sharpside
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Traders/Rank #8,937

trentk

0x3b2…5e5e
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Polymarket
PnL all-time−$626vol $84.4k
PnL 30d+$8.36gains $0 · losses $0
PnL 7d−$3.62win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate52.2%adj 52.1% · 30d 0.0%
Open value$1,715cash n/a
Positions105 / 587open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age11molast trade 6mo ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$637below peak −$889Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

25/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 52.2% · shrunk toward 50%30
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable92
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?No34943¢100¢$349+$199$0
US strike on Mexico by March 31?No20374¢100¢$203+$53$0
Once Upon a Farm IPO before 2027?Yes18183¢100¢$181+$31$0
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?No17588¢97.5¢$170+$17$0
Will Israel strike 3 countries in January 2026?No16884¢100¢$168+$27$0
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes7938¢100¢$79+$49$0
No one announced as next James Bond?Yes7341¢100¢$73+$43$0
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes6844¢100¢$68+$38$0
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?No5258¢100¢$52+$22$0
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?Yes4962¢100¢$49+$19$0
Ramp IPO before 2027?No4477¢97.8¢$43+$9.23+$0.80
Google Gemini ParlayNo4173¢100¢$41+$11$0
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?No3683¢99.3¢$36+$5.91$0
Mistral AI IPO before 2027?No3487¢98.1¢$34+$3.81$0
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes3977¢70.5¢$27−$2.53$0
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No3655¢65.5¢$24+$3.82$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Yes1953¢100¢$19+$8.86−$25
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes7242¢24.5¢$18−$13$0
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?Yes3459¢50¢$17−$3.05$0
Xi Jinping out before 2027?No1188.8¢97.3¢$11+$0.95+$0.08
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?Yes1952¢50¢$9.61−$0.38$0
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m and 440m by January 31?No280¢100¢$2.48+$0.50−$1.80
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes1951.9¢12.5¢$2.31−$7.29−$1.18
Databricks IPO before 2027?Yes6944¢2.8¢$1.93−$28$0
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66?No261.6¢100¢$1.54+$0.59+$1.15
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No180¢100¢$1.38+$0.28$0
Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No185.4¢100¢$1.31+$0.19−$0.99
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?No163¢100¢$1.01+$0.37+$60
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No169¢100¢$1.01+$0.31+$44
US forces enter Iran by January 31?No190¢100¢$1.00+$0.10+$3.38
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?No167¢100¢$1.00+$0.33−$2.23
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?Yes142¢100¢$1.00+$0.58−$4.45
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes131.4¢100¢$1.00+$0.69+$14
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31?No186¢100¢$1.00+$0.14+$5.20
Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31?No172¢100¢$1.00+$0.28−$4.02
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes187¢100¢$1.00+$0.13−$26
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No187¢100¢$1.00+$0.13−$1.34
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No182¢100¢$1.00+$0.18−$28
Cerebras IPO before 2027?Yes173¢100¢$1.00+$0.27+$0.10
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?No189.6¢100¢$1.00+$0.10+$1.73
Robinhood launches prediction market through MIAXdx by March 31?No160¢100¢$1.00+$0.40+$20
Odds of Khamenei out by February over 30% in January?No187¢100¢$1.00+$0.13$0
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?No175.7¢100¢$1.00+$0.24−$0.56
GPT ads by March 31?Yes127¢100¢$1.00+$0.73+$74
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes176¢100¢$1.00+$0.24−$5.27
Insurrection Act invoked by January 31?No189¢100¢$1.00+$0.11−$8.02
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?No186¢100¢$1.00+$0.14+$2.38
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?No143¢100¢$1.00+$0.57−$8.62
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Yes157¢100¢$1.00+$0.43+$1.03
Named storm forms before hurricane season?No156¢100¢$1.00+$0.44+$5.68
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No180¢100¢$1.00+$0.20+$2.57
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?No186¢100¢$1.00+$0.14+$3.39
Stripe IPO before 2027?No169¢97¢$0.98+$0.28+$2.16
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?No186¢96.8¢$0.97+$0.11−$1.02
US strike on Mexico by December 31?No162¢96.2¢$0.96+$0.34+$17
Natural Disaster in 2026?No152¢92¢$0.93+$0.40−$5.80
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No189.4¢92.2¢$0.92+$0.03+$2.90
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No188.7¢82.3¢$0.82−$0.06+$0.32
Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?No175¢80.5¢$0.81+$0.06−$2.57
5kt meteor strike in 2026?No148¢79¢$0.79+$0.31+$9.80
Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?No163¢56.5¢$0.56−$0.07+$2.50
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?No152¢50¢$0.50−$0.02−$0.44
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseYes145¢28.5¢$0.28−$0.17−$1.56
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes137¢14.5¢$0.14−$0.23−$8.93
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?Yes111¢3.3¢$0.03−$0.08−$86
Applied Intuition IPO before 2027?Yes135¢3.3¢$0.03−$0.32−$81
Will the US strike Syria next?Yes1,00614.9¢0¢$0−$150$0
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by January 31?Yes65721¢0¢$0−$138−$13
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?No61225¢0¢$0−$153$0
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Yes53528¢0¢$0−$150$0
Iran strike on US military by January 31?Yes41337¢0¢$0−$153$0
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026?No28953¢0¢$0−$153$0
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?No28542.1¢0¢$0−$120$0
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?No15288¢0¢$0−$133$0
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026?No13264¢0¢$0−$85$0
Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?Yes5654¢0¢$0−$30$0
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?No4075¢0¢$0−$30$0
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025?Yes2333.4¢0¢$0−$7.71−$6.03
Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31?Yes1023¢0¢$0−$2.30$0
Will Silver (SI) settle over $90 on the final trading day of January 2026?Yes889¢0¢$0−$7.54$0
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?No468¢0¢$0−$2.73+$3.37
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?No380¢0¢$0−$2.55−$7.54
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31?Yes135¢0¢$0−$0.36$0
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of January?No178¢0¢$0−$0.79−$1.92
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel EditionYes165¢0¢$0−$0.66−$18
Will Trump issue a Gold Card by March 31?Yes126¢0¢$0−$0.26−$36
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?No164¢0¢$0−$0.64+$56
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 29, 2026?Yes148¢0¢$0−$0.48−$51
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026?No176.9¢0¢$0−$0.77−$3.99
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?No189.8¢0¢$0−$0.90−$22
U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31?No118¢0¢$0−$0.18−$28
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?Yes114¢0¢$0−$0.14−$2.21
Nothing Ever Happens: KhameneiYes163¢0¢$0−$0.63+$46
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?No165¢0¢$0−$0.65−$4.72
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?No185.2¢0¢$0−$0.85+$1.07
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?Yes154¢0¢$0−$0.54+$17
Will 1550 to 1599 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?No186¢0¢$0−$0.86−$25
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January?No126¢0¢$0−$0.26−$149
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?Yes177¢0¢$0−$0.77−$14
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31?Yes120¢0¢$0−$0.20−$22

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL NoWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?87¢37$3252%25
SELL NoRobinhood launches prediction market through MIAXdx by March 31?99.5¢49$4952%25
SELL NoWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?83¢34$2852%25
SELL NoWill Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?68.2¢38$2652%25
SELL NoKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?0.5¢54$0.2752%25
SELL YesWill One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?73¢176$12852%25
SELL NoWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?30.5¢69$2152%25
SELL YesWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?59¢52$3052%25
SELL YesWill Trump issue a Gold Card by March 31?19.7¢576$11352%25
SELL YesWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?72¢172$12452%25
SELL YesApplied Intuition IPO before 2027?16.4¢434$7152%25
SELL NoNatural Disaster in 2026?50¢290$14552%25
SELL Yes2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House44.6¢400$17852%25
SELL No5kt meteor strike in 2026?51.1¢311$15952%25
SELL YesWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?5¢1,427$7152%25
SELL YesWill People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?78¢309$24152%25
SELL NoTrump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?88¢242$21352%25
SELL NoNamed storm forms before hurricane season?66.7¢53$3552%25
SELL YesNothing Ever Happens: Khamenei82.3¢237$19552%25
SELL NoUS strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?89¢221$19652%25