sharpside
LIVE--:--:-- UTCdata as of —24h vol —trades —whale trades —markets —Polymarket flow, ranked — who’s sharp, who’s early, where size is moving.
Traders/Rank #4,425

bakayo33 - 9934

0x343…cd2e
SharpWR 70+WR 60+1y+PoliticsSport
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$5,055vol $619k
PnL 30d+$1,951gains $2,856 · losses $733
PnL 7d+$263win rate 7d 78.1%
Win rate77.4%adj 76.3% · 30d 74.0%
Open value$16.8kcash n/a
Positions454 / 1,226open / all-time
Max drawdown−36.9%of equity peak
Account age2.4ylast trade 7m ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$5,366below peak $0Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

73/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale53
Adjusted win rateraw 77.4% · shrunk toward 50%91
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity63

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?No92087.8¢90.1¢$829+$21+$4.02
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?No63087.3¢87.5¢$551+$1.25+$4.22
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?No45086.6¢91.5¢$412+$22+$48
Modi out by December 31, 2026?No40791.6¢95.7¢$389+$17+$22
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?No39685.9¢94.7¢$375+$35+$48
Will Yemeni forces enter Sanaa by November 30?No38691.2¢94.5¢$365+$13$0
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?No32077¢94.5¢$302+$56$0
Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?No39072.5¢74.5¢$290+$7.81+$15
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No35083.6¢82.5¢$289−$3.80+$25
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes1,91924.9¢14.8¢$283−$195−$19
Will Dricus Du Plessis fight Sean Strickland next?No34274.8¢77.5¢$265+$9.27+$28
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?No34074.3¢75¢$255+$2.30−$98
Will Islam Makhachev be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Yes26688.8¢92.6¢$246+$10+$20
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No26085.4¢94.5¢$246+$24+$59
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?No25086.8¢89¢$223+$5.50+$60
Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Yes29361.2¢69¢$202+$23+$121
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?No22484.1¢90¢$202+$13+$2.36
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes1,10015.9¢17.8¢$195+$20$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?No20087.9¢96.5¢$193+$17$0
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by March 31, 2027?No23072.7¢79.5¢$183+$16$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?No20475.2¢86¢$175+$22+$35
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?No19572¢89.5¢$174+$34+$23
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?No25443.5¢65.5¢$166+$56+$4.83
Will Arman Tsarukyan be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?No18091.8¢91.4¢$164−$0.89$0
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?No17992.9¢89¢$159−$6.93$0
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?No16783.9¢93.5¢$156+$16+$7.85
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?No17084.5¢89¢$151+$7.70+$11
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?No20564.1¢73¢$149+$18+$9.92
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes1,0003.6¢14.5¢$145+$109$0
Will Dricus Du Plessis fight Nasourdine Imavov next?No19380.1¢73.3¢$141−$13−$6.30
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?No15885.5¢87.5¢$138+$3.13+$1.26
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?No16365.2¢84¢$137+$31+$5.18
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31?No14878.9¢91.5¢$136+$19$0
Will Caio Borralho fight Gregory Rodrigues next?No14078.1¢88.8¢$124+$15+$85
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?No15377.4¢79¢$121+$2.40−$6.23
Cuban regime falls in 2026?No13388.1¢89.5¢$119+$1.88+$2.72
Saudi troops enter Sanaa by October 31, 2026?No12094¢97.9¢$117+$4.68$0
Will James Madison Make the 2027 College Football Playoff National Championship Game?No12691.9¢92.7¢$117+$0.98$0
Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028?No30052¢38.5¢$115−$40$0
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?No14060.5¢80.5¢$113+$28+$18
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?No14079.9¢79.5¢$111−$0.50$0
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?No11692.7¢93.5¢$108+$0.96+$5.60
Will Rafael Fiziev fight Benoit Saint-Denis next?No14064.4¢76.5¢$107+$17$0
Will Josh Hokit be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Yes33812.9¢30.9¢$104+$61+$19
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No12080.3¢85.5¢$103+$6.20+$103
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?No11183.7¢91.5¢$101+$8.68+$7.43
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?No12086¢84.5¢$101−$1.80$0
JD Vance Republican nomination odds leader on October 31?Yes10096¢97.3¢$97+$1.25$0
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?No19632.4¢48¢$94+$31−$6.22
Will Islam Makhachev fight Carlos Prates next?Yes10075¢91¢$91+$16$0
Will Republicans lose any "Safe Republican" Senate race?No12571¢71¢$89$0−$0.25
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes7653.7¢11.5¢$88+$60+$31
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes10051.5¢86.6¢$87+$35$0
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?No10084.4¢86.5¢$87+$2.10$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?No15538.4¢55.8¢$86+$27+$28
Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Yes13852.7¢62.5¢$86+$14+$12
Saudi troops enter Taiz Governorate by December 31, 2026?No10085.8¢85.5¢$86−$0.30+$0.80
France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?No8573.2¢97.9¢$83+$21+$3.89
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?No36031.5¢23¢$83−$31$0
Will Assimi Goïta be out as President of Mali by June 30, 2027?No11561.1¢70.5¢$81+$11$0
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by October 15, 2026?No10075¢80¢$80+$5.00$0
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?Yes28037.4¢28.5¢$80−$25$0
UFC Fight Night: Mike Malott vs. Joaquin Buckley (Welterweight, Main Card)Mike Malott14248.2¢52.5¢$74+$6.10+$1.45
Will Joshua Van be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Yes7691¢96¢$73+$3.77$0
Will Darian Mensah win the 2026 Heisman Trophy?No8087¢89.5¢$72+$2.00$0
Will Manchester City be relegated from the Premier League in 2026-27?No10068¢69.5¢$69+$1.50$0
Will TCU Make the 2027 College Football Playoff National Championship Game?No7392.7¢93.5¢$68+$0.55$0
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?No8084¢84.5¢$68+$0.40$0
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?No7079.5¢96.6¢$68+$12+$61
Will Manel Kape become UFC champion in 2026?No7289.3¢94¢$67+$3.38$0
Will Israel Adesanya fight Gregory Rodrigues next?No8077¢82.5¢$66+$4.40$0
Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?No7076.1¢93¢$65+$12+$5.34
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?No7270.8¢89.5¢$64+$13+$26
Will Trinidad Chambliss be the first overall pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?No6990.6¢91.1¢$62+$0.31$0
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?Yes7088.7¢88.8¢$62+$0.04$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?No19028.4¢32.5¢$62+$7.75$0
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes7382.8¢84.5¢$61+$1.24+$5.93
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?Yes42016.3¢14.5¢$61−$7.70$0
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes43014.3¢13.5¢$58−$3.45$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?No6086¢93.5¢$56+$4.50+$5.25
Will Max Holloway fight Ilia Topuria next?No6090¢93.5¢$56+$2.10$0
Will Mississippi Rebels win the 2027 CFP National Championship?Yes1,4401.5¢3.9¢$55+$34+$83
Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?No6079.7¢92¢$55+$7.38$0
Will Oregon Make the 2027 College Football Playoff National Championship Game?No6085¢92¢$55+$4.20$0
Will Texas Longhorns win the 2027 CFP National Championship?No6091¢91.5¢$55+$0.30$0
Will USC Make the 2027 College Football Playoff National Championship Game?No6092.1¢91.1¢$55−$0.65$0
Will Patrick Mahomes have 3,500+ passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?Yes8067¢68¢$54+$0.80$0
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?No6091¢90.5¢$54−$0.30−$0.40
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes15056¢35.5¢$53−$31$0
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes17432.8¢30.5¢$53−$3.95−$25
Will Ole Miss Make the 2026-27 CFB Playoffs?Yes14138.5¢37.5¢$53−$1.47$0
Will Islam Makhachev be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at the end of 2026?Yes5689¢94.5¢$52+$3.06$0
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes21065.9¢24.5¢$51−$87−$1.26
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by December 31?No6776.4¢74.5¢$50−$1.28−$0.31
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 10?Yes5019¢100¢$50+$40$0
Will Nassourdine Imamov fight Sean Strickland next?Yes7084.3¢71.2¢$50−$9.18+$126
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?No5488¢92.5¢$50+$2.42−$5.80
Houthis enter Aden by November 30, 2026?No6086¢82.5¢$50−$2.10$0
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?No6076.7¢82¢$49+$3.17+$20
Will Indiana Make the 2027 College Football Playoff National Championship Game?No6080¢79.5¢$48−$0.30$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill Arman Tsarukyan be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?91.4¢60$5577%73Sharp
BUY NoDelcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?91¢12$1177%73Sharp
BUY NoWill Houthis target Pakistan by December 31, 2026?85¢30$2677%73Sharp
BUY NoZack Polanski out as Green Party Leader by December 31?82¢21$1777%73Sharp
BUY NoTurkey military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?88¢40$3577%73Sharp
BUY YesRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by July 31, 2027?53¢40$2177%73Sharp
SELL NoRussia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?64¢29$1977%73Sharp
SELL NoWill Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?88.8¢195$17377%73Sharp
BUY NoZack Polanski out as Green Party Leader by October 31?90¢50$4577%73Sharp
BUY NoZack Polanski out as Green Party Leader by March 31?62¢90$5677%73Sharp
SELL NoLula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by October 15?98.9¢10$1077%73Sharp
BUY NoZack Polanski out as Green Party Leader by March 31?62¢70$4377%73Sharp
BUY NoZack Polanski out as Green Party Leader by December 31?82¢80$6677%73Sharp
BUY NoWill Houthis target Pakistan by October 31, 2026?89¢100$8977%73Sharp
BUY NoUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?87.4¢50$4477%73Sharp
BUY YesWill Trevor Lawrence have 3,500+ passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?61¢20$1277%73Sharp
BUY YesWill Patrick Mahomes have 3,500+ passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?67¢80$5477%73Sharp
BUY NoWill USC Make the 2027 College Football Playoff National Championship Game?92.3¢40$3777%73Sharp
BUY NoCuban regime falls in 2026?90¢50$4577%73Sharp
BUY NoWill the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by December 31?75¢20$1577%73Sharp