| Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding? | No | 14.1k | 24.4¢ | 87¢ | $12.3k | +$8,813 | +$49 | |
| Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | No | 10,000 | 51.5¢ | 43.7¢ | $4,370 | −$780 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 14.7k | 27.8¢ | 28.2¢ | $4,150 | +$64 | $0 | |
| Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | Yes | 9,000 | 42.7¢ | 43.5¢ | $3,915 | +$69 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 15.0k | 20.9¢ | 19.5¢ | $2,925 | −$217 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? | No | 2,000 | 77.9¢ | 88.5¢ | $1,770 | +$211 | +$522 | |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? | Yes | 4,905 | 45.5¢ | 34.5¢ | $1,692 | −$538 | $0 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? | No | 20.7k | 9.2¢ | 7.4¢ | $1,532 | −$376 | $0 | |
| Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by November 30, 2026? | No | 2,304 | 27.1¢ | 63¢ | $1,452 | +$827 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? | No | 6,000 | 21.2¢ | 23¢ | $1,380 | +$110 | $0 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher? | Yes | 26.9k | 10.2¢ | 5.1¢ | $1,359 | −$1,376 | $0 | |
| Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? | OpenAI | 14.6k | 10.2¢ | 8.5¢ | $1,245 | −$252 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 15.0k | 9.2¢ | 7.6¢ | $1,133 | −$244 | $0 | |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 7,000 | 36.4¢ | 14.5¢ | $1,015 | −$1,535 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? | No | 3,116 | 23.2¢ | 30.8¢ | $958 | +$236 | $0 | |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026? | Yes | 975 | 35¢ | 88¢ | $858 | +$517 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 2,500 | 11¢ | 32¢ | $800 | +$525 | +$363 | |
| Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T? | Yes | 1,793 | 43.9¢ | 43.5¢ | $780 | −$6.74 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | Yes | 1,588 | 49.5¢ | 46.5¢ | $738 | −$48 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? | No | 1,070 | 30.8¢ | 69¢ | $738 | +$408 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? | Yes | 2,294 | 26.8¢ | 28.5¢ | $654 | +$38 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT? | No | 734 | 88¢ | 78¢ | $573 | −$74 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | Yes | 839 | 55.1¢ | 62¢ | $520 | +$58 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's frontier output token price be at or below $15 in 2026? | No | 854 | 43.5¢ | 54¢ | $461 | +$90 | $0 | |
| Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? | Yes | 1,750 | 19.3¢ | 22.5¢ | $394 | +$56 | $0 | |
| Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher? | No | 3,279 | 6.4¢ | 11.5¢ | $377 | +$166 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? | No | 870 | 23.4¢ | 43.1¢ | $375 | +$171 | $0 | |
| Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | Yes | 451 | 73¢ | 80.5¢ | $363 | +$34 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495? | No | 537 | 26.9¢ | 64.5¢ | $347 | +$202 | $0 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher? | Yes | 1,178 | 42¢ | 27.5¢ | $324 | −$171 | $0 | |
| Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary? | Yes | 4,553 | 14.9¢ | 6.9¢ | $314 | −$364 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? | Yes | 1,186 | 27.8¢ | 25¢ | $296 | −$34 | −$8.73 | |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? | No | 500 | 57¢ | 54.5¢ | $273 | −$13 | $0 | |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 4,000 | 13.5¢ | 6.5¢ | $260 | −$280 | −$609 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? | No | 397 | 27.7¢ | 63.6¢ | $253 | +$143 | $0 | |
| Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher? | No | 1,770 | 5.4¢ | 12.1¢ | $214 | +$118 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher? | No | 356 | 20.3¢ | 56.6¢ | $201 | +$129 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? | No | 291 | 56.3¢ | 65.5¢ | $191 | +$27 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 6,729 | 3.8¢ | 2.6¢ | $175 | −$82 | $0 | |
| Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 40% or higher? | No | 3,000 | 4.7¢ | 5.7¢ | $171 | +$31 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? | No | 262 | 40.2¢ | 60.6¢ | $159 | +$53 | $0 | |
| Will AI solve Beal's conjecture in 2026? | No | 166 | 86¢ | 89.5¢ | $149 | +$5.81 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T? | Yes | 1,990 | 10.3¢ | 5.6¢ | $111 | −$94 | $0 | |
| Will AI solve the Hodge Conjecture in 2026? | No | 130 | 72.8¢ | 81.5¢ | $106 | +$11 | +$125 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | 500 | 56¢ | 18.5¢ | $92 | −$187 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? | No | 137 | 35.7¢ | 56¢ | $77 | +$28 | $0 | |
| Will AI solve the Hadwiger-Nelson problem in 2026? | Yes | 398 | 7¢ | 14.5¢ | $58 | +$30 | $0 | |
| Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by November 30, 2026? | No | 110 | 20.8¢ | 47¢ | $52 | +$29 | $0 | |
| Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 336 | 9¢ | 11¢ | $37 | +$6.73 | +$0.33 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | Yes | 80 | 54.5¢ | 45.5¢ | $37 | −$7.22 | $0 | |
| Will AI determine the Ramsey number R(5,5) in 2026? | Yes | 151 | 13¢ | 18.5¢ | $28 | +$8.31 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? | Yes | 1,000 | 7¢ | 2.5¢ | $24 | −$45 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | Yes | 4,014 | 2.2¢ | 0.6¢ | $24 | −$64 | −$1.68 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 9, 2026? | No | 22 | 76¢ | 97.4¢ | $21 | +$4.65 | $0 | |
| Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | Yes | 4,399 | 7.3¢ | 0.5¢ | $20 | −$301 | $0 | |
| Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2026? | Yes | 198 | 7.4¢ | 7.7¢ | $15 | +$0.51 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 346 | 0.6¢ | 4¢ | $14 | +$12 | $0 | |
| Will AI solve 4 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | Yes | 5,000 | 1.9¢ | 0.3¢ | $13 | −$83 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? | No | 431 | 9.1¢ | 2.9¢ | $12 | −$27 | $0 | |
| US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026? | Yes | 82 | 26¢ | 14.5¢ | $12 | −$9.43 | $0 | |
| Situational Awareness raises new capital by October 31? | Yes | 250 | 45¢ | 4.5¢ | $11 | −$101 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.50T? | Yes | 525 | 2.5¢ | 1.8¢ | $9.44 | −$3.47 | $0 | |
| U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? | Yes | 200 | 22¢ | 4.5¢ | $9.00 | −$35 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 304 | 3¢ | 2.6¢ | $7.91 | −$1.10 | +$122 | |
| Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 265 | 1.2¢ | 2.3¢ | $5.96 | +$2.78 | $0 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026? | Yes | 140 | 40.5¢ | 3.9¢ | $5.40 | −$51 | $0 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher? | No | 49 | 8.5¢ | 10.5¢ | $5.15 | +$0.98 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be less than $1.25T? | Yes | 285 | 0.8¢ | 1.6¢ | $4.55 | +$2.27 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? | No | 11 | 10¢ | 17.5¢ | $1.91 | +$0.82 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI raise at least $100B in its IPO? | Yes | 5 | 12¢ | 29.5¢ | $1.53 | +$0.91 | +$269 | |
| Will Gemini Argon be released on or prior to October 8, 2026? | Yes | 107 | 41.7¢ | 0.5¢ | $0.53 | −$44 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.9T and 1.2T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? | Yes | 100 | 0.5¢ | 0.5¢ | $0.45 | −$0.05 | $0 | |
| Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 200k | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$587 | −$13 | |
| Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 100k | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$100 | −$3.00 | |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 100.0k | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$186 | −$7.06 | |
| Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 94.6k | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$180 | +$2.46 | |
| Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 67.5k | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$100 | −$3.74 | |
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 40.0k | 1.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$660 | −$4.43 | |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 30.0k | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$90 | +$38 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | 22.2k | 7.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,572 | +$3,461 | |
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 20.0k | 3.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$755 | −$16 | |
| Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 20.0k | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$20 | −$0.80 | |
| Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 20.0k | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$20 | −$0.80 | |
| Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 20.0k | 2.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$560 | −$16 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Yes | 15.0k | 7.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,113 | $0 | |
| Will Alana Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding? | No | 13.1k | 7.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$971 | −$20 | |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | No | 11.0k | 6.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$758 | +$478 | |
| Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 10.0k | 3.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$307 | −$1.56 | |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Yes | 10.0k | 22.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,258 | −$568 | |
| Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's US Open? | Yes | 10.0k | 4.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$468 | −$13 | |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 10,000 | 0.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$72 | −$2.16 | |
| Will Warsh’s remarks not air? | Yes | 9,835 | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$9.83 | −$0.39 | |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Yes | 8,783 | 47.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$4,190 | +$500 | |
| Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 8,041 | 38.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3,103 | −$12 | |
| Will J Balvin perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? | Yes | 7,950 | 14.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,138 | −$48 | |
| Will Jack Antonoff attend Taylor Swift's wedding? | No | 7,168 | 3.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$279 | −$22 | |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 7,041 | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$6.99 | −$1.94 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | Yes | 6,000 | 9.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$550 | $0 | |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? | No | 5,697 | 13.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$792 | +$437 | |
| Will Danielle Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding? | No | 5,500 | 6.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$382 | −$13 | |