sharpside
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Traders/Rank #1,956

moonlight2020

0x407…1bae
SharpPnL 10k+WR 60+PoliticsCryptoSportOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$43.2kvol $3.63M
PnL 30d+$7,688gains $10.2k · losses $8,127
PnL 7d+$2,161win rate 7d 40.0%
Win rate66.9%adj 65.9% · 30d 64.3%
Open value$58.5kcash n/a
Positions26 / 341open / all-time
Max drawdown−21.7%of equity peak
Account age6molast trade 6h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$47.1kbelow peak $0Oct 8

SharpScore inputs

73/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale66
Adjusted win rateraw 66.9% · shrunk toward 50%65
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable84
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity78

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 26

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?No30.0k50¢51.5¢$15.4k+$435$0
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes30.0k50¢48.6¢$14.6k−$435$0
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes10,00071.6¢85.7¢$8,565+$1,410+$408
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No5,00093¢94.5¢$4,725+$75$0
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No5,00080.4¢84.5¢$4,225+$205$0
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes3,05565.6¢69.7¢$2,128+$124$0
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes3,00034.3¢57.8¢$1,732+$703$0
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?No6,00019.4¢20¢$1,200+$38$0
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes6,00017.9¢15.2¢$909−$165$0
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes5,00014.2¢17.8¢$893+$183$0
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?No4,56321.6¢18.5¢$844−$142$0
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?No1,09163¢74.5¢$813+$125$0
Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?No88876.6¢83¢$737+$56$0
Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 8?No1,00066.4¢46.5¢$465−$199$0
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026?No45589¢90¢$409+$4.55$0
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes10,0002.6¢2.8¢$275+$20$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Yes1,00020.7¢20.5¢$205−$1.67+$6.67
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No10099.4¢99.7¢$100+$0.25$0
Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?No17025¢53.5¢$91+$48$0
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Yes10074¢73.5¢$74−$0.50$0
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by December 31?Yes3849¢6.8¢$26−$8.64+$1.16
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?Yes1,00061¢2¢$20−$590$0
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026?No1446¢94.5¢$14+$7.02$0
Will Jynxzi, Ron, and Los have between 90 and 119 Minecraft deaths during the marathon?Yes1,5498.5¢0.3¢$4.65−$126$0
Will over 50 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?Yes4038.5¢6¢$2.39−$13$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes160¢18.5¢$0.20−$0.45−$3.96

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?84.6¢1,699$1,43767%73Sharp
SELL NoWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?86¢5,000$4,30067%73Sharp
BUY NoWill Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 8?67¢800$53667%73Sharp
BUY YesWill Jynxzi, Ron, and Los have between 90 and 119 Minecraft deaths during the marathon?8.5¢1,549$13167%73Sharp
BUY NoWill Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?25¢170$4367%73Sharp
BUY NoWill Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?77.4¢620$48067%73Sharp
BUY NoWill Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?23¢2,240$51567%73Sharp
BUY NoWill Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?22¢1,738$38267%73Sharp
SELL YesIsrael accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?4¢5,000$20067%73Sharp
BUY YesUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?23¢1,031$23767%73Sharp
BUY NoNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026?46¢14$6.6667%73Sharp
BUY YesWill Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?69.9¢555$38867%73Sharp
BUY YesWill Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?64.6¢2,500$1,61567%73Sharp
SELL NoAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?75¢20$1567%73Sharp
BUY YesWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?56.1¢2,000$1,12267%73Sharp
BUY YesIsrael accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?17¢1,000$17067%73Sharp
BUY YesWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?59.5¢5,000$2,97367%73Sharp
SELL NoWill STRC hit $100 by September 30?93¢1,000$93067%73Sharp
SELL NoWill STRC hit $100 by September 30?75¢420$31567%73Sharp
SELL YesWill Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?3.4¢2,000$6867%73Sharp