| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 22.9k | 21.6¢ | 16.5¢ | $3,779 | −$1,175 | $0 | |
| Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? | Yes | 10.4k | 30.5¢ | 18.5¢ | $1,919 | −$1,247 | $0 | |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | Yes | 48.6k | 13.3¢ | 3.9¢ | $1,871 | −$4,571 | $0 | |
| Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? | Yes | 4,010 | 24.1¢ | 30.5¢ | $1,223 | +$256 | $0 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | No | 1,000 | 25.4¢ | 85.5¢ | $855 | +$601 | $0 | |
| Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 25.5k | 2.1¢ | 2.2¢ | $548 | +$8.17 | $0 | |
| Trump out as President before GTA VI? | Yes | 1,095 | 29.4¢ | 50¢ | $547 | +$225 | $0 | |
| Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026? | No | 431 | 34.3¢ | 95.5¢ | $412 | +$264 | $0 | |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 200 | 76¢ | 100¢ | $200 | +$48 | −$1.82 | |
| Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 4,443 | 11.7¢ | 4.5¢ | $200 | −$319 | $0 | |
| Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026? | No | 200 | 72.9¢ | 90.5¢ | $181 | +$35 | $0 | |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 200 | 72.8¢ | 85.9¢ | $172 | +$26 | $0 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Yes | 2,711 | 18.3¢ | 5.8¢ | $156 | −$340 | $0 | |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? | Yes | 4,143 | 14.5¢ | 3.7¢ | $151 | −$449 | $0 | |
| Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? | Yes | 100 | 70¢ | 100¢ | $100 | +$30 | $0 | |
| Will Trump nationalize elections? | Yes | 1,106 | 18.9¢ | 9¢ | $100 | −$110 | $0 | |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Yes | 909 | 22¢ | 10.5¢ | $95 | −$105 | $0 | |
| Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 3,580 | 2.8¢ | 2.5¢ | $88 | −$13 | $0 | |
| Will Trump pardon Nicolas Maduro before 2027? | Yes | 2,191 | 10.5¢ | 3.8¢ | $82 | −$148 | $0 | |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Yes | 1,111 | 18¢ | 4.5¢ | $49 | −$151 | $0 | |
| Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? | Yes | 1,124 | 9.9¢ | 3.7¢ | $42 | −$70 | $0 | |
| Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026? | Yes | 526 | 19¢ | 7¢ | $37 | −$63 | $0 | |
| Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,980 | 10.1¢ | 1.9¢ | $37 | −$163 | $0 | |
| Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 364 | 11¢ | 6.9¢ | $25 | −$15 | $0 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 435 | 23¢ | 5.5¢ | $24 | −$76 | $0 | |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? | Yes | 200 | 19¢ | 10.5¢ | $21 | −$17 | $0 | |
| US strike on Mexico by December 31? | Yes | 455 | 22¢ | 3.9¢ | $17 | −$82 | $0 | |
| Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 208 | 10¢ | 5.5¢ | $11 | −$9.27 | $0 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes | 376 | 10.6¢ | 2.3¢ | $8.46 | −$32 | $0 | |
| Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Yes | 20 | 50¢ | 20.5¢ | $4.10 | −$5.90 | $0 | |
| Will US annex any territory in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 21¢ | 3.9¢ | $3.85 | −$17 | $0 | |
| Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 476 | 21¢ | 0.8¢ | $3.57 | −$96 | $0 | |
| Will Iran strike seven countries in March? | Yes | 50.0k | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$50 | $0 | |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Yes | 43.7k | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$220 | $0 | |
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Yes | 10.2k | 13.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,426 | $0 | |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 10.0k | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$20 | $0 | |
| US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? | Yes | 8,703 | 2.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$205 | $0 | |
| Trump out as President by March 31? | Yes | 6,461 | 3.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$231 | $0 | |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | Yes | 5,788 | 1.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$104 | $0 | |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 5,736 | 2.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$142 | $0 | |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | Yes | 5,559 | 5.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$300 | $0 | |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 5,420 | 1.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$90 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? | Yes | 5,084 | 0.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$40 | $0 | |
| Trump out as President by June 30? | Yes | 4,000 | 2.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$100 | −$2.92 | |
| Nuclear weapon detonation by December 31? | Yes | 4,000 | 24.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$982 | $0 | |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 3,006 | 24¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$720 | $0 | |
| US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? | Yes | 3,004 | 23.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$700 | $0 | |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Yes | 3,000 | 10¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$300 | $0 | |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 2,857 | 0.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$20 | $0 | |
| Trump out as President in 2025? | Yes | 2,782 | 8.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$247 | $0 | |
| US strike on Cuba by January 31? | Yes | 2,654 | 3.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$100 | $0 | |
| Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more? | Yes | 2,541 | 3.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$100 | $0 | |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 2,510 | 8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$200 | $0 | |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? | Yes | 2,498 | 3.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$80 | $0 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025? | Yes | 2,428 | 5.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$130 | −$24 | |
| Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31? | Yes | 2,033 | 6.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$141 | $0 | |
| U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by January 31? | Yes | 1,969 | 3.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$70 | +$127 | |
| US strike on Mexico by March 31? | Yes | 1,949 | 10.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$200 | $0 | |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? | Yes | 1,910 | 18.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$356 | $0 | |
| Will the government shutdown end November 14? | Yes | 1,682 | 2.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$35 | $0 | |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,443 | 12.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$182 | +$821 | |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1,429 | 7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$100 | $0 | |
| US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? | Yes | 1,402 | 28.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$400 | $0 | |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 1,401 | 9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$126 | +$61 | |
| Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in September? | Yes | 1,365 | 76.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,040 | $0 | |
| Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? | Yes | 1,167 | 6.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$80 | $0 | |
| Will the Government shutdown end by November 30? | No | 1,111 | 9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$100 | $0 | |
| US strike on Cuba by March 31? | Yes | 1,091 | 11¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$120 | $0 | |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 1,042 | 38.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$400 | $0 | |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Yes | 1,000 | 10¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$100 | $0 | |
| Fed rate cut by October meeting? | No | 988 | 10.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$100 | $0 | |
| Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more? | Yes | 985 | 10.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$100 | $0 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 947 | 57.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$541 | −$30 | |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 900 | 14¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$126 | $0 | |
| Maduro exiled to Russia by March 31? | Yes | 870 | 4.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$39 | $0 | |
| Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | Yes | 866 | 4.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$40 | $0 | |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? | Yes | 840 | 14.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$120 | $0 | |
| Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? | Yes | 808 | 5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$40 | $0 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | No | 800 | 27¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$216 | $0 | |
| Will Pete Hegseth be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025? | Yes | 798 | 2.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$20 | $0 | |
| Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 11? | Yes | 791 | 2.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$20 | $0 | |
| Fed rate cut in 2025? | No | 700 | 9.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$64 | $0 | |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? | Yes | 670 | 14.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$100 | $0 | |
| Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 12? | Yes | 658 | 3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$20 | $0 | |
| Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? | No | 642 | 15.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$100 | $0 | |
| US forces enter Iran by March 14? | Yes | 618 | 16.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$100 | $0 | |
| Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 31, 2026? | Yes | 600 | 1.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$10.00 | $0 | |
| Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? | Yes | 600 | 2.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$15 | −$0.35 | |
| Trump cabinet member out before July? | Yes | 590 | 37.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$222 | $0 | |
| Nothing Ever Happens: World Leader Out Edition | No | 532 | 7.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$40 | $0 | |
| U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by January 31? | Yes | 516 | 3.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$20 | $0 | |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15? | Yes | 507 | 19.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$100 | $0 | |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | No | 500 | 12¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$60 | $0 | |
| Will four or more people dissent the September Fed decision? | Yes | 450 | 8.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$40 | $0 | |
| US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? | Yes | 444 | 9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$40 | $0 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | Yes | 444 | 9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$40 | $0 | |
| Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 30, 2026? | No | 435 | 4.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$20 | $0 | |
| Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 19? | Yes | 413 | 4.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$20 | $0 | |
| Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30? | Yes | 400 | 14¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$56 | $0 | |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by December 23? | Yes | 400 | 15¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$60 | $0 | |