| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 13.4k | 53.7¢ | 86.5¢ | $11.6k | +$4,408 | +$551 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | No | 8,698 | 85.2¢ | 88.5¢ | $7,698 | +$284 | −$201 | |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | No | 8,830 | 58.4¢ | 77.5¢ | $6,843 | +$1,683 | −$32 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | No | 7,009 | 77.3¢ | 88.5¢ | $6,203 | +$783 | +$700 | |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 5,415 | 65.7¢ | 74.5¢ | $4,034 | +$476 | −$13 | |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 4,594 | 54.9¢ | 85.9¢ | $3,944 | +$1,420 | +$1,390 | |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 4,680 | 47.6¢ | 71.4¢ | $3,339 | +$1,112 | −$10 | |
| Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime? | No | 4,618 | 67¢ | 71.5¢ | $3,302 | +$208 | −$245 | |
| Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? | Yes | 14.9k | 33¢ | 19.5¢ | $2,910 | −$2,015 | $0 | |
| No one announced as next James Bond? | Yes | 14.4k | 24.9¢ | 19.5¢ | $2,799 | −$784 | +$280 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | 15.0k | 38.5¢ | 18.5¢ | $2,775 | −$3,004 | +$488 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | No | 2,704 | 66.8¢ | 100¢ | $2,702 | +$897 | −$50 | |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 2,743 | 65¢ | 97.4¢ | $2,671 | +$887 | $0 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | Yes | 2,786 | 67.7¢ | 85.5¢ | $2,382 | +$496 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | No | 4,582 | 41.8¢ | 51.7¢ | $2,369 | +$454 | +$241 | |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | No | 2,414 | 80.4¢ | 91¢ | $2,197 | +$255 | −$25 | |
| Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia? | No | 3,218 | 66.9¢ | 67¢ | $2,156 | +$4.64 | −$90 | |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 2,399 | 70.9¢ | 87.6¢ | $2,102 | +$403 | +$51 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 9,590 | 18¢ | 20.5¢ | $1,966 | +$240 | +$458 | |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | No | 2,227 | 44.1¢ | 82.5¢ | $1,838 | +$856 | $0 | |
| Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? | No | 1,827 | 86¢ | 94.5¢ | $1,727 | +$155 | +$16 | |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 3,858 | 30.9¢ | 43.8¢ | $1,690 | +$499 | $0 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | Yes | 2,381 | 60.3¢ | 65.5¢ | $1,560 | +$123 | $0 | |
| Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,626 | 57¢ | 92¢ | $1,496 | +$568 | −$12 | |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? | No | 3,922 | 49¢ | 38¢ | $1,490 | −$431 | $0 | |
| Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary? | No | 1,595 | 34.2¢ | 93.2¢ | $1,487 | +$942 | $0 | |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | No | 1,589 | 31.7¢ | 93.5¢ | $1,486 | +$983 | +$346 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | No | 3,456 | 46.5¢ | 41¢ | $1,417 | −$189 | $0 | |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 2,061 | 65¢ | 64.5¢ | $1,329 | −$10 | −$555 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | No | 2,293 | 56.5¢ | 57.5¢ | $1,318 | +$23 | +$2.51 | |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | 1,667 | 70¢ | 70.5¢ | $1,175 | +$8.33 | −$1.20 | |
| Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? | Yes | 4,652 | 14¢ | 24¢ | $1,116 | +$465 | $0 | |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 15.0k | 2.4¢ | 7.2¢ | $1,088 | +$726 | $0 | |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | 1,066 | 95.1¢ | 99.7¢ | $1,063 | +$49 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | No | 1,650 | 51.5¢ | 61.5¢ | $1,015 | +$165 | $0 | |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,209 | 52.2¢ | 83.5¢ | $1,009 | +$378 | $0 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | Yes | 2,256 | 33.5¢ | 44¢ | $993 | +$236 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1,163 | 57¢ | 75.5¢ | $878 | +$215 | $0 | |
| Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? | No | 1,221 | 48.9¢ | 63.1¢ | $770 | +$173 | +$5.06 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | No | 839 | 82.1¢ | 90.5¢ | $759 | +$70 | $0 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | Yes | 800 | 75¢ | 94.5¢ | $756 | +$156 | $0 | |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | No | 784 | 57.1¢ | 94.5¢ | $741 | +$293 | +$34 | |
| Will Jynxzi, Ron, and Los have between 60 and 89 Minecraft deaths during the marathon? | No | 698 | 57¢ | 99.6¢ | $695 | +$297 | $0 | |
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 3,437 | 0.8¢ | 19.5¢ | $670 | +$643 | +$75 | |
| Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | Yes | 1,193 | 16.2¢ | 54.8¢ | $653 | +$460 | $0 | |
| Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | No | 816 | 75.5¢ | 78.6¢ | $642 | +$26 | $0 | |
| Kash Patel out by December 31? | No | 791 | 36.8¢ | 79.5¢ | $629 | +$338 | $0 | |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | No | 1,054 | 72.2¢ | 57.5¢ | $605 | −$155 | +$854 | |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? | Yes | 3,639 | 55.3¢ | 16¢ | $582 | −$1,428 | −$17 | |
| Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? | Yes | 781 | 63¢ | 73¢ | $570 | +$78 | $0 | |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,424 | 24.5¢ | 39.5¢ | $563 | +$214 | +$77 | |
| Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? | Yes | 822 | 63.5¢ | 67.1¢ | $551 | +$29 | $0 | |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | Yes | 1,471 | 32¢ | 36.5¢ | $537 | +$66 | $0 | |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | No | 697 | 48.4¢ | 76.5¢ | $533 | +$196 | −$144 | |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | No | 1,429 | 37¢ | 36.5¢ | $522 | −$7.29 | $0 | |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | No | 829 | 54.6¢ | 62.5¢ | $518 | +$66 | −$6.73 | |
| Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | Yes | 667 | 85¢ | 77.5¢ | $517 | −$50 | $0 | |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? | Yes | 1,980 | 36.9¢ | 25¢ | $495 | −$235 | $0 | |
| Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? | Yes | 1,865 | 15.3¢ | 26.5¢ | $494 | +$208 | $0 | |
| Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | No | 943 | 56.9¢ | 49.5¢ | $467 | −$70 | −$198 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? | No | 2,463 | 19¢ | 18.5¢ | $456 | −$12 | $0 | |
| Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 3,413 | 0.8¢ | 13.2¢ | $449 | +$422 | +$7.19 | |
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? | No | 571 | 70¢ | 76.5¢ | $437 | +$37 | −$86 | |
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 3,413 | 0.8¢ | 12.5¢ | $427 | +$400 | +$17 | |
| Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? | No | 1,153 | 56.8¢ | 37¢ | $426 | −$228 | +$9.92 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027? | Yes | 619 | 70.6¢ | 68.5¢ | $424 | −$13 | $0 | |
| Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | Yes | 4,434 | 22.2¢ | 9.3¢ | $412 | −$572 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026? | Yes | 896 | 49.5¢ | 45.5¢ | $408 | −$36 | $0 | |
| Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? | Yes | 633 | 52.6¢ | 60.5¢ | $383 | +$50 | $0 | |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 753 | 43.9¢ | 48.6¢ | $365 | +$35 | +$63 | |
| Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | No | 2,873 | 14.7¢ | 12.5¢ | $359 | −$62 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | Yes | 1,087 | 35.6¢ | 32.5¢ | $353 | −$34 | $0 | |
| Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | No | 405 | 76¢ | 80.5¢ | $326 | +$18 | −$3.04 | |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 2,245 | 36.2¢ | 14¢ | $314 | −$499 | −$140 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 402 | 62.7¢ | 72.5¢ | $292 | +$39 | $0 | |
| Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting? | No | 2,597 | 23¢ | 10.5¢ | $273 | −$325 | $0 | |
| Andrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026? | No | 284 | 70¢ | 92.5¢ | $263 | +$64 | −$166 | |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 1,248 | 19.9¢ | 19.9¢ | $248 | −$0.62 | $0 | |
| Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? | Yes | 1,011 | 20.9¢ | 24.5¢ | $248 | +$37 | $0 | |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? | No | 258 | 83¢ | 95.9¢ | $247 | +$33 | +$12 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026? | No | 540 | 44.5¢ | 44.5¢ | $240 | +$0.10 | $0 | |
| Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | Yes | 750 | 27.7¢ | 32¢ | $240 | +$32 | $0 | |
| Will Ra'am be in the next Israeli government? | Yes | 1,334 | 25¢ | 18¢ | $240 | −$94 | $0 | |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | Yes | 235 | 92.1¢ | 99.5¢ | $234 | +$17 | −$167 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 644 | 40.8¢ | 36¢ | $232 | −$31 | +$18 | |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 1,539 | 14.2¢ | 15.1¢ | $232 | +$13 | $0 | |
| Will Trump meet with Javier Milei by October 31, 2026? | No | 278 | 82¢ | 82.5¢ | $229 | +$1.39 | $0 | |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | Yes | 1,220 | 18¢ | 18.5¢ | $226 | +$6.10 | $0 | |
| Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | No | 459 | 44.4¢ | 49¢ | $225 | +$21 | +$268 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? | No | 447 | 46¢ | 50¢ | $223 | +$18 | +$56 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | No | 228 | 85¢ | 98¢ | $223 | +$29 | $0 | |
| Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 971 | 16¢ | 22.5¢ | $218 | +$63 | $0 | |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027? | No | 357 | 72¢ | 60.5¢ | $216 | −$41 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,038 | 37.4¢ | 20¢ | $208 | −$181 | $0 | |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | No | 280 | 67.5¢ | 73.5¢ | $206 | +$17 | −$57 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | Yes | 2,231 | 14.2¢ | 8.5¢ | $190 | −$126 | +$38 | |
| Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%? | Yes | 280 | 28.5¢ | 67.7¢ | $189 | +$110 | $0 | |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026? | No | 210 | 59.2¢ | 89.5¢ | $188 | +$64 | −$23 | |
| Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 10? | No | 936 | 26¢ | 19.5¢ | $183 | −$61 | $0 | |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 417 | 52¢ | 43.5¢ | $181 | −$35 | $0 | |