| Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 8? | No | 3,141 | 60¢ | 85.5¢ | $2,686 | +$801 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | No | 4,523 | 41.6¢ | 58.5¢ | $2,646 | +$763 | +$4.85 | |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027? | Yes | 2,365 | 77.1¢ | 62.5¢ | $1,478 | −$344 | −$33 | |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on October 8? | No | 1,287 | 64¢ | 100¢ | $1,286 | +$463 | $0 | |
| Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? | No | 1,628 | 70¢ | 76.5¢ | $1,246 | +$106 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 8? | No | 1,169 | 76.8¢ | 100¢ | $1,168 | +$271 | $0 | |
| Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? | No | 1,018 | 92.4¢ | 96.4¢ | $981 | +$41 | $0 | |
| Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | No | 1,285 | 69.7¢ | 45.1¢ | $579 | −$317 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 0%-3%? | No | 496 | 83¢ | 84.5¢ | $419 | +$7.44 | $0 | |
| Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | 422 | 93¢ | 97.9¢ | $413 | +$20 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MA-04 House election by 40%-45%? | No | 444 | 90¢ | 92.1¢ | $409 | +$9.11 | $0 | |
| Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 2026? | No | 515 | 34.4¢ | 76.9¢ | $396 | +$219 | $0 | |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31? | No | 503 | 34¢ | 78.5¢ | $395 | +$224 | $0 | |
| Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | 571 | 70¢ | 68¢ | $389 | −$11 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-13 House election by 75%-80%? | No | 459 | 87¢ | 84.3¢ | $387 | −$13 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-15 House election by 0%-3%? | No | 461 | 80¢ | 83¢ | $383 | +$14 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 DE-AL House election by 10%-15%? | No | 365 | 94¢ | 99¢ | $361 | +$18 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | No | 1,447 | 27¢ | 24.5¢ | $355 | −$36 | +$7.48 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | Yes | 847 | 47.4¢ | 41.5¢ | $352 | −$50 | +$0.47 | |
| US recession by end of 2026? | No | 349 | 89¢ | 93.5¢ | $326 | +$16 | −$39 | |
| Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting? | No | 362 | 88¢ | 87.5¢ | $317 | −$1.81 | $0 | |
| Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026? | Yes | 445 | 32.6¢ | 69.7¢ | $310 | +$165 | $0 | |
| Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? | No | 299 | 76¢ | 98.4¢ | $294 | +$67 | −$20 | |
| Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027? | No | 324 | 77.1¢ | 88.5¢ | $287 | +$37 | $0 | |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | 495 | 28.1¢ | 58¢ | $287 | +$148 | $0 | |
| Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31? | No | 715 | 45.8¢ | 39¢ | $279 | −$48 | $0 | |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31? | No | 493 | 21¢ | 51.5¢ | $254 | +$150 | $0 | |
| Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30? | No | 222 | 90¢ | 99.4¢ | $221 | +$21 | $0 | |
| Nobel Peace Prize 2026 awarded to an individual? | No | 518 | 44¢ | 40.5¢ | $210 | −$18 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 833 | 24¢ | 24.5¢ | $204 | +$4.17 | $0 | |
| Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31? | No | 245 | 70¢ | 82.1¢ | $201 | +$30 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 FL-13 House election by 0%-3%? | No | 241 | 83¢ | 81.9¢ | $198 | −$2.65 | $0 | |
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 227 | 82¢ | 81.5¢ | $185 | −$1.13 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 ND-AL House election by 30%-35%? | No | 223 | 84¢ | 81.6¢ | $182 | −$5.36 | $0 | |
| Will Chaos Labs launch a token by September 30, 2027? | No | 229 | 87¢ | 76.5¢ | $175 | −$24 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OR-06 House election by 30%-35%? | No | 186 | 95¢ | 91¢ | $169 | −$7.44 | $0 | |
| Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 37M tonnes at end of October 2026? | No | 173 | 97¢ | 96.8¢ | $167 | −$0.43 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 HI-01 House election by 45%-50%? | No | 164 | 81¢ | 82.5¢ | $136 | +$2.47 | $0 | |
| Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 200 | 40.3¢ | 65.7¢ | $131 | +$51 | $0 | |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 9? | No | 1,437 | 42¢ | 9¢ | $129 | −$474 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 600 | 30¢ | 21.5¢ | $129 | −$51 | +$147 | |
| Will “Choosin' Texas” by Ella Langley win Song of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards? | Yes | 150 | 60¢ | 79.5¢ | $119 | +$29 | $0 | |
| Will South Sudan have an Ebola case in 2026? | No | 192 | 1¢ | 60.5¢ | $116 | +$114 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-18 House election by 10%-15%? | No | 163 | 84¢ | 71¢ | $116 | −$21 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 ID-01 House election by 40%-45%? | No | 130 | 93.3¢ | 83.9¢ | $109 | −$12 | $0 | |
| Will over 50 Senators vote for the Clarity Act? | No | 110 | 32¢ | 94¢ | $103 | +$68 | $0 | |
| Will Isa Ali Ibrahim Pantami win the 2027 Gombe State gubernatorial election? | No | 129 | 58¢ | 72.5¢ | $93 | +$19 | $0 | |
| Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | No | 90 | 11¢ | 99.5¢ | $90 | +$80 | $0 | |
| Will "Babydoll – Dominic Fike" be the #2 song for 2026? | Yes | 118 | 58.5¢ | 73.5¢ | $87 | +$18 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 FL-24 House election by 55% or more? | No | 82 | 87¢ | 79¢ | $65 | −$6.55 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 8? | No | 63 | 70¢ | 100¢ | $63 | +$19 | $0 | |
| Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? | Yes | 84 | 61¢ | 69¢ | $58 | +$6.73 | $0 | |
| Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by October 31? | No | 58 | 86¢ | 96.8¢ | $56 | +$6.24 | $0 | |
| Will Republicans win white women in the midterms? | No | 68 | 69¢ | 79.5¢ | $54 | +$7.16 | $0 | |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 9? | Down | 118 | 42.4¢ | 45¢ | $53 | +$3.10 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-05 House election by 18%-21%? | No | 54 | 91¢ | 96.6¢ | $52 | +$3.02 | $0 | |
| Will The Debut win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 52 | 93.5¢ | 98.5¢ | $51 | +$2.60 | $0 | |
| Will Bitmine announce that it holds more than 9M ETH before 2027? | Yes | 379 | 7¢ | 13.5¢ | $51 | +$25 | $0 | |
| Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | No | 56 | 90¢ | 92¢ | $51 | +$1.08 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? | No | 56 | 89¢ | 90¢ | $50 | +$0.56 | $0 | |
| Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by December 31? | No | 70 | 63¢ | 68.5¢ | $48 | +$3.82 | $0 | |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | No | 97 | 61.5¢ | 48.5¢ | $47 | −$13 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MD-01 House election by 9%-12%? | No | 58 | 86¢ | 80.5¢ | $47 | −$3.19 | $0 | |
| Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? | No | 199 | 44¢ | 22¢ | $44 | −$44 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-15 House election by 55%-60%? | No | 51 | 85¢ | 85¢ | $43 | $0 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 WI-01 House election by 3%-6%? | No | 49 | 88¢ | 87.5¢ | $43 | −$0.27 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-07 House election by 0%-3%? | No | 47 | 93.5¢ | 91.6¢ | $43 | −$0.91 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? | No | 100 | 28.3¢ | 41.7¢ | $42 | +$13 | $0 | |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in October? | No | 96 | 26¢ | 41¢ | $39 | +$14 | $0 | |
| Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? | No | 45 | 55¢ | 83.5¢ | $38 | +$13 | $0 | |
| Google matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31? | Yes | 179 | 45¢ | 21¢ | $38 | −$43 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? | Yes | 298 | 12¢ | 12.5¢ | $37 | +$1.49 | $0 | |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15? | Yes | 530 | 8¢ | 7¢ | $37 | −$5.30 | $0 | |
| Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? | No | 42 | 57¢ | 85.5¢ | $36 | +$12 | $0 | |
| Will Peter Freshney win the next Latrobe mayoral election? | No | 36 | 94.1¢ | 99.4¢ | $36 | +$1.90 | $0 | |
| Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027? | No | 37 | 42¢ | 96.3¢ | $35 | +$20 | $0 | |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 40 | 62¢ | 85.7¢ | $34 | +$9.46 | $0 | |
| US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31? | Yes | 250 | 10¢ | 13.5¢ | $34 | +$8.75 | $0 | |
| Will Democrats win the Minnesota Governor election and Republicans win the Minnesota Senate election? | Yes | 333 | 3¢ | 9.9¢ | $33 | +$23 | $0 | |
| Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 105 | 28¢ | 31¢ | $32 | +$3.13 | $0 | |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 125 | 27.9¢ | 25.5¢ | $32 | −$2.96 | $0 | |
| Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.5M Iranian rials on December 31? | No | 36 | 67¢ | 82.5¢ | $30 | +$5.57 | $0 | |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026? | No | 30 | 82¢ | 96¢ | $29 | +$4.20 | $0 | |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in October? | Yes | 106 | 29.3¢ | 26.5¢ | $28 | −$2.96 | $0 | |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 32 | 78¢ | 86.5¢ | $28 | +$2.72 | $0 | |
| Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch? | Yes | 38 | 65¢ | 69.5¢ | $27 | +$1.73 | $0 | |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 29 | 85¢ | 90.5¢ | $27 | +$1.62 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on October 10? | No | 51 | 49¢ | 51.5¢ | $26 | +$1.27 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party win the MI-06 House seat? | Yes | 1,110 | 0.9¢ | 2.4¢ | $26 | +$16 | $0 | |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 59 | 42¢ | 43.7¢ | $26 | +$0.98 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on October 8? | No | 26 | 98¢ | 100¢ | $25 | +$0.50 | $0 | |
| Will Nvidia have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of November 2026? | No | 26 | 98¢ | 99.5¢ | $25 | +$0.38 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 FL-24 House election by 50%-55%? | Yes | 71 | 14¢ | 35.5¢ | $25 | +$15 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? | No | 32 | 78¢ | 78.5¢ | $25 | +$0.16 | $0 | |
| Israel election: will Likud lose seats? | Yes | 27 | 91¢ | 92.9¢ | $25 | +$0.51 | $0 | |
| Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? | No | 26 | 96¢ | 96.1¢ | $25 | +$0.03 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 3%-6%? | No | 27 | 91¢ | 92.5¢ | $25 | +$0.41 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | No | 29 | 85.6¢ | 86.9¢ | $25 | +$0.36 | $0 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? | No | 33 | 75¢ | 74¢ | $25 | −$0.33 | $0 | |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US before 2027? | No | 25 | 96.4¢ | 98.2¢ | $25 | +$0.44 | $0 | |