| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 50.6k | 74.7¢ | 84.5¢ | $42.8k | +$4,949 | +$13.7k | |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | No | 25.6k | 36.6¢ | 57.5¢ | $14.7k | +$5,353 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | No | 15.9k | 58.1¢ | 73.5¢ | $11.7k | +$2,446 | $0 | |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 15.6k | 64.9¢ | 63.5¢ | $9,877 | −$211 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 39.1k | 26.7¢ | 20.5¢ | $8,022 | −$2,410 | −$829 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | No | 18.7k | 33¢ | 37.5¢ | $6,997 | +$840 | +$303 | |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? | No | 6,925 | 73.9¢ | 96.4¢ | $6,676 | +$1,561 | +$26 | |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | 10.2k | 31.8¢ | 58¢ | $5,898 | +$2,660 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 3,295 | 57.3¢ | 69.5¢ | $2,290 | +$401 | $0 | |
| Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | Yes | 18.9k | 18.6¢ | 9.5¢ | $1,794 | −$1,716 | $0 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? | Yes | 1,554 | 90.5¢ | 92.6¢ | $1,439 | +$33 | $0 | |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 4,727 | 53.9¢ | 28.7¢ | $1,357 | −$1,190 | −$209 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher? | No | 1,300 | 93.5¢ | 95.1¢ | $1,236 | +$20 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | Yes | 8,766 | 14.5¢ | 11.5¢ | $1,008 | −$262 | $0 | |
| Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | Yes | 1,186 | 70.5¢ | 73.5¢ | $872 | +$36 | $0 | |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 3,233 | 54.8¢ | 25.5¢ | $824 | −$948 | −$614 | |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31? | Yes | 4,453 | 30.4¢ | 14.5¢ | $646 | −$710 | $0 | |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Yes | 4,567 | 40.4¢ | 12.5¢ | $571 | −$1,276 | −$2,956 | |
| Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | No | 565 | 70¢ | 73¢ | $412 | +$17 | $0 | |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | Yes | 3,119 | 33.9¢ | 10.5¢ | $328 | −$730 | $0 | |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? | No | 237 | 85¢ | 88¢ | $209 | +$7.12 | −$17 | |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,111 | 58¢ | 18.5¢ | $206 | −$439 | $0 | |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | Yes | 1,133 | 13¢ | 17.5¢ | $198 | +$51 | $0 | |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15? | Yes | 2,140 | 6¢ | 7¢ | $150 | +$21 | $0 | |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31? | Yes | 11.5k | 13.8¢ | 1.3¢ | $150 | −$1,438 | $0 | |
| Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? | Yes | 444 | 62¢ | 30.5¢ | $135 | −$140 | $0 | |
| Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime? | No | 143 | 55¢ | 71.5¢ | $102 | +$24 | $0 | |
| No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27? | Hike 25 bps | 621 | 71¢ | 15¢ | $93 | −$348 | $0 | |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be TIME Person of the Year 2026? | Yes | 921 | 6¢ | 7.5¢ | $69 | +$14 | $0 | |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | Yes | 741 | 56¢ | 8.5¢ | $63 | −$352 | $0 | |
| Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | Yes | 405 | 19.8¢ | 8¢ | $32 | −$48 | $0 | |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 2,432 | 17.3¢ | 0.1¢ | $2.43 | −$418 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 101k | 1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$977 | $0 | |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | Yes | 56.2k | 19.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$10.8k | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | Yes | 46.6k | 38.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$17.9k | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026? | Yes | 43.5k | 18.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$7,886 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026? | Yes | 35.5k | 9.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3,489 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 35.0k | 32.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$11.3k | +$0.34 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | Yes | 34.0k | 36.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$12.5k | $0 | |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? | Yes | 26.4k | 10.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,799 | $0 | |
| Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31? | Yes | 25.8k | 26.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$6,756 | +$33 | |
| Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International Playoffs | Team Liquid | 22.2k | 37¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$8,222 | −$259 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | Yes | 22.2k | 6.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,516 | $0 | |
| Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-05-17? | Yes | 22.2k | 69¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$15.3k | −$107 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | Yes | 22.2k | 32.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$7,305 | −$8,293 | |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | Yes | 19.8k | 56.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$11.3k | −$242 | |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 18.7k | 12¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,237 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | Yes | 17.8k | 29.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5,170 | +$287 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 15.3k | 11.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,802 | −$20.7k | |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? | Yes | 14.7k | 14.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,127 | $0 | |
| Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025) | No | 13.6k | 19.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,643 | $0 | |
| Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 28? | Yes | 12.7k | 28.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3,670 | $0 | |
| Will Netanyahu use a visual aid during his UNGA speech? | No | 11.6k | 36.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$4,247 | −$107 | |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? | Yes | 11.0k | 39.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$4,385 | −$66 | |
| Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 10.8k | 23.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,561 | $0 | |
| Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 10.6k | 16.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,720 | $0 | |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30? | No | 10.0k | 10¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,000 | +$9,768 | |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | Yes | 10,000 | 15¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,500 | −$20.4k | |
| Will France win Eurovision 2026? | Yes | 9,962 | 6.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$645 | −$7.43 | |
| Will "Louis Theroux: Inside The Manosphere" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? | No | 9,734 | 32.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3,191 | $0 | |
| Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw? | No | 9,427 | 70¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$6,599 | −$59 | |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 28? | No | 9,073 | 22.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,030 | $0 | |
| Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? | No | 8,888 | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$12 | $0 | |
| Will "Sean Combs: The Reckoning" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 16, 2025) | Yes | 8,763 | 29.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,563 | $0 | |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | Yes | 8,229 | 49.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$4,079 | −$67 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 7,817 | 12.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$945 | $0 | |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | Yes | 7,799 | 43.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3,417 | −$3,425 | |
| Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 9, 2025) | No | 7,735 | 1.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$129 | $0 | |
| Will Mikey Madison be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors? | No | 7,181 | 63.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$4,549 | $0 | |
| Will Trump say "Iran" in Corpus Christi on Friday? | Yes | 7,129 | 2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$140 | $0 | |
| Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? | No | 7,127 | 22.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,607 | −$20 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 7,110 | 17.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,233 | $0 | |
| Will "Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025) | Yes | 7,049 | 56.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3,974 | +$8.08 | |
| Will "Run Away" be the top global Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026) | Yes | 6,916 | 19.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,352 | $0 | |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? | No | 6,876 | 10¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$688 | −$25 | |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? | No | 6,666 | 48.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3,244 | $0 | |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? | Yes | 6,357 | 9.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$625 | $0 | |
| Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24? | Yes | 6,352 | 25.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,626 | +$9.58 | |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14? | Yes | 6,021 | 33.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,034 | $0 | |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? | Yes | 6,007 | 35¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,102 | +$60 | |
| Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? | Yes | 5,786 | 7.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$455 | −$2,426 | |
| Will "Man Vs Baby" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 16, 2025) | No | 5,761 | 19.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,142 | $0 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | Yes | 5,626 | 38¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,138 | $0 | |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15? | Yes | 5,424 | 49.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,705 | −$9.93 | |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? | No | 5,169 | 20.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,077 | −$218 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | No | 4,935 | 12¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$592 | $0 | |
| Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21? | Yes | 4,821 | 13.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$642 | $0 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | Yes | 4,600 | 11.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$529 | $0 | |
| Will "Virgin River: Season 7" be the top US Netflix show this week? | Yes | 4,600 | 9.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$442 | $0 | |
| Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | No | 4,567 | 22¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,005 | $0 | |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | Yes | 4,553 | 29.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,342 | −$410 | |
| Will UpScrolled be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30? | Yes | 4,444 | 8.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$380 | +$2,563 | |
| Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8? | Yes | 4,424 | 30.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,366 | −$12 | |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 20? | No | 4,078 | 6.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$277 | $0 | |
| Will Zohran Mamdani rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? | Yes | 4,071 | 46.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,911 | $0 | |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31? | Yes | 4,070 | 3.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$133 | $0 | |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 3,896 | 9.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$374 | −$0.08 | |
| Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 6? | Yes | 3,871 | 4.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$180 | $0 | |
| Will the DHS shutdown last 21 days or more? | No | 3,867 | 39.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,537 | $0 | |
| Will Norway be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | Yes | 3,454 | 10.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$349 | −$5.45 | |
