| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | No | 4,628 | 72.5¢ | 88.5¢ | $4,096 | +$741 | +$696 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 2,532 | 66.5¢ | 67¢ | $1,697 | +$14 | +$4.27 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,763 | 81.2¢ | 83¢ | $1,464 | +$31 | −$466 | |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | No | 1,150 | 96.4¢ | 99.3¢ | $1,141 | +$32 | $0 | |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026? | No | 917 | 92.1¢ | 98.5¢ | $903 | +$58 | $0 | |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | No | 3,982 | 17.5¢ | 17.5¢ | $697 | +$1.47 | +$23 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026? | No | 772 | 88.7¢ | 90¢ | $694 | +$10 | −$98 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027? | No | 865 | 76¢ | 76.5¢ | $662 | +$4.66 | −$216 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by April 30, 2027? | No | 1,000 | 60¢ | 60.5¢ | $605 | +$5.00 | $0 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027? | Yes | 1,150 | 47.3¢ | 47.5¢ | $546 | +$1.73 | $0 | |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | No | 568 | 91.4¢ | 93.5¢ | $531 | +$12 | −$46 | |
| SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? | No | 548 | 94.6¢ | 94.2¢ | $516 | −$2.03 | −$226 | |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | No | 550 | 79.3¢ | 91.5¢ | $504 | +$67 | −$201 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 589 | 83.6¢ | 82.5¢ | $486 | −$6.39 | −$7,006 | |
| Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2027? | No | 1,111 | 60.6¢ | 34.5¢ | $383 | −$290 | −$41 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2027? | No | 1,000 | 35¢ | 36¢ | $360 | +$10 | $0 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2027? | No | 1,021 | 33¢ | 33¢ | $337 | +$0.21 | $0 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 5,730 | 15.8¢ | 5.5¢ | $315 | −$590 | −$895 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027? | Yes | 919 | 36¢ | 32.5¢ | $299 | −$32 | −$65 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027? | No | 583 | 45¢ | 49.5¢ | $288 | +$26 | +$138 | |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | No | 251 | 97.6¢ | 99.9¢ | $251 | +$5.73 | $0 | |
| Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | No | 200 | 98.5¢ | 99.8¢ | $200 | +$2.40 | $0 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by September 30, 2027? | Yes | 193 | 62¢ | 62¢ | $120 | $0 | −$0.18 | |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 105 | 88.8¢ | 96.4¢ | $101 | +$7.88 | +$16 | |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 94 | 79.8¢ | 95.7¢ | $90 | +$15 | +$13 | |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | Yes | 216 | 36¢ | 41.5¢ | $90 | +$12 | −$83 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | 554 | 23.1¢ | 14.5¢ | $80 | −$47 | +$222 | |
| US x Cuba military clash in 2026? | No | 77 | 84¢ | 83.5¢ | $64 | −$0.39 | −$47 | |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | No | 67 | 75.3¢ | 93.5¢ | $62 | +$12 | +$34 | |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by December 31? | No | 69 | 83.5¢ | 84.5¢ | $59 | +$0.72 | −$66 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2027? | Yes | 94 | 58¢ | 58¢ | $55 | $0 | $0 | |
| Will Netanyahu be pardoned by December 31? | Yes | 459 | 23.7¢ | 10.5¢ | $48 | −$60 | +$178 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | Yes | 749 | 23.2¢ | 5.5¢ | $41 | −$133 | +$502 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 874 | 7.9¢ | 4.5¢ | $39 | −$30 | +$1,857 | |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? | Yes | 207 | 15.2¢ | 18.7¢ | $39 | +$7.26 | $0 | |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | Yes | 2,157 | 6.9¢ | 1.8¢ | $38 | −$110 | $0 | |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? | Yes | 198 | 25.7¢ | 18.5¢ | $37 | −$14 | +$383 | |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes | 615 | 15¢ | 5.5¢ | $34 | −$58 | $0 | |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31? | No | 28 | 89¢ | 95.5¢ | $27 | +$1.81 | −$2.17 | |
| Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo | Yes | 695 | 4.1¢ | 3.8¢ | $26 | −$1.84 | +$1,210 | |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | Yes | 224 | 15.4¢ | 11¢ | $25 | −$9.91 | −$509 | |
| Will Trump be impeached by June 30, 2027? | No | 36 | 83¢ | 52.5¢ | $19 | −$11 | −$3.96 | |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 127 | 23.4¢ | 14.5¢ | $18 | −$11 | −$4.82 | |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | 174 | 11¢ | 10.5¢ | $18 | −$0.87 | +$815 | |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 234 | 7.6¢ | 6.5¢ | $15 | −$2.49 | $0 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027? | No | 21 | 62.9¢ | 73.5¢ | $15 | +$2.18 | +$58 | |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Yes | 111 | 14¢ | 11¢ | $12 | −$3.32 | +$513 | |
| US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 89 | 18¢ | 12¢ | $11 | −$5.33 | +$0.63 | |
| Iran leadership change by October 31? | Yes | 741 | 10¢ | 1.4¢ | $10 | −$64 | −$19 | |
| Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? | No | 10 | 87.6¢ | 99.4¢ | $10 | +$1.21 | −$1.24 | |
| Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? | Yes | 431 | 7¢ | 2.4¢ | $10 | −$20 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1,453 | 1.4¢ | 0.5¢ | $7.99 | −$12 | +$40 | |
| Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? | No | 9 | 71.3¢ | 78.5¢ | $6.79 | +$0.62 | −$150 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Yes | 89 | 14¢ | 4.5¢ | $3.99 | −$8.43 | −$507 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | No | 3 | 63¢ | 83.5¢ | $2.56 | +$0.63 | +$41 | |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 100 | 8¢ | 1.6¢ | $1.55 | −$6.45 | $0 | |
| Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 78 | 1.6¢ | 1.9¢ | $1.45 | +$0.18 | +$320 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | No | 25.7k | 16.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$4,225 | −$5,593 | |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | No | 18.3k | 0.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$156 | −$1,099 | |
| Starmer out by June 22, 2026? | No | 13.5k | 3.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$438 | +$840 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | No | 7,717 | 15.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,179 | −$33 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | No | 5,140 | 63.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3,271 | −$921 | |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | No | 4,994 | 11.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$582 | +$1,614 | |
| Starmer out by June 23, 2026? | No | 4,354 | 7.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$315 | $0 | |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? | Yes | 4,310 | 36.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,560 | +$434 | |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | No | 4,000 | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$20 | −$593 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? | Yes | 3,915 | 2.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$106 | +$623 | |
| Netanyahu out by May 31? | Yes | 3,568 | 8.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$305 | +$18 | |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | No | 3,477 | 2.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$84 | +$941 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 2,940 | 17¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$499 | +$23 | |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026? | No | 2,753 | 57.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,594 | −$138 | |
| Starmer out by June 24, 2026? | No | 2,705 | 6.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$170 | +$314 | |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 | No | 2,355 | 62.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,481 | −$263 | |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 6? | No | 2,229 | 22.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$500 | −$2.50 | |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 8? | No | 2,220 | 20.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$454 | −$2.27 | |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1,877 | 49.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$926 | −$324 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 1,756 | 7.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$128 | +$1,672 | |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,744 | 25.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$450 | −$100 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | No | 1,740 | 53.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$932 | −$2,476 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | Yes | 1,575 | 32¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$504 | −$398 | |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? | No | 1,569 | 12¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$188 | +$21 | |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? | No | 1,547 | 10¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$155 | +$29 | |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | Yes | 1,405 | 7.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$99 | +$1,803 | |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 3? | No | 1,137 | 73.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$835 | −$334 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? | Yes | 1,054 | 1.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$20 | +$29 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1,024 | 1.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$19 | +$10 | |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? | Yes | 1,018 | 4.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$42 | +$334 | |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? | Yes | 950 | 14¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$133 | −$56 | |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 944 | 8.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$78 | +$50 | |
| Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? | No | 780 | 95.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$747 | −$1,739 | |
| Netanyahu out by April 30? | Yes | 751 | 2.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$18 | +$244 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | Yes | 622 | 1.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$9.44 | +$4,034 | |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | Yes | 599 | 13.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$80 | −$487 | |
| Netanyahu out by July 31? | Yes | 591 | 3.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$23 | +$71 | |
| Will Trump be impeached by June 30? | Yes | 574 | 3.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$20 | +$354 | |
| Trump out as President by June 30? | Yes | 553 | 1.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$6.50 | −$2.15 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027? | No | 515 | 53.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$274 | −$98 | |
| No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30? | Yes | 505 | 3.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$20 | $0 | |
| Starmer out by June 26, 2026? | No | 471 | 2.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$12 | +$718 | |
| US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by September 30? | Yes | 459 | 23.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$106 | +$1.87 | |