | 79.8¢ | 75.5¢ | $1,031 | −$59 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? | No | 1,250 | 79.8¢ | 78.5¢ | $981 | −$16 | −$51 | |
| Will NuScale announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? | No | 1,096 | 92¢ | 89.5¢ | $981 | −$27 | −$66 | |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | No | 1,004 | 58.8¢ | 96.2¢ | $965 | +$375 | +$37 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | No | 1,015 | 83.9¢ | 94.5¢ | $959 | +$107 | +$13 | |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 902 | 79.7¢ | 97.9¢ | $882 | +$164 | +$1,005 | |
| House favorite on November 2 wins the election? | Yes | 937 | 93¢ | 93.5¢ | $876 | +$4.69 | −$1.00 | |
| Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 5,793 | 33¢ | 14.5¢ | $840 | −$1,072 | −$441 | |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | No | 1,210 | 54.4¢ | 63.5¢ | $768 | +$111 | −$12 | |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 1,115 | 62.6¢ | 64.5¢ | $719 | +$21 | −$26 | |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 4,824 | 39¢ | 14.9¢ | $716 | −$1,166 | −$596 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 2,000 | 35¢ | 34.5¢ | $690 | −$10.00 | $0 | |
| Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 4,135 | 37.9¢ | 16.5¢ | $682 | −$885 | −$1,023 | |
| Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 1,356 | 49¢ | 49.5¢ | $671 | +$6.53 | +$3.83 | |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | No | 1,365 | 58.5¢ | 47.5¢ | $648 | −$150 | −$600 | |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 1,412 | 45¢ | 43.8¢ | $618 | −$18 | −$154 | |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? | No | 803 | 87.3¢ | 75¢ | $602 | −$98 | −$240 | |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 609 | 96.7¢ | 98¢ | $597 | +$7.40 | $0 | |
| Will Jynxzi, Ron, and Los have between 90 and 119 Minecraft deaths during the marathon? | No | 621 | 50.8¢ | 94.9¢ | $589 | +$274 | +$148 | |
| Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? | No | 716 | 85.9¢ | 81.5¢ | $583 | −$31 | −$116 | |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 903 | 62.1¢ | 64.5¢ | $582 | +$22 | −$113 | |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | Yes | 902 | 54.7¢ | 63.5¢ | $573 | +$79 | +$9.79 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 10.1k | 19.2¢ | 5.5¢ | $555 | −$1,387 | −$1,501 | |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 1,548 | 37.6¢ | 35.5¢ | $550 | −$32 | +$25 | |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | No | 1,083 | 50.8¢ | 50.5¢ | $547 | −$3.67 | −$24 | |
| Will Euphoria be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year? | No | 721 | 83.5¢ | 73.4¢ | $529 | −$73 | −$11 | |
| Will Mark Warner vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? | No | 558 | 93.2¢ | 93.1¢ | $519 | −$0.76 | −$4.17 | |
| Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | No | 2,205 | 25¢ | 23.5¢ | $518 | −$33 | −$14 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | No | 846 | 57.9¢ | 57.5¢ | $486 | −$3.69 | −$86 | |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? | No | 1,267 | 40¢ | 38¢ | $481 | −$25 | −$89 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | 500 | 65¢ | 96.2¢ | $481 | +$156 | $0 | |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | Yes | 9,697 | 22.1¢ | 4.9¢ | $475 | −$1,671 | +$189 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? | No | 460 | 82¢ | 97¢ | $446 | +$69 | +$6.28 | |
| Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? | No | 463 | 76¢ | 95.5¢ | $442 | +$90 | $0 | |
| Will Matt Damon win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 525 | 72.2¢ | 81¢ | $425 | +$46 | $0 | |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | 602 | 60.9¢ | 70.5¢ | $424 | +$58 | +$108 | |
| Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? | No | 452 | 78.4¢ | 93.8¢ | $424 | +$69 | −$56 | |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | 465 | 83.6¢ | 89.5¢ | $416 | +$27 | +$6.28 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | No | 572 | 64¢ | 71.5¢ | $409 | +$43 | −$51 | |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 1,115 | 35.7¢ | 36.5¢ | $407 | +$8.59 | −$40 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 447 | 47.1¢ | 90.5¢ | $405 | +$194 | −$1,370 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | No | 628 | 65.2¢ | 62.5¢ | $392 | −$17 | −$0.71 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | No | 1,601 | 26.4¢ | 24.5¢ | $392 | −$31 | +$3,607 | |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 403 | 71.9¢ | 97.2¢ | $392 | +$102 | +$19 | |
| Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026? | No | 486 | 78.9¢ | 79.5¢ | $386 | +$3.09 | −$0.46 | |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? | No | 536 | 71.3¢ | 71.5¢ | $383 | +$0.85 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027? | No | 389 | 63¢ | 98.3¢ | $382 | +$137 | +$38 | |
| Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? | No | 380 | 70.2¢ | 99.9¢ | $380 | +$113 | −$69 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | No | 886 | 30.9¢ | 42.5¢ | $377 | +$103 | −$29 | |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 514 | 55.7¢ | 71.4¢ | $367 | +$80 | +$1,520 | |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%? | No | 400 | 85.9¢ | 85.8¢ | $343 | −$0.80 | $0 | |
| Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 2,275 | 19¢ | 14.5¢ | $330 | −$103 | −$16 | |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,426 | 31.3¢ | 22.5¢ | $321 | −$125 | −$480 | |
| Will there be no Meta Watermelon model release by October 31, 2026? | No | 404 | 73.7¢ | 76.5¢ | $309 | +$11 | $0 | |
| Will Chang San-cheng win the next Taoyuan Mayor election? | Yes | 332 | 92.9¢ | 91.5¢ | $304 | −$4.57 | −$3.11 | |
| Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | Yes | 345 | 83.6¢ | 87.5¢ | $302 | +$14 | +$85 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | 320 | 82.9¢ | 91.5¢ | $293 | +$28 | −$66 | |
| Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31? | Yes | 1,379 | 45.2¢ | 21.1¢ | $291 | −$332 | −$85 | |
| Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia? | No | 423 | 72.8¢ | 68.5¢ | $290 | −$18 | +$100 | |
| Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026? | No | 281 | 94.8¢ | 98.6¢ | $277 | +$11 | +$86 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026? | No | 281 | 95.8¢ | 98.4¢ | $277 | +$7.31 | +$0.49 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | No | 946 | 22.2¢ | 29¢ | $274 | +$64 | −$140 | |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 1,498 | 13¢ | 18¢ | $269 | +$75 | +$192 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine governor race in 2026? | No | 280 | 92¢ | 95.3¢ | $267 | +$9.24 | +$0.44 | |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | No | 322 | 69.3¢ | 81.5¢ | $263 | +$39 | +$6.10 | |
| Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election? | No | 275 | 45¢ | 95.3¢ | $262 | +$138 | −$7.66 | |
| Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement? | No | 334 | 62¢ | 78.3¢ | $262 | +$54 | +$5.20 | |
| Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 4,699 | 10¢ | 5.5¢ | $258 | −$211 | −$29 | |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? | No | 285 | 67.8¢ | 85.5¢ | $244 | +$50 | +$16 | |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%? | No | 416 | 57.5¢ | 58.5¢ | $243 | +$4.17 | $0 | |